Situation and Outlook
World oilseed crush for 1999/2000 is forecast to increase by over 675,000 tons to 245.3 million tons this month despite a 1-million ton fall in world production to 295.5 million tons. Increased crush of sunflowerseed and rapeseed is supported by larger production estimates this month. The Asian soybean market is strengthening as crush estimates for China, Korea, and Taiwan increased. A 900,000-ton increase in China's crush estimate to 11.5 million tons is due to a larger crop than initially expected. Despite larger domestic supplies, China's imports are expected to remain strong as this year's crop is expected to be smaller than 1998/99 production. Indonesia is expected to increase soybean imports above last year as consumers continue to utilize less expensive protein found in soybean products as an alternative to poultry.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast lower due to a smaller crop estimate and higher prices than previously expected. A large decrease in the U.S. soybean production estimate was partially countered by production gains in China and Argentina. U.S. soybean production is reduced to 73.4 million tons from last month's estimate of 75.6 million tons. Expected yields are down from 2.55 tons per hectare to 2.49 tons per hectare, and harvested area is lower as abandonment increased primarily in the southern regions.
World sunflowerseed crush for 1999/2000 is forecast at 24.1 million tons, about 500,000 tons above the previous month's forecast. Ukraine's crush is likely to increase due to a recently imposed 23 percent tax on sunflowerseed exports. Spain's sunflowerseed crush is up as imports are expected to make up for a poor sunflowerseed crop. Due to larger crops in Hungary and China, world rapeseed crush is up 560,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, while production is 5.3 million tons above 1998/99 production of 36.7 million tons. World peanut crush is reduced to 13.5 million tons, 845,000 tons below last month's estimate as dry weather forced a 13-percent reduction in India's production estimate to 6.0 million tons.
World soybean meal imports are down slightly this month as China's imports are expected to fall to 1.3 million tons, 350,000 tons below last month's estimate and 150,000 tons below last year's level. Indonesia's imports are 380,000 tons above last month's estimate as the government continues to implement programs to promote poultry production. This will raise Indonesia's soybean meal import estimate to about 1 million tons for 1999/2000, 100,000 tons above the previous year.
This month's forecast for world vegetable and marine oil consumption for 1999/2000 is down slightly to 84.2 million tons. Increased consumption of soybean and rapeseed oil partly offset lower peanut and palm oil consumption forecasts. The world soybean oil production estimate increased to over 24 million tons partly due to an estimated 8-percent increase in China's soybean oil production to 1.9 million tons. This will lower China's expected imports by 100,000 tons to 1.1 million tons for the same period. India's expected peanut oil consumption fell due to lower domestic production this year while expected palm oil consumption is also lower for India and China.
For additional information pertaining to the summary above and other noteworthy developments within the oilseeds complex see the reports below.
Indonesia: Soybean and Products Update - Oct 5, 1999 (pdf format)
Germany: Rapeseed Production - Oct 4, 1999 (pdf format)*
Hungary: Rapeseed, Soybeans, and Sunflower Update - Oct 4, 1999 (pdf format)
India: Oilseeds Update - Oct 1, 1999 (pdf format)
Argentina: Oilseeds Update - Sep 30, 1999 (pdf format)
Bolivia: Oilseeds and Grain Products - Sep 28, 1999 (pdf format)
European Union: Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Sep 23, 1999 (pdf format)
Dominican Republic: Oilseeds and Products Annual Report - Sep 22, 1999 (pdf format)
Venezuela: Tariff Schedule for Soybean Complex - Sep 13, 1999 (pdf format)
*The report on German rapeseed production may not be available. If a connection can not be established please try again later.
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