U.S. Soybean Ending
Stocks Set to Rise in 1998/99
Record soybean production in 1998 coupled with a decline in exports is expected to result in a dramatic increase in soybean stocks in 1998/99. Soybean production is forecast to reach 79.2 million tons based on increased area and near record yields. Soybean exports, though approaching this year's record level, are expected to be down 400,000 tons to 23.4 million tons. Declines in exports to Asia and continued strong South American competition are expected to remain a drag on export growth into the new year resulting in the reduced export forecast for 1998/99. As a result, soybean stocks are forecast to rise 140 percent to 13.2 million tons. This would be the highest level since 1985/86 when soybean stocks reached 14.6 million tons. Due to the increased level of consumption, stocks as measured in days of use are expected to rise to 67 days. This compares to 104 days of use in 1985/86 and 78 days in 1986/87.