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Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 295.8 million tons, an increase of 285,000 tons from last month. Increases in soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production estimates were partially offset by reductions in copra and sunflowerseed. Argentina accounted for much of upward change in soybean production, increasing 500,000 tons following a similar increase in February, and is now estimated at 20.0 million tons. While a decrease of 300,000 tons in India’s soybean production to 5.2 million tons restrained the overall increase in soybeans. Rapeseed estimates were revised upwards again this month due to increased Australian (200,000 tons) production. Copra production is projected lower as trees in the Philippines have not fully recovered the from the El Nino drought conditions.
Global oilseed crush for 1999/2000 is down from last month to 246.1 million tons. Small increases in most oilseeds could not make up for the reduction in the copra crush which is down 370,000 tons this month following production declines.
The world oilseed trade forecast for 1999/2000 increased 1.25 million tons this month. The increase is due to large increases in both soybean (820,000 tons) and rapeseed (671,000 tons) exports. For soybeans, the strong pace of U.S. exports is reflected in an increase of 544,000 tons and Argentina’s increased production forecast leads to its 250,000-ton increase. The U.S. is now forecast to export 24.8 million tons of soybeans, a 13.5 percent increase from last year and its second highest export total ever. The increase in rapeseed exports are mostly from Canada (300,000 tons) and Australia (200,000 tons).
Asia’s increased demand for oilseeds, particularly in China, has allowed the region to absorb much of the increase in world trade. China’s import forecast for soybeans this month is raised 200,000 tons and rapeseed 300,000 tons (see front cover). Along with China, Taiwan’s soybean forecast has been raised 100,000 tons to 2.3 million, while Japan’s rapeseed imports have also been raised 100,000 tons to 2.3 million.
The global oilseed ending stocks estimate for 1999/2000 is decreased this month to 25.8 million tons, down 187,000 tons. A decrease in soybean stocks overshadowed smaller increases in rapeseed, and sunflowerseed stocks. The increase in exports cut the U.S. soybean stocks estimate 544,000 tons, which more than offset the 250,000-ton increase in Argentina’s soybean stocks.
The world oilmeal consumption forecast increased slightly this month to 167.7 million tons, up 251,000 tons due to an increase in soybean meal consumption. Global projected meal trade is down in large part to a decrease in soybean meal. India soymeal exports are now forecast at 2.1 million down 225,000 tons from last month, hurt by the lack of imports by China.
The 1999/2000 global situation for vegetable oils this month shows both a slight decrease in production and consumption. Forecast global trade in vegetable oils decreased, with reductions in the trade of sunflowerseed oil, rapeseed oil, and coconut oil. The reduced trade in sunflower oil and rapeseed oil also led to slightly higher stocks of both commodities.
Foreign Developments
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at
China: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Guatemala: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Sweden: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Nigeria: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Korea: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Russia: February Oilseeds Harvest Update
Morocco: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Cote d'Ivoire: Oilseeds and Products Annual
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