Situation and Outlook - August 2001
The world oilseed export forecast for 2000/01 increased nearly 1.0 million tons this month to 69.2 million tons. Soybeans, and to a lessor extent rapeseed, account for most of the increase. Argentinas 2000/01 soybean export forecast was raised 700.000 tons this month to 6.7 million tons in response to continued strong import demand by China. Canadas rapeseed export forecast is increased to a record 4.8 million tons for 2000/01 spurred by ample supplies and strong demand in China.
Forecast world oilseed exports for 2001/02 are also increased this month to 69.2 million tons. Continued growth in soybean exports, up 810,000 tons from Julys forecast and 2.6 million tons from the current 2000/01 forecast, accounts for most of the increase. An increase in forecast exports from Argentina and Brazil in response to an increased soybean production forecast for 2001/02 was partially offset by a lower U.S. soybean export forecast of 27.1 million tons. The decline in U.S. exports reflects a somewhat lower 2001 soybean production forecast of 78.0 million tons as areas of hot, dry weather contribute to lower yields.
Partially offsetting the increase in forecast 2001/02 soybean exports is a decline in rapeseed exports for the coming year. Dry weather in Canada, coupled with reduced plantings this year are expected to result in a 26 percent reduction in output to 5.3 million tons compared to the 2000 crop. Rapeseed production in the EU for 2001/02 was also reduced 400,000 tons this month due principally to a decline in forecast production in France. Together, this resulted in a 445,000-ton decrease in total forecast world rapeseed exports to 7.5 million tons in 2001/02. As a result, total oilseed exports are expected to remain nearly flat in 2001/02 compared to a year earlier.
Forecast oilseed crush for both 2000/01 and 2001/02 remained nearly steady this month resulting in little change in meal and oil production. Total oilseed meal production for 2001/02 is forecast at 180.1 million tons, 6.5 million tons greater than the previous year. Forecast rapeseed meal production is reduced 400,000 tons in 2001/02 but is offset by increases in soybean, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and fishmeal production. Total vegetable and marine oil production for 2001/02 is forecast at 90.6 million tons, up 220,000 tons from the July forecast and 2.4 million tons higher than the previous year. Lower rapeseed oil production is more than offset by increases in sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and palm kernel oil production.
World meal and oil export forecasts for 2001/02 are increased 420,000 and 320,000 tons respectively this month with increases in soybean and sunflowerseed meal and oil accounting for most of the adjustment. Forecast global consumption of meal and oil increased marginally from last months figures.
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For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
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Aug 7 2001 | Jamaica & Dep | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Aug 1 2001 | France | Oilseeds and Products Update
Jul 18 2001 | European Union | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jul 13 2001 | Romania | Oilseeds and Products Update June 2001