September 2000 Edition
Lower U.S. Production Forecast This Month Results in Lower Ending Stocks and Improved Price Prospects for 2000/01
Price prospects for U.S. soybeans improved this month due to a reduction in the expected yield of this years record crop. Hot dry weather in the Delta and Western Corn Belt resulted in a new production forecast of 78.9 million tons, over 2.4 million tons below last months forecast. The loss of production along with increased U.S. crush prospects are expected to result in a ending stock level of 9.9 million tons for U.S. soybeans, a drop of 2.7 million tons from Augusts forecast. U.S. soybean exports are also projected at slightly lower levels than last month, but should still be record large at 27.2 million tons. Season average prices for 2000/01 should remain at low levels, but are now expected between $4.35 and $5.15 per bushel, much improved from last months range of $3.90 to $4.80 per bushel. Last year saw an average price for soybeans of only $4.65 per bushel, despite lower production and ending stocks, while shipping a record level of exports.
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA