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Situation and Outlook - May 2001
Global oilseed production estimates for 2000/01 rose nearly 1 million tons this month to 307.7 million tons. Increased South American soybean production accounted for most of the adjustment. Brazil’s soybean crop was raised 1.0 million tons to a record 36.5 million tons, while Paraguay’s production estimate was raised 300,000 tons to 3.4 million tons. Peanut production also was increased as China’s crop was revised upward. Reductions in both sunflowerseed and rapeseed production, however, offset some of the additional soybeans and peanuts. Rapeseed production was cut 430,000 tons due primarily to a lowering of India’s crop. Sunflowerseed production fell short of last month’s estimate by 241,000 tons, as Spain’s production estimate was curtailed significantly.
The global oilseed trade forecast for 2000/01 was raised 900,000 tons to 65.9 million tons, with increases in soybean, rapeseed, and cottonseed trade. Soybean exports were increased to 49.7 million tons. The increased production in Brazil and Paraguay led their soybean export forecasts to increase 400,000 and 150,000 tons, respectively. U.S. soybean exports for 2000/01 remained unchanged at 26.9 million tons. The additional South American soybean exports are expected to fill strong demand in Asia, in particular to China (300,000-ton increase), Indonesia (270,000-ton increase), and Japan (100,000-ton increase). Canada’s rapeseed exports were increased to meet growing demand in China. Australia’s cottonseed exports were also increased to meet world demand.
World oilseed crush for 2000/01 remained nearly unchanged this month, at 252.0 million tons. Crush estimates for soybeans, peanuts, copra, and palm kernel increased, but were offset by decreases in cottonseed, rapeseed and sunflowerseed. U.S. soybean crush was raised 136,000 tons on increased domestic demand. Increased soybean crush was also added in Paraguay.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 rose to 33.2 million tons and reflect adjustments in soybean stocks which accounted for an additional 809,000 tons from month to month. Soybean ending stock levels were revised higher in Brazil (600,000 tons) as the increased export forecast through October was unable to keep pace with their increased production estimate. The total increase in soybean stocks was slightly offset by a decline in U.S. ending stocks, which were forecast 132,000 tons lower to 8.0 million tons due to the increased crush demand in the U.S.
2000/01 soybean meal exports were also increased this month to 39.7 million tons. Greater import demand from the E.U. was met by a rise in South American exports. Soybean oil trade was little changed from last month. Increased oilseed imports to China dampened demand for vegetable oil imports, but the decline was offset by increased export prospects to India. Global palm oil trade for 2000/01 increased 368,000 tons to 16.1 million tons. Higher production in both Malaysia and Indonesia also led to an increase in palm oil ending stocks to 3.3. million tons.
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Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
May 9 2001 | Egypt | Oilseed and Products Annual
May 8 2001 | Argentina | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 4 2001 | Bangladesh | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 4 2001 | Indonesia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 4 2001 | Japan | Oilseeds and Products Annual
May 2 2001 | Philippines | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Apr 30 2001 | Paraguay | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Apr 30 2001 | Tunisia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
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