Situation and Outlook - October 2001
The forecast for world oilseed production rose 5.2 million tons for October to more than 321 million tons. Small declines in the expected production of cottonseed, peanut, and rapeseed were more than offset by the 5.2-million-ton jump in soybean production, and to a lesser extent, the 150,000-ton increase in palm kernel output. Brazils production of soybeans is expected to rise 2.5 million tons to 41.5 million, while Argentinas soybean crop is now expected to reach 27 million tons, 1 million higher than the previous estimate. US production is expected to rise 2 million tons to a record 79.1 million tons.
Exports of major oilseeds are expected to rise 1.8 million tons to just over 70 million tons. Except for some minor adjustments to the rapeseed, peanut, cottonseed and sunflowerseed estimates, virtually all of the increase is attributable to soybean exports, which are expected to rise to 57.3 million tons from 55.5 million last month. The forecast for US soybean exports is 272,000 tons lower, while Brazilian and Argentinian exports are projected 1.75 million and 500,000 higher respectively.
The worldwide crush of oilseeds rose 2.2 million tons this month, mirroring the pattern of production, where palm kernel and soybean crush represented most of the added crush, rising 150,000 tons and 2.0 million tons respectively. Significant increases in soybean crush are expected in the EU, up 765,000 tons, Brazil, up 500,000, and Argentina, up 300,000. The crush of soybeans in the US remained the same as domestic meal use increased and offset a weakening of expected exports.
Soybean stocks worldwide rose nearly 2.9 million tons to 29 million tons. Most of the increase came in US stocks, which rose a dramatic 2.5 million tons to 9.4 million tons. Brazilian stocks rose a more modest 150,000 tons, and Argentina posted a 200,000-ton rise, both reflecting their propensity to export a large share of any increased production. The change in US stocks reflects an adjustment to carry in stocks, higher production estimates, as well as weaker exports. The higher soybean stocks put downward pressure on prices, causing a fall in the estimated price range from $4.40-$5.40 per bushel to $3.90-$4.70 per bushel.
Edible oil production is expected to rise 256,000 tons to a record 90.6 million. The 400,000 ton rise in soybean oil more than offsets declines of 100,000 tons of palm oil, and smaller reductions in sunflowerseed oil and cottonseed oil. Exports of edible oils are expected to decline 100,000 tons leading to a slight increase in ending stocks as domestic consumption rises less than the increase in available oils.
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For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Oct 9 2001 | Canada | Soybean Exporters Launch New IP Standards
Oct 5 2001 | Romania | GOR Bans Sunflowerseed Exports/Waives Import Duties
Oct 3 2001 | India | Oilseeds & Products Update - October
Sep 13 2001 | Slovakia | Oilseed Situation
Sep 13 2001 | Turkey | Soybean and Products Update