September 2001 Edition
As South American Held Stocks Replace U.S. Stocks, Prices Remain Under Pressure & Export Patterns Shift
Despite the recent declines in U.S. soybean ending stock levels, global stock levels remain large and will keep prices in check heading into the 2001/02 marketing year. Stock levels have seen a fundamental shift into South America as U.S. holdings at the end of its marketing year show a pattern of overall decreases. U.S. ending stocks for the 2000/01 marketing year are projected to reach only 6.5 million tons, the lowest level since the 1997/98 marketing year, while global stocks are estimated to nearly 28.4 million tons, an increase from a year earlier. South America, with its recent production increases, on an October-September marketing year basis holds over 2 times the amount of soybean stocks the U.S. does, compared to the 1990's when stock levels between the two hemispheres were almost equal. This shift in stocks has also created greater competition for exports in markets that have been traditionally serviced by the U.S., as South American soybeans are priced to reduce higher stock levels.
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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA