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Situation and Outlook
The global oilseed trade forecast for 2000/01 was reduced 90,000 tons this month to 60.5 million tons. A reduction in the soybean export forecast was only partially offset by increases in sunflowerseed and rapeseed trade. The U.S. accounted for all of the decline in soybean trade as exports were forecast 272,000 tons lower, yet still at a record level of 27.2 million tons. The reduced export forecast was in response to a decrease in projected U.S. production to 78.9 million tons, 2.4 million tons below the August estimate. Dry, hot weather in the Delta and Western Corn Belt resulted in a lowering of soybean yield prospects from 40.7 to 39.5 bushels per acre. The rapeseed trade forecast was increased 90,000 due to improved export prospects for Canada, while sunflowerseed exports from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) were increased 100,000 tons.
World oilseed crush for 2000/01 was lowered to 250.3 million tons this month as a 190,000-ton increase in soybean crush was overshadowed by a 470,000-ton reduction in the sunflowerseed crush. The decline in sunflowerseed crush was the result of lower production estimates in Eastern Europe and South Africa, increased exports by the FSU, and reduced imports in the EU. The increase in the soybean crush was the result of increased crush demand in the U.S.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 saw large changes this month, with a decline of almost 4.0 million tons from the previous month’s forecast. Total oilseed ending stocks for 2000/01 are currently forecast to reach 24.3 million tons. Both soybean and rapeseed ending stock estimates were lowered this month due to reductions in their production forecasts. U.S. soybean ending stocks are now projected to reach 9.9 million tons, well below last month’s 12.7 million ton figure, but still slightly above the record 9.5 million tons reached in 1998/99. Rapeseed production declines in Australia and France ultimately led to a reduction in ending stocks for 2000/01. Forecast rapeseed ending stocks were reduced in Canada and France. Canada’s ending stock reduction is due to their increased export forecast made possible by the decline in Australia’s 2000/01 rapeseed production and exports.
The 2000/01 world protein meal figures were adjusted only slightly this month. Trade projections for 2000/01 in most meals remained unchanged, while consumption increased slightly due a 195,000-ton increase in soybean meal consumption. Soybean meal consumption increases in the U.S. and Eastern Europe were most responsible for the gains. The forecast for world meal ending stocks were reduced only slightly.
Both global vegetable oil production and trade for 2000/01 were revised downward. Forecast production fell 174,000 tons to 86.1 million tons, while the export projection was lowered 100,000 tons to 32.5 million tons due to reductions in soybean and sunflowerseed oil trade.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Bahrain: SAVOLA Bahrain Vegetable Oil Plant Closed
Turkey: Sunflowerseed and products update
France: Reduced Oilseed Production in France
China, Peoples Republic of: Oilseeds Trade and Production Update
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