Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 296.8 million tons, a decrease of 327,000 tons from last month, but still record large at 3.2 million tons higher than last year. Decreases in soybean, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed production were partially offset by an increase in rapeseed production. The E.U. accounted for the decline in soybean production, falling 210,000 tons, while the major soybean producers estimates remain unchanged. Cottonseed production declines were led by Brazil (80,000) and sunflowerseed by South Africa (100,000). Rapeseed estimates were revised upwards again this month due to increased Canadian production.
Global oilseed crush for 1999/2000 is down slightly from last month to 246.2 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 with cottonseed and sunflowerseed leading the decline. A lower soybean crush in Korea and the E.U. offset by a Brazilian crush that was revised upwards left total soybean crush unchanged.
The world oilseed trade forecast for 1999/2000 increased 240,000 tons this month. The entire increase came from rapeseed exports, as the other oilseeds remained the same or declined slightly. Increased rapeseed exports from Australia and the E.U. reflects continued imports of large quantities of rapeseed by China. China is now projected to import 2.8 million tons, an increase of 400,000 from last months estimate and 650,000 above 1998/99 imports.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 1999/2000 are decreased this month to 27.6 million tons, down 200,000 tons due to smaller Brazilian soybean stocks. This months increased rapeseed production estimate caused rapeseed stocks to be revised upwards offsetting some of the decrease in soybean stocks. The 1998/99 ending stock estimate also declined this month again the result of lower Brazilian soybean stocks.
The world oilmeal consumption forecast increased this month to 168.1 million tons, with soymeal and rapeseed meal each increasing about 140,000 tons. Soymeal consumption was increased in Egypt to reflect strong demand, while China accounted for most of the change in rapemeal consumption. Projected global meal trade also increased mainly due to increases in soybean meal imports by Egypt.
The 1999/2000 global situation for vegetable oils this month shows little change in production and a slight decrease in consumption. Forecast global trade in vegetable oils increased due to greater soyoil exports from Brazil and olive oil exports from the E.U. World ending stocks of vegetable oils in 1999/2000 were revised upwards 442,000 tons. Palm oil stocks are projected higher in both India (150,000) and Indonesia (100,000). The high level of 1998/99 oil imports by India are expected to boost supplies this year and result in larger 1999/2000 ending stocks. Olive oil stocks in the E.U. increased primarily in Spain and Greece.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.htm