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Situation and Outlook - December 2001
The forecast for world oilseed production rose 142,000 tons for December to just under 323.0 million tons. A rise in the world soybean production forecast, up 270,000 tons, coupled with a nearly 200,000 ton increase in forecast rapeseed production, more than offset a 255,000 ton decline in expected cottonseed production and a 70,000 ton fall in sunflowerseed production this month. Argentina’s soybean production for 2001/02 is expected to rise 750,000 tons to 28.75 million tons as rain delayed sunflowerseed planting benefits shorter season soybeans. This increase more than offset a drought induced fall of 450,000 tons in Canadian soybean production. Canadian rapeseed production rose 200,000 tons on higher than expected yields to 5 million. Bad weather and insect infestations reduced yields and were responsible for the 180,000 ton decline in Indian cottonseed production. The modest decline in world sunflowerseed production was due to a 100,000 ton fall in both Romania and Russia, which more than offset a rise in Hungary’s production of 130,000 tons. Tight world sunflowerseed supplies are expected to get tighter, which helps firm prices and increase the prospect for improved grower returns.
Exports of major oilseeds are forecast 900,000 tons higher for December to 71.6 million tons. Most of this increase is due to larger exports of soybeans from the U.S. and Argentina, up 545,000 and 400,000 tons respectively. Rapeseed exports are expected to rise 120,000 tons, with Canadian exports rising 100,000 tons to 2.55 million. Sunflowerseed exports are forecast to decline 95,000 tons, led by Russia and Romania at 160,000 tons and 15,000 tons respectively, more than offsetting higher Hungarian exports of 50,000 tons and 20,000 tons more from Bulgaria. December’s estimates show Russian and Ukranian exports of sunflowerseed are expected to decline precipitously from last year, from a combined 1.8 million tons to 370,000 tons due to government regulations aimed at retaining a larger share of the reduced production for crushing domestically in order to export more oil.
The worldwide oilseed crush rose just over 1 million tons this month. Soybeans and sunflowerseed accounted for all of the additional crush, rising 1.2 million tons and 129,000 tons respectively. The EU and Argentina accounted for most of the increase in soybean crush this month rising 775,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively. Higher demand for soybean meal to replace bonemeal in feed as well as soybean oil to replace rape and sun oils have led to higher crushing margins in the EU.
Global oilseed exports for 2001/02 are forecast to increase only slightly this month to 35.6 million tons, as an increase in soybean oil exports was partially offset by a decline in olive oil trade. The increase in soybean oil trade was due primarily to a 200,000-ton increase in imports to China. Worldwide stocks of oilseeds dropped 622,000 tons, with soybeans showing a fall of 687,000 tons, due to higher exports, and rapeseed stocks rising 50,000 tons.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Nov 21 2001 | India | TRQ's Notified for Rape/Sun/Safflower Oils
Nov 26 2001 | France | New EU Directive May Boost French Oilseed Production
Nov 29 2001 | India | Oilseeds & Products Update - December
Dec 6 2001 | Netherlands |U.S. Soybean Exports Stable and Brazilian Soybean Shipments Surge
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