Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed trade is projected to fall to 59.4 million tons in marketing year 2000/01 from record levels in 1999/00. The decline is led by the soybean sector as the European Union and China soybean imports are expected to fall. Demand for soybeans in the EU is likely to be displaced by grain due to lower prices while expected increases in Chinas soybean production will slow soybean imports. U.S. soybean exports are projected to increase slightly as demand for soybean imports in many Asian markets is expected to grow. U.S. soybean supplies are forecast to reach 87.9 million tons as soybean production is up 8.1 million tons. South American exports are likely to fall as soybean supplies may be less than previously expected due to sharply reduced carryin stocks and smaller world imports. For 1999/00, soybean export estimates for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina increased over the previous month primarily due to higher projected imports for China.
World rapeseed and sunflowerseed trade is expected to decrease in 2000/01 as production in key exporting countries is projected to fall below 1999/00 levels. Rapeseed exports are expected to fall 1.1 million tons to just above 9.9 million tons as the EU, Canada, and Australia exports are likely to fall. Sunflowerseed exports are also expected to fall 965,000 tons to 2.6 million tons as exports from Russia, Argentina, and Eastern Europe are expected to decrease. Lower availabilities of these high-oil-content seeds will tighten world oilseed supplies and encourage greater consumer dependance on soybeans. Cottonseed production is expected to increase for the out-year as gains in the U.S. crop more than offset projected lower production in Pakistan and India. However, world cottonseed trade is expected to remain steady in 2000/01 as these production gains are not likely to enter the export market.
The projected increase in world protein meal trade to 55.1 million tons for 2000/01 is due primarily to increased import demand for soybean meal in China, Korea, and Latin America. Soybean meal exports from the U.S., Brazil, and India are forecast to increase as world soybean meal consumption is expected to reach record levels in 2000/01 led by Asia. Gains in the world soybean meal sector will more than offset lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed meal exports and consumption.
World vegetable oil consumption is also expected to reach a record level of 85.7 million tons in 2000/01, although the 3-percent increase represents a slower rate of growth than in recent years. Vegetable oil consumption in China, India, and Pakistan is likely to increase above 1999/00 levels spurring import demand for soybean oil and palm oil. Soybean oil exports from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina will benefit from the slower rate of palm oil production as well as limited availabilities of rapeseed and sunflowerseed oil on the world market.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at
Belgium-Luxembourg: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Netherlands: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Italy: Oilseeds and Products Annual
South Africa: Oilseeds and Products Annual
El Salvador: Oilseed and Products Annual
Indonesia: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Paraguay: Oilseeds and Products Annual
France: Oilseeds and Products Annual