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Situation and Outlook - November 2000
The global oilseed export forecast for 2000/01 was raised slightly this month to 60.8 million tons, up 502,000 tons from last month. An increase in soybean and sunflowerseed exports more than offset reductions in peanut and rapeseed exports. The world soybean export forecast for 2000/01 was raised 278,000 tons to 45.4 million tons. U.S. soybean exports for 2000/01 declined to 25.9 million tons, (down 408,000 tons from last month) mostly due to increased South American soybean supplies and a weak global vegetable oil market. A decline in the 2000 U.S. soybean crop to 75.6 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from the previous month, also contributed to the reduction of the U.S. export forecast. Soybean production in Argentina is expected to increase as growers reduce plantings of sunflowerseed while continued good weather in Brazil is expected to boost soybean yields in the coming year. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 10.6 million tons in 2000/01, up 700,000 tons from last month. Global exports of sunflowerseed are expected to reach 3.3 million tons in 2000/01 mostly due to higher export estimates in the FSU.
World oilseed crush for 2000/01 was lowered to 249.6 million tons this month, down 598,000 tons due to a 745,000-ton and 200,000-ton decline in peanut and rapeseed crush, respectively. The decline in peanut crush reflects a smaller harvest in India where disease, exacerbated by very dry conditions in the major producing region of Gujarat, and flooding in Andhra Pradesh (the second largest peanut growing state) have hurt yields. Rapeseed crush reflects reduced production in Eastern Europe.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 at 28.4 million tons are up 427,000 tons with soybeans accounting for the increase. The ending stock forecast for Brazil and Argentina was raised this month due to their increased production while the U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to reach 9.5 million tons, down 395,000 tons from last month’s estimate because of a reduced production forecast.
The 2000/01 world protein meal trade projection was reduced slightly this month mostly due to a decline in soybean meal and sunflowerseed meal exports. The soybean meal adjustments include a reduction in the U.S. and Brazil export forecasts and a higher export forecast for Argentina reflecting increased supplies. Lower sunflowerseed meal exports reflect a reduced sunflowerseed production forecast for Argentina in 2000/01.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (.pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) and WordPerfect format (.wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Nov 6 2000- Argentina Soybean Update - November
Nov 3 2000 - India Oilseeds Update - November
Nov 3 2000 - Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update (Oct)
Nov 2 2000 - Philippines Coconut Industry Seeks Government Intervention
Oct 30 2000 - Morocco Oilseeds and Products - Import Duties Down
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