Situation and Outlook - February 2001
The global oilseeds production estimate was increased for both 1999/2000 and 2000/01 to 303.5 and 305.2 million tons, respectively. This change was prompted by increases in Argentine and Brazilian soybean production estimates due to expected higher yields across the region and helped by an increase in area planted in Brazil. Combined production for both Argentina and Brazil was increased 1.2 million tons in 1999/2000 and 1.4 million ton in 2000/01. The global oilseeds trade forecast was increased 821,000 tons to 64.0 million tons. The increase was primarily due to increased soybean exports by Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by a reduction in the U.S. soybean export forecast. The global soybean import forecast was increased nearly 900,000 tons this month with China, up 800,000 tons, and Mexico, up 100,000 tons. Chinas rapeseed import forecast was reduced 200,000 tons this month due in part to the increase in soybean imports.
World oilseed crush was also raised this month in response to the increased production expected in South America and larger copra crush for the Philippines for 1999/2000 and 2000/01. Total oilseed crush was increased 555,000 tons in 2000/01 but was nearly unchanged for 1999/2000 as the increase in copra crush offset declines in soybean crush for the United States, Brazil, and Asia. Global oilseed ending stocks were increased for both 1999/2000 and 2000/01 reaching 32.4 and 30.3 million tons respectively. However, stocks are expected to decline year-to-year from 1999/2000 primarily due to lower rapeseed stocks in Canada. Soybean ending stock levels were increased in South America mostly for 1999/2000 and carried over into the current year. The U.S. ending stocks forecast rose to 9.4 million tons in 2000/01, an increase of nearly 1.5 million tons from the 1999/2000 stock level. As a result, the year-to-year change in global soybean ending stocks for 2000/01 shifted from a net decline of 600,000 tons in January to a net increase of 326,000 tons this month.
With the increase in crush for 2000/01, production of soybean meal and oil rose. Total soybean meal production was increased 390,000 tons to 114.4 million tons. Increased production in South America and China offset a decline in U.S. soybean meal production. Similarly, soybean oil production was increased 109,000 tons to 26.0 million tons with South American and Chinese production increases offsetting declines in the United States. Production of rapeseed meal and oil were reduced due to the decline in crush in China. Global protein meal trade for 2000/01 was nearly unchanged this month as lower soybean meal exports were offset by increased copra meal exports from the Philippines. A similar situation exists with global vegetable oil trade except the increase in coconut oil exports more than offset the decline in soybean oil exports for 2000/01. Much of the additional coconut oil is expected to be imported by the European Union. With the increase in production of meal and oil this month, global ending stocks of both products for 2000/01 were increased.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Jan 31 2001- Philippines Copra and Copra Products PSD Update
Jan 12 2001- Venezuela Import Licenses Awarded Within the Oilseed Complex
Jan 9 2001- Argentina Soybean & Sunflower Update - January
Jan 8 2001- Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update (Dec)
Jan 8 2001- Taiwan Oilseeds and Products Annual
Jan 3 2001- India Soy Oil Imports 1999/00
Dec 26 2000- Moldova, Republic of Oilseeds Market Update
Dec 21 2000- Ukraine Oilseeds and Products Annual