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Situation and Outlook - September 2001
The global oilseed trade forecast for 2001/02 was reduced 698,000 tons this month to 68.5 million tons. Largely responsible for the reduction in trade were the sunflowerseed and soybean export forecasts. In both cases, lower production forecasts were responsible for the reduced export forecast. In soybeans, production fell 1.4 million tons month-to-month on a 924,000-ton reduction in the U.S. soybean crop due to reduced yield prospects and an additional 500,000-ton reduction in Canada. The lower production figures caused soybean export prospects to decline 137,000 tons in the U.S. and 100,000 tons in Canada. The sunflowerseed production forecast declined 1 million tons, due primarily to poor crop conditions in Russia and the Ukraine. Global oilseed trade for 2000/01 was revised upwards nearly 900,000 tons, primarily due to increased soybean exports from Brazil (500,000 tons) and the U.S. (136,000 tons).
World oilseed crush for 2001/02 was lowered 448,000 tons to 260.4 million tons. The reduced sunflowerseed production forecasts led to lower sunflowerseed crush prospects 802,000 tons to 19.3 million tons. Partially offsetting this decrease ere slight increases to both soybean and rapeseed crush. Soybean crush was increased in both the U.S. and Mexico. Oilseed crush for 2000/01 was revised upwards to 252.6 million tons. Soybean crush in 2000/01 was increased throughout the Americas, including the U.S. (137,000 tons), Mexico (150,000 tons), and Argentina (200,000 tons).
Global ending stocks for 2001/02 saw large changes this month, with a decline of nearly 2.5 million tons from the previous month’s forecast. Total oilseed ending stocks are now forecast to reach 29.8 million tons, 3.2 million tons below the 2000/01 level. Almost the entire reduction in ending stocks for 2001/02 were seen in soybeans, which are now forecast at 26.2 million tons. U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced 1.2 million tons due to a combination of reduced production prospects and a lower carry-in stock figure from 2000/01. Ending stocks were also reduced in Brazil (500,000 tons) and Argentina (200,000 tons) due to greater exports and crush prospects. China’s ending stocks were also lowered 500,000 tons to account for a lowered import forecast in 2001/02.
The 2001/02 world protein meal figures were adjusted only slightly this month. Trade projections remained mostly unchanged, while consumption increased slightly due to higher soybean meal consumption in Asia and the Middle East. Meal ending stocks also remained nearly unchanged.
Global vegetable oil trade for 2001/02 was increased slightly this month to 35.3 million tons. A 100,000-ton increase in palm oil exports from Indonesia was most responsible for the increase. Vegetable oil ending stocks were also increased 185,000 tons this month, as the U.S. soybean oil ending stocks forecast was raised 19 percent to over 1.0 million tons.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Sep 13 2001 | Slovakia | Oilseed Situation
Sep 13 2001 | Turkey | Soybean and Products Update
Sep 12 2001 | Japan | Japan's Soybean Production on the Rise
Sep 11 2001 | India | Oilseeds and Products: September Update
Sep 3 2001 | Malaysia | Oilseeds and Products Update (Aug)
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