Situation and Outlook
Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at a record 297.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month, despite the 0.6 million ton reduction in the soybean crop in the United States. Foreign production at 214 million tons is up 3.2 million from a month ago to a new high. Gains are mostly in soybeans, up 0.7 million tons because of increased South American planting and production prospects. Rapeseed crops are increased in Canada to 8.6 million tons and in the E.U. to 11.3 million tons, both record highs.
Global oilseed crush is up from last month by more than 1.0 million tons to 246.3 million tons due to increased crush of rapeseed (China, Germany), sunflowerseed (Romania, Ukraine) and cottonseed (India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan). Soybean crush for 1999/2000 is reduced this month in the United States by 544,000 tons and in Germany by 110,000 tons.
World oilseed trade for 1999/2000 is up this month by 510,000 tons mainly due to the increase in exportable supplies of soybeans and rapeseed in South America and Canada. The increased foreign supplies have a negative impact on prospects for 1999/2000 soybean exports from the United States which are reduced by 410,000 tons this month to 23.5 million tons.
Global oilseed ending stocks are increased this month by 710,000 tons to 27.8 million tons, a new high as world soybean supplies outgrow demand. The ending stocks forecasts for other oilseeds are basically unchanged.
World production and consumption of oilmeals are increased this month to 168.2 and 167.9 million tons, respectively along with increased oilseed production and crush. Global trade is reduced this month mainly due to reductions in soybean meal trade forecasted for China (180,000 tons) and in the Middle East region (175,000 tons). The 1999/2000 global situation for vegetable oils this month mirrors that of oilseeds with increases in production and use, a small decline in trade and ending stocks remaining unchanged.
Recent policy changes in China, a VAT on soymeal and lack of import licences for vegetable oils, have favored importation of oilseeds. All imports of vegetable oils are expected to be down for 1999/2000 due to government willingness to support the domestic crushing industry. Demand for vegetable oils is high relative to meal resulting in an increased demand for rapeseed (higher oil content than soybeans). This month, imports of rapeseed are revised up by 300,000 to 2.4 million tons while soybean meal imports are revised down by 180,000 tons to 1.1 million tons.
The complete (preliminary) data for imports of edible oils for the 1998/99 marketing year indicate that India reached a new record of imports at 4.1 million tons, up 116 percent from the previous year. Imports of sunflowerseed oil increased by 340 percent, soybean oil increased by 250 percent while imports of palm oil increased by 73 percent. The lower prices for all vegetable oils experienced in 1998/99 is one of the main reasons behind this level of imports. Despite the lower forecasted 1999/2000 soybean and peanut crops, this level of imports is not expected to be repeated in 1999/2000 as substantial amounts of the 1998/99 imports occurred at the end of the marketing year.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below. All reports are in Adobe Acrobat format (pdf) unless otherwise noted. These reports, along with others, may also be obtained in both Adobe Acrobat (pdf) and WordPerfect format (wpd) by going directly to the Attache Report section of the FAS homepage at http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.htm
Russia: November 1999 Sunflowerseed Harvest Update - Nov. 10, 1999
Nigeria: Soybean Situation - Nov. 3, 1999
India: Oilseeds and Products Update - Nov. 2, 1999
Malaysia: Oilseeds and Products Update - Nov. 2, 1999
Bulgaria: Oilseeds Update - Nov. 2, 1999
Romania: Oilseeds Update - Nov. 2, 1999
Pakistan: Oilseeds Update - Oct. 28, 1999
Turkey: Changes in Vegetable Oil Regulations - Oct 18, 1999