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Situation and Outlook
Projected world soybean imports increased for 1999/2000 as China is forecast to import 7.2 million tons, 1.3 million over the previous month's forecast. China's growing appetite for soybeans is partly due to the strong demand for feed in the hog and poultry sector. Some traders speculate that China may be entering into import contracts now due to concerns that soybean prices will increase in anticipation of dry U.S. crop conditions in the coming months. With stronger import demand, the U.S. soybean export estimate for 1999/00 was raised about 400,000 tons while Argentina’s export estimate was increased by 1.0 million tons.
Projected world soybean crush for 1999/2000 increased this month on expectations that China and Brazil will crush more soybeans, offsetting lower soybean crush estimates for Argentina and the United States. Estimated world ending stocks are down reflecting decreases for Brazil and Argentina.
World soybean meal imports for 1999/2000 are essentially unchanged this month as a 300,000-ton increase in China's import estimate was offset by lower imports for the European Union and other countries. China’s projected soybean meal imports were raised due to recent trade activity prompted by increasing domestic meal prices and anticipation of a possible waiver of the value-added-tax on oilmeals. Expected soybean meal exports for the United States and Brazil are also higher for the same period.
World soybean oil consumption is estimated 275,000 tons higher this month with increases for China and the European Union. Global soybean oil exports are basically unchanged as a lower export estimate for Argentina was offset by increases for other countries.
Global rapeseed exports for 1999/2000 are projected 6 percent higher this month as Poland and Czech Republic exports to the European Union are expected to increase. These larger supplies are reflected in increased crush estimates for Germany and Denmark raising world rapeseed crush for 1999/00.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attaché Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/
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