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December 2000 Edition
2000/01 EU Soybean and Meal Import Forecast Revised Upwards
The recent discovery of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in the European Union has led the EU to ban the use of meat and bone meal (MBM) in cattle feed. This effectively eliminates 2.5 million tons of MBM annually from cattle feed that will need to be replaced. This is equivalent to 2.9 million tons of soybean meal and which a significant portion is expected to be filled through increased soybean and soybean meal imports. For 2000/01, analysis indicates that the EU could import up to 1.2 million tons SME with total SME consumption rising 1.3 million tons. This would result in a projected 900,000-ton increase in 2000/01 EU soybean imports and 500,000-ton increase in EU soybean meal imports. The U.S. is expected to account for nearly 400,000 tons of the additional soybean demand and 150,000 tons of soybean meal demand. Most of the additional U.S. exports to the EU are expected to occur during the first quarter of 2001. The remaining shortfall in feed ingredients is expected to be replaced using domestic and imported rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal, domestic feed grains, imported corn gluten feed, and domestic and imported field peas and beans. Further, we expect demand for cattle feed to decline in the short term as demand for EU beef softens. (See special article)
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
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