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Situation and Outlook - November 2001
The forecast for world oilseed production rose 1.5 million tons for November to 322.8 million tons. A boost in the world soybean production forecast, up 1.8 million tons, coupled with an increase in forecast cottonseed production, more than offset a 710,000-ton decline in expected sunflowerseed production this month. Argentina’s soybean production is expected to rise 1.0 million tons to 28.0 million tons in the coming crop year as growers continue to show a preference for soybean plantings. Improved soybean yield forecasts for the U.S. also contribute to the rise in world soybean supply with the U.S. production estimate reaching a record 79.5 million tons in 2001. The decline in world sunflowerseed production is in response to lower production forecasts for Argentina, Eastern Europe, and the EU. Wet weather in Argentina has forced growers to cut back on sunflowerseed acreage in favor of soybeans. However, Argentina’s sunflowerseed production, at 3.7 million tons, is up nearly 500,000 tons from last year. Tight world sunflowerseed supplies have helped firm prices and increase the potential for improved grower returns leading to the increase in acreage relative to 2000/01.
Exports of major oilseeds are expected to rise 353,000 tons to 70.7 million tons. An increase in Argentina’s soybean exports and Australia’s rapeseed exports more than offset a lower sunflowerseed export forecast. Lower exports expected from the Ukraine and Russia accounted for nearly half of the decline as domestic crushers push to expand production and exports of sunflowerseed oil. The remaining declines in exports are expected from Eastern Europe and Argentina. World soybean import forecasts for both 2000/01 and 2001/02 were increased this month due to recent trade trends noted for Germany. Reduced availability of sunflowerseed also resulted in a decline in expected EU sunflowerseed imports this month.
The worldwide oilseed crush rose 822,000 tons this month, mirroring the growth in production. Cottonseed and soybeans accounted for most of the additional crush, rising 396,000 tons and 851,000 tons respectively. Reduced sunflowerseed production led to a 448,000-ton decrease in sunflowerseed crush, partially offsetting the gains noted above. The EU accounted for most of the increase in soybean crush this month as the U.S. crush forecast rose only 136,000 tons in November.
Soybean stocks worldwide rose nearly 800,000 tons to 29.8 million tons with the increase equally divided between the U.S. and Argentina. Lower expected sunflowerseed stocks helped reduce the overall increase in world oilseed stocks to 33.4 million tons.
Increased soybean and cottonseed crush offset reduced sunflowerseed crush resulting in a higher world protein meal production forecast this month. In contrast, forecast world vegetable oil production for November declined marginally as reduced sunflowerseed oil production offset increases in soybean and cottonseed oil production. Correspondingly, world protein meal trade increased while the vegetable oil trade forecast declined this month. Vegetable oil stocks were increased this month in response to the increase in soybean oil supplies and adjustments in palm kernel exports.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Nov 7 2001 | Turkey | Sunflower Seed and Sunoil Import Duty Changes
Nov 2 2001 | India | GOI Drops Duty on Palm Oil
Oct 31 2001 | India | Oilseeds & Products Update - November
Oct 17 2001 | Philippines |Coconut Authority Transferred
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