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Situation and Outlook - March 2001
The global oilseeds production estimate for 2000/01 was increased this month to 306.0 million metric tons. A 1.0-million-ton increase in the Argentine soybean crop to 25.0 million tons accounts for the major adjustment this month. Beneficial late rains raised yield prospects for both first and second soybean crops in Argentina. China’s soybean production was also increased this month by 300,000 tons to 15.7 million tons, while India’s soybean crop is forecasted at 5.3 million tons down 4 percent from last month. Sunflowerseed and rapeseed production continues to fall short of earlier estimates, down this month due to a 200,000 ton reduction in China’s sunflowerseed crop and a 200,000 ton drop in India’s rapeseed crop to 5.3 million tons based on reduced yields. Unexpected indications of strong soybean shipments and crush during the October 2000-January 2001 period in Brazil, support a larger 1999/2000 soybean production estimate at 34.0 million tons up, 2 percent from last month.
The global oilseed trade forecast was increased 614,000 tons to 64.6 million tons. The increase was primarily due to increased soybean exports by the three major exporters (the U.S., Brazil and Argentina). U.S. soybean exports for 2000/01 are forecast at 26.5 million tons this month reflecting continued growth in China’s import potential. The larger global oilseed import forecast includes soybean imports up nearly 850,000 tons with China, up 700,000 tons, and the Middle East/North Africa Region, up 190,000 tons. China’s rapeseed import forecast was reduced 300,000 tons this month due in part to the forecast in soybean imports.
World oilseed crush for 2000/01 was also raised slightly this month increasing 95,000 tons to 251.8 million tons. Increases in soybean and palm kernel crush were partially offset by decreases in the sunflowerseed, rapeseed and peanut crush estimates. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 at 32.3 million tons reflect large adjustments in soybean stocks which account for an additional 1.9 million tons from month to month. Soybean ending stock levels were increased in Brazil due to revisions made in prior years’ residual and ending stocks starting in 1997/98. The U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast was lowered 4 percent to 9.4 million tons in 2000/01 but remains above last year’s level.
Total soybean meal production was increased slightly reflecting higher output in Argentina and China despite the decline in the U.S. and India soybean meal production. Similarly, soybean oil production was increased to 26.0 million tons. Global protein meal trade for 2000/01 was lowered slightly this month as higher fishmeal exports were offset by reduced soybean, copra, cottonseed, and rapeseed meal exports. Global vegetable oil trade at 26.4 million tons is supported by larger palm oil production in Indonesia and a 65,000-ton increase in soybean oil exports for 2000/01.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Mar 6 2001 | Guatemala | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Mar 5 2001 | Korea, Republic of | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 28 2001 | Spain | Oilseeds: Imports and Exports - September 2000
Feb 16 2001 | Turkey | Soybean and products update
Feb 15 2001 | Nigeria | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 14 2001 | Colombia | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 8 2001 | Cote d'Ivoire | Oilseeds and Products Annual
Feb 7 2001 | Morocco | Oilseeds and Products Annual
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