Situation and Outlook
The world oilseed trade forecast was increased approximately 1.2 million tons this month with exports projected to reach 60.6 million tons in 2000/01. This increase is due mainly to an increase in soybean exports, up nearly 1.6 million tons to 45.6 million tons. The U.S. soybean export forecast for the period was increased 1.1 million tons with the remaining increase attributed to South America. Sunflowerseed and rapeseed export forecasts for 2000/01 were down marginally from July figures due to a reduction in EU forecasts.
The world oilseed import forecast for 2000/01 was increased nearly 1.7 million tons this month to 60.6 million tons with much of the increase attributed to a rise in Chinas soybean imports. This increase comes in part due to a reduction in Chinas soybean production forecast to 15.0 million tons, down 800,000 tons from July. The increase in Chinas soybean imports supports the trend of increasing soybean consumption in China as demand for livestock and poultry respond to increasing levels of disposable income. Soybean stocks data for China are shown for the first time, and show stocks building in 1999/2000 as imports are forecast to reach a record 9.0 million tons. Chinas soybean stocks are forecast to decline in 2000/01 as crush is expected to increase 9 percent to a record 16.0 million tons in the coming year.
The world protein meal production forecast for 2000/01 was increased 1.1 million tons in August as an increase in forecast soybean meal production more than offset declines in rapeseed meal production this month. Total forecast 2000/01 soybean meal production was increased 1.3 million tons in August with increases attributed to China and, to a lessor extent, the United States. Only marginal changes were made in the 2000/01 protein meal trade forecast as imports were increased 184,000 tons to 54.8 million tons. A rise in the soybean meal import forecast accounted for all of the increase, more than offsetting lower forecast rapeseed meal trade. Forecast world soybean meal imports for 2000/01 were increased 315,000 tons in August to 39.4 million tons with increased imports by the EU outpacing a 500,000-ton decline in Chinas 2000/01 soybean meal import forecast. The world soybean meal consumption forecast for 2000/01 was increased 1.6 million tons to 112.1 million tons this month with the increase equally attributed to China and the EU.
The 2000/01 world vegetable oil production forecast was increased 133,000 tons this month to 86.3 million tons. An increase in soybean oil production and reduced rapeseed and peanut oil production forecasts account for most of the August adjustments. Reduced soybean oil exports and lower palm oil imports accounted for most of the changes in world vegetable oil trade this month. The 2000/01 world vegetable oil consumption forecast was increased 211,000 tons this month mostly due to an increase in Chinas 2000/01 soybean oil consumption forecast to 3.5 million tons. Vegetable oil ending stocks are forecast at 7.7 million tons, up 127,000 tons from the July estimate due primarily to increased supplies of soybean oil.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Russian Federation: August Oilseed Harvest Update
India: Oilseeds Update
European Union: The EU oilseeds market in 2000
Germany: German Rapeseed Harvest in 2000