Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 295.5 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month as reductions in soybean and peanut production are offset by increases in the cottonseed and sunflowerseed crops. USDA continues to project record global production of oilseeds at a level 2.6 million tons higher than 1998/99.
Februarys estimates of soybean production are reduced by 500,000 tons for both Brazil and Paraguay, due to dry conditions, while the Argentine soybean production estimate is increased by 500,000 tons due to beneficial rains. Cottonseed production is raised for Pakistan and Brazil due to improved yields.
The world oilseed trade forecast for 1999/2000 is increased by 660,000 this month mostly due to increases in rapeseed and soybean exports. One dominant factor this month is the shift in world trade from oilmeals to oilseeds particularly for Asian destinations. Global oilseed ending stocks for 1999/2000 are decreased this month to 26.0 million tons, due to smaller U.S. and Brazilian soybean stocks.
The global edible oils market this month is dominated by increased palm oil production in Malaysia. Global vegetable and marine oil production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 85.8 million tons, up almost 5 percent from last year. World consumption is projected 159,000 tons higher this month to 85.1 million tons as increased soybean and palm oil consumption estimates offset reductions in rapeseed oil consumption. World trade is estimated at 32.3 million tons, up more than 350,000 tons from last months estimate with palm oil maintaining the largest share capturing 41 percent of world trade. Ending stocks of vegetable and marine oils in 1999/2000 are expected to reach 8.2 million tons, up 6.5 percent from last year and are continuing to apply downward pressure on world prices.
The 1999/2000 estimate of U.S. soybean exports is raised 680,000 tons this month to 24.2 million tons, up 11 percent from last year. The increase in this months estimate is due to smaller South American crops, reduced Indian soybean meal export activity and the pronounced shift by China to oilseed imports rather than oilmeals.
Chinas soybean imports for 1999/2000 are increased this month by 500,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, while imports of soybean meal have been reduced by the same amount. Year-to-date data indicate a very strong pace of soybean imports by China and an absolute lack of soybean meal imports. The switch to soybeans, which have the lowest import duty of the soybean complex, is very welcomed by the underutilized crushing industry in China. The Chinese economy continues to experience a good growth rate supporting greater consumption of soybeans and products. Total vegetable oil consumption for 1999/2000 is expected to reach 11.2 million tons, up 4 percent from last year. Despite the modest year-to-year increase in total consumption, per capita consumption is still well below the levels consumed in developed countries.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at
Colombia: Reduction in Duties Likely to Increase Demand for U.S. Imports
Colombia: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Paraguay: Soybean Production Update
Malaysia: Oilseeds and Products Update
Italy: Oilseeds and Products Update
Ukraine: Oilseeds and Products Annual
India: GOI Tariff "Rationalization" Scheme for Edible Oils Creates Confusion