August 2000 Edition
Continued Strong Import Demand Drives U.S. Exports to a New Record in 2000/01
U.S. soybean exports are forecast to rise 3.8 percent in 2000/01 to a record 27.5 million tons or 1.0 billion bushels. This increase is attributed to continued strong import demand by China, large U.S. soybean availabilities and reduced South American soybean supplies. Ending stocks in Brazil and Argentina are projected to fall 25 percent in September 2000 which would provide the U.S. with a window of opportunity to gain market share during the October to January period. Although the world soybean import forecast is reduced from last years level, indications are that China will continue to experience strong import demand thereby advancing global consumption growth. Chinas soybean import forecast is raised this month in response to an 800,000-ton reduction in the soybean crop forecast to 15.0 million tons. China remains the single largest importer of soybeans in 2000/01 with import forecast at 7.3 million tons, 1.7 million tons below the record 9.0 million tons expected in 1999/2000. These dramatic import levels are supported by a shift from protein meal and vegetable oil imports to soybeans in response to improved crushing margins in China.
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA