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May 2001 Edition
Record U.S. Soybean Production in 2001 Expected to Lead to Higher Ending Stocks
Record U.S. soybean production combined with strong competition from South America is expected to lead to record ending stocks in the United States in marketing year 2001/02. U.S. soybean production in 2001 is forecast at 81.2 million tons, 3.8 million tons higher than last year. Despite the increased production levels and steady growth in domestic crushing, U.S. exports are projected at 26.7 million tons, slightly below the 2000/01 marketing year’s estimate of 26.9 million tons. Increased competition in the upcoming Oct.-Dec. period from remaining record South America supplies is expected to keep U.S. exports from expanding. Without increased exports to remove excess supply, U.S. ending stocks are forecast to reach 13.6 million tons, a 69.7 percent increase from 2000/01 estimated ending stocks of 8.0 million tons. The abundant supply is expected to lead the marketing year average soybean price in 2001/02 to range between $3.90 and $4.50 per bushel. U.S. soybean product exports are seen mixed in 2001/02. Soybean meal exports are expected to decrease 136,000 tons to 6.1 million tons, while soybean oil exports are expected to increase 21 percent to 771,000 tons. (See Table 11 for details.)
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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
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