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Situation and Outlook - December 2000
The global oilseed trade forecast for 2000/01 was increased over 2.0 million tons this month to 62.9 million tons. Exports forecasts for nearly all oilseeds were raised this month, however soybeans and sunflowerseed exports accounted for majority of the increase. Soybean trade was increased almost 1.3 million tons as all major exporters had their export projections raised. U.S. soybeans exports are now expected to reach over 26.5 million tons, an increase of 680,000 tons from a month ago. Argentina’s export forecast was raised 300,000 tons, Brazil’s 200,000, and Paraguay's 100,000 tons. The increases are a result of increased demand from both the EU and China. The EU’s soybean import figure was raised 910,000 tons as demand is expected to increase due to the ban of meat and bone meal (see special article). China’s soybean imports were raised 300,000 tons to 7.8 million tons, in addition to a 400,000-ton increase in their 2000 soybean crop estimate. Sunflowerseed exports were increased 510,000 tons this month, reflecting increased export prospects in Russia (up 235,000 tons) and the Ukraine (up 270,000 tons).
World oilseed crush was also increased almost 1.6 millions tons for 2000/01 to 251.2 million tons. A 2.1-million-ton increase in the soybean crush forecast was partially offset by a decrease in rapeseed crush. The additional soybean meal demand in the EU contributed most prominently to the increase in crush, helping increase the crush forecast not only in the EU, but also in the U.S. and South America.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 were reduced almost 1.3 million tons from last month to 27.1 million tons, with the decrease due exclusively to lower soybean ending stocks. Soybean ending stock were decreased over 1.3 million tons to 23.4 million tons. Increased exports to the EU and China, helped lower soybean stocks in all three of the major exporting countries.
Both global protein meal and vegetable oil trade for 2000/01 were revised upward. In protein meal trade, an increase in exports month to month of soybean meal accounted nearly all of the 610,000 ton increase. The increased soybean meal trade can also be attributed to additional demand from the EU. In vegetable oils, the palm oil export forecast increased 250,000 tons to a record 14.6 million tons.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Dec 8 2000 - Argentina Soybean Exports - September
Dec 6 2000 - Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update (Nov)
Dec 1 2000 - India Oilseeds Update - December
Dec 1 2000 - Russian Federation November Oilseeds Harvest Update
Nov 30 2000 - Romania Oilseed Update (November)
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