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Situation and Outlook - July 2001
USDA projects global oilseed trade to reach 68.9 million tons in marketing year 2001/02, a slight increase over 2000/01. The soybean sector leads this growth, with the European Union and China soybean imports both rising. Demand for soybeans in the EU is likely to stem from decreasing imports of rapeseed and sunflowerseed, as well as Germany’s growing integration of biodiesel into its fuel supply. China’s imports will once again rise based on the country’s increasing crushing capacity and its need to meet the feed demand of the country’s growing poultry industry. U.S. soybean exports in MY 2001/02 are projected to increase slightly as demand for soybean imports in many Asian countries, as well as in Mexico, is expected to grow. U.S. soybean supplies will reach a record high of 79.9 million tons, with production up 4.5 million tons over the previous year. South American soybean exports are projected to rise in 2001/02; however, South American supplies in 2001/02 may be lower than previously anticipated because what was thought to be a banner year for production now appears likely to yield only moderate gains in Brazil and a slight decrease in Argentina. In MY 2000/01, U.S. and Argentine soybean export estimates remained the same over the previous month, but Brazil’s export estimate increased 700,000 tons, primarily due to increased exports to China.
USDA projects world rapeseed and sunflowerseed trade to decrease in 2001/02, as production in key exporting countries is likely to fall below 2000/2001 levels. Rapeseed exports will likely fall to 8.3 million tons, due entirely to a projected 1.1-million-ton decrease in Canadian rapeseed exports. The 2001/02 projection for world sunflowerseed trade of 2.9 million tons is 12 percent lower than that of 2000/01, due mainly to a 1.8-million-ton decrease in sunflowerseed production in Russia and the Ukraine. Export projections for these two countries combined are nearly 500,000 tons lower in 2001/02. Projections for both cottonseed and peanut production are higher in the out-year, but world trade in these products will likely remain steady in 2001/02 as these production gains are likely to be consumed domestically.
The projected increase in world protein meal trade to 56.5 million tons in 2001/02 is due to increased import demand for soybean meal in the EU and Eastern Europe. Fueling this demand is the ban on meat and bone meal in many countries in these regions. Soybean meal exports from the U.S. are projected to remain the same in 2001/02, but projections for Brazil, Argentina, and the EU, where many U.S. beans are crushed and re-exported, are all higher.
The world vegetable oil consumption projection for 2001/02 is a record 90.6 million tons, representing a three percent rate of growth. The largest increases in absolute terms are for soybean oil and palm oil, but the fastest growth projections are for cottonseed oil and peanut oil, growing at seven percent and nine percent respectively. Given the decreased availability of sunflowerseed oil, the Middle East and Northern Africa are likely to switch a significant portion of their imports away from sunflowerseed oil and towards the more readily-available soybean and palm oils. Globally, soybean oil exports from South America and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. will benefit from the reduced production of sunflowerseed oil in the Former Soviet Union and in Argentina.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Jul 4 2001 | Belgium-Luxembourg | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 22 2001 | Zimbabwe | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 12 2001 | Netherlands | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 11 2001 | South Africa, Republic of | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 11 2001 | United Kingdom | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 8 2001 | Germany | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jun 6 2001 | Colombia | Andean Community Variable Duties Distort Soy Meal Trade
Jun 6 2001 | France | Oilseeds and Products Annual
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