Situation and Outlook
United States: Oilseed production for 2000/2001 is projected to increase 9.6 million tons, or nearly 12 percent, to a record 91.6 million tons. Soybean production will account for most of the gain, rising 12 percent to a record 80.4 million tons. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to increase about 1.0 million tons, led by gains in cottonseed and canola.
Small declines are projected for sunflowerseed and peanuts. Soybean production is based on record intended plantings and a trend yield of 40 bushels per acre. Soybean exports are forecast to increase to 26.4 million tons in 2000/2001 while ending stocks are projected to reach 13.5 million, up 63 percent from the previous season.
South America: With the soybean harvest almost complete in Brazil production is raised this month by 500,000 tons to 31.0 million tons. The increase is due to better yields than previously thought in the areas of Mato Grosso, Goias and Parana. Soybean exports are also increased this month to 9.3 million tons, a new record for Brazil, mostly due to increased imports by China. Argentinas soybean export estimate is increased this month by 100,000 tons to 4.1 million tons also a new record reflecting strong demand and low prices.
China: The 1999/2000 marketing season is expected to set a new record for soybean and rapeseed imports. Imports of soybeans are expected to reach 5.9 million tons, up 600,000 from last month, while rapeseed imports should reach 3.4 million tons, unchanged from last month. These increases have been supported by the continuation of the economic growth, low soybean prices and a shift in the import mix among oilseeds and products.
For 1999/2000 imports of oilmeals have been reduced by more than 70 percent to just 430,000 tons from 1.5 million tons last year. Similarly imports of all vegetable oils have been reduced by more than 9 percent to 2.2 million tons from 2.4 million last year. Imports of all oilseeds on the other hand have increased by 55 percent to 9.3 million tons from 6.0 million tons last year. It is expected that the current strong demand for oilseeds will trigger a supply response from local farmers resulting in a higher area planted to oilseeds this year.
India: The 1999/2000 rapeseed production estimate is reduced this month by 400,000 tons to 5.3 million tons due to drought reduced yields. The monthly pace of vegetable oil imports continues to be very strong and will secure Indias position as the largest importer of edible oils this year. The 1999/2000 estimate of palm oil imports is raised this month by 400,000 tons to 3.05 million tons based on the strong import pace year-to-date. If this estimate is achieved it will represent a new record for India. Total edible oil consumption for 1999/2000 is estimated at 9.8 million tons, up more than 5 percent from last year.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at
Japan: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Egypt: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Bangladesh: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Korea, Republic of: Non-GMO Soybean Tender Invitation
Bosnia-Hercegovina: Oilseeds Situation and Outlook
Mexico: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Turkey: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Portugal: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Equador: Oilseeds and Products Annual