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Situation and Outlook
World oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 297.6 million tons, an increase of 1.86 million tons from last month. Increases in soybean, and peanut production estimates were partially offset by reductions in sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Argentina’s soybean production estimate was raised 1.0 million tons as expanded area combines with a 3 percent rise in yields due to favorable production and harvest conditions to produce the largest crop in history. China’s soybean production estimate was also increased while North Korea’s production was cut 110,000 tons to 340,000 tons. The global peanut production estimate was raised again this month due to a one-million-ton increase in Nigeria. Other production revisions include reduced rapeseed production in Poland and a lower sunflowerseed production forecast for Romania.
The global oilseed trade forecast for 1999/2000 is increased by 646,000 tons this month mostly due to increases in soybean and rapeseed exports. The increase in soybean exports reflect the continued strong pace of U.S. exports and the larger soybean production forecast for Argentina. The increase in rapeseed exports are mostly from the EU. The increase in soybean and rapeseed imports is a result of stronger demand in China with imports forecast 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons higher, respectively.
World oilseed ending stocks for 1999/2000 are decreased this month to 25.6 million tons due to a reduction in the EU rapeseed forecast due to an increase in rapeseed exports. A 136,000 ton drop in forecast U.S. cottonseed stocks is a result of increased export and feed usage forecasts. The soybean ending stocks forecast reflects very little change in total this month due to an increase in Argentina’s ending stocks forecast that more than offset the 540,000 tons reduction in the U.S. estimate.
The global oilseed meal consumption forecast for 1999/2000 is raised 452,000 tons as increased soybean meal consumption, up 682,000 tons, offset the reduced sunflowerseed and cottonseed meal consumption forecasts. The increase in soybean meal consumption is a result of a larger forecast for China. The sunflowerseed meal consumption forecast for Romania is reduced 139,000 tons. In addition, a lower cottonseed meal consumption forecast for Pakistan, Turkey and the U.S. is due to reduced crush.
World vegetable and marine oil production and consumption forecasts increased 503,000 tons this month with larger availabilities of palm oil in Malaysia, soybean oil in South America and peanut oil in Nigeria and lower prices supporting greater use. World trade is estimated at 32.1 million tons, up 219,000 tons from last month’s estimate with projected palm oil exports up 7.6 percent from last year. The global soybean oil export forecast reflects minor increases in South American export forecasts that more than offset a 3 percent reduction in the U.S. export forecast. Ending stocks of vegetable and marine oils in 1999/2000 are forecast at 7.9 million tons, down 6 percent from last month.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at
Czech Republic: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Venezuela: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Chile: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Poland: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Turkey: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Venezuela: Import Licensing Requirements for the Oilseed Complex
Dominican Republic: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Pakistan: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Tunisia: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Austria: Oilseeds and Products Annual
South Korea: Soybean Meal Market Situation
Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Annual
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