Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 295.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from the December estimate, but still record large at 2.9 million tons higher than last year. The largest declines are noted for soybean, cottonseed, and rapeseed production, while sunflowerseed production is also lower. U.S. soybean and sunflowerseed production estimates were reduced this month, partly offsetting increases in Argentine soybean and FSU sunflowerseed production. U.S. soybean production is reduced 819,000 tons to 71.9 million tons while U.S. sunflowerseed production is reduced 319,000 tons to 2.0 million tons. Both changes are in response to reduced area and yield estimates. Argentinas soybean production forecast was increased 500,000 tons this month as recent rains have helped stabilize yield prospects and encouraged growers to reach planting intentions. Other production changes include reduced cottonseed production in China and a lower rapeseed production forecast for India. Indias rapeseed production estimate for 1998/99 was also reduced this month, down 900,000 tons to 4.9 million tons.
Global oilseed crush for 1999/2000 is down 1.2 million tons from last month to 245.0 million tons in response to the lower production estimates. Reduced rapeseed and cottonseed crush account for most of the decline. A lower soybean crush in the U.S. due to reduced soybean meal export prospects offset by a higher crush in Argentina resulted in only a small decline in total forecast soybean crush.
The world oilseed trade forecast for 1999/2000 is nearly unchanged this month as increased soybean exports, up 200,000 tons, offset a lower sunflowerseed export forecast. The increase in soybean exports is a result of the larger soybean production forecast for Argentina. Sunflowerseed exports for the U.S. and the Ukraine are reduced 113,000 and 100,000 tons, respectively.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 1999/2000 are decreased this month to 26.8 million tons, down 834,000 tons due to smaller U.S. soybean stocks. The U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast is reduced 816,000 tons to 9.9 million tons.
The world oilseed meal consumption forecast declined this month to 167.4 million tons, with cottonseed and rapeseed meal accounting for much of the decline. Forecast soybean meal consumption was up 146,000 tons based almost entirely on the increase in U.S. domestic consumption.
The world vegetable and marine oil production forecast shows little change this month as increased palm oil production in Malaysia and increased sunflowerseed oil production in the Ukraine are offset by reductions in rapeseed and cottonseed oil production. Global oil consumption was up 165,000 tons this month to 84.9 million tons as soybean, olive and sunflowerseed oil consumption estimates offset reductions in rapeseed and cottonseed oil consumption. In world trade, exports of palm oil and olive oil are cut, raising forecast ending stocks for both commodities. This results in a 357,000-ton decline in world vegetable and marine oil exports to 32.0 million tons and a 337,000-ton increase in world ending stocks to 8.3 million tons.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at /scriptsw/attacherep/default.htm
India: GOI Revises Tariff on Edible Oils - Jan. 5, 2000
Argentina: January 2000 Oilseeds and Products Update - Jan. 4, 2000
India: Government Raises Duty on Refined Edible Oils - Jan. 3, 2000
Italy: Oilseeds and Products Update 1999 - Dec. 30, 1999
Malysia: Oilseeds and Products Update (December) - Dec. 30, 1999
Taiwan: Oilseeds and Products Annual - Dec. 29, 1999
Korea, Republic of: Soybean PS&D Update - Dec. 17, 1999
Japan: January - October Soybean Imports Show Modest Growth - Dec. 16, 1999