|
|
|
|
|
|
SUMMARY
U.S. oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at a record 85.8 million tons, but is down 400,000 tons from last month due to a lower cottonseed production forecast. Cottonseed output, at 5.4 million tons, would be the lowest since 1990/91. Forecast U.S. soybean production for 1998 was unchanged at 76.2 million tons. However, the 1998/99 soybean export forecast was reduced 816,000 tons from the previous month's forecast, more than offsetting increases in soybean crush and soybean meal exports. Expanded U.S. crushing capacity and improved crushing efficiencies are contributing to more soybean product exports at the expense of soybean exports.
The 1997/98 U.S. soybean export forecast was reduced 544,000 tons this month to 24.4 million tons, down 2 percent from last month's estimate. This change reduces the year-to-year export gain to only 1 percent and reflects continued slow U.S. soybean exports due to increased competition with the South American crop. Lower soybean meal prices in recent months have resulted in a strong export pace for U.S. soybean meal, reflected in this month's 319,000 ton increase in the 1997/98 U.S. soybean meal export forecast to 8.0 million tons. This brings the U.S. soybean meal export forecast up 26 percent from a year earlier. U.S. soybean crush for 1997/98 was increased 544,000 tons to 42.7 million tons in response to the increased export demand for meal and reduced soybean export volume. The U.S. soybean oil export forecast for 1997/98 remains unchanged this month at a record 1.3 million tons.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 1998/99 is unchanged this month at $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel while the soybean meal price is cut to $138 to $152 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected to range between 26 and 28 cents per pound, down 1 cent per pound from the May forecast.
Global oilseed production for 1997/98 was revised higher this month to 286.0 million tons in response to increased soybean production estimates for Argentina and China, a higher rapeseed production estimate for China, and an increased sunflowerseed production estimate for Spain. Argentina's soybean crop estimate for 1997/98 was increased 1.0 million tons to 17 million tons reflecting higher yields. Global soybean production for 1997/98 is forecast at 154.7 million tons. The 1997/98 world oilseed export forecast was increased 885,000 tons in June to 51.6 million tons in response to increases in EU intra-trade for rapeseed and sunflowerseed.
Soybeans
The world soybean production forecast for 1997/98 was raised to 154.7 million tons, up slightly from last month's estimate. Argentina's 1997/98 soybean crop estimate was increased 1.0 million tons this month reflecting higher yields. Favorable growing and harvest weather contributed to a 38-percent increase in yields compared to 1996/97. China's 1997 soybean production estimate was increased 900,000 tons based on officially revised Chinese statistics. In the EU, the 1997 soybean production was increased 140,000 tons supported by higher area and yields.
The world soybean export forecast for 1997/98 was raised slightly this month in response to a larger export forecast for Brazil and Argentina which offset a 544,000-ton reduction in the United States. This reduction reflects the continued slow pace of U.S. soybean export activities due to record crops in South America. A larger export forecast for South America retains the world export forecast at a record 39.0 million tons. The world soybean import forecast for 1997/98 was reduced slightly this month to 39.0 million tons reflecting a 2 percent reduction in the EU soybean import forecast. The world soybean ending stocks forecast for September 1998 was raised due in part to larger expected stocks in Argentina resulting from a larger supply forecast.
Global soybean meal exports in 1997/98 were forecast at 36.3 million tons, up 377,000 tons this month and supported by increased U.S., Argentina and the EU export forecasts. The soybean meal export forecast was raised this month reflecting strong soybean meal export activities. However, India's soybean meal exports were reduced based on higher domestic demand.
The world 1997/98 soybean meal import forecast was raised from last month's level to 36.1 million tons. Import demand in the EU, the Philippines and Japan more than offset a 200,000-ton reduction made to China's soybean meal import forecast. China's soybean meal import projection was lowered from last month in response to an increase in domestic soybean meal production. The world soybean oil export forecast for 1997/98 was increased 3 percent this month reflecting strong world vegetable oil demand and resulting increase in EU export volume. Strong soybean oil sales by Argentina and Brazil in recent months has cut into U.S. soybean oil exports resulting in a 3-percent reduction in the U.S. export forecast to 1.3 million tons. The world soybean oil import forecast was increased this month to 6.7 million tons, helped by a 200,000-ton increase in China's soybean oil import forecast.
Soybean Highlights
China's 1997/98 soybean production estimate was revised upwards 1.0 million tons to 14.7 million tons based on official government statistics. It appears that last summer's drought caused less damage than originally expected. As a result, the soybean crush in China was increased 700,000 tons. The import forecast for soybean meal was reduced 200,000 tons to 4.3 million tons based on the level of trade to date. Large soybean meal arrivals this spring are expected to slow import demand through the summer months. China's soybean oil import forecast was increased 200,000 tons to 2 million tons this month based on continued strong growth for vegetable oil demand.
India's soybean meal export forecast for 1997/98 was reduced 300,000 tons this month to 2.5 million tons as large quantities of rejected meal remain at ports and in importing countries. In recent years India has attempted to improved the quality of the exported meal in order to capture the protein premiums offered in the world market. However, 1997/98 represents a set back for India's soybean meal exports due to discoloration and low protein levels.
Other Oilseeds
World oilseed production for 1997/98, excluding soybeans, was increased 540,000 tons in June to 131.3 million tons. Higher world rapeseed and sunflowerseed production forecasts accounted for most of the increase, in addition to somewhat larger world cottonseed and peanut production forecasts. Rapeseed production for 1997/98 is estimated at 33.4 million tons, up 193,000 tons in response to higher production estimates for China and the EU. The sunflowerseed production estimate was increased 237,000 tons to 2.9 million tons in June based primarily on increases for the EU. Smaller increases were also noted for South Africa and Russia. Combined, these increases offset lower production estimates for both India and Hungary.
World cottonseed production, at 33.8 million tons, was increased 52,000 tons as higher production estimates for China and Africa offset reductions in Argentina and Uzbekistan. World peanut production for 1997/98 is estimated at 28.6 million tons, an increase of 47,000 tons compared to last month due to small increases in China and South Africa.
The world oilseed export forecast for 1997/98, excluding soybeans, was increased 885,000 tons to 12.6 million tons primarily due to increases in intra-EU trade. Correspondingly, world other oilseed imports were increased 749,000 tons to 12.5 million tons this month. Other oilseed crush, which excludes soybean crush, was reduced 441,000 tons this month to 103.4 million tons. The decline was due to lower sunflowerseed and cottonseed crush and corresponding increase in feed, seed, and waste usage. For rapeseed, forecast crush for 1997/98 was increased with additional supplies coming from reduced stocks and whole-seed feeding. The world oilseed ending stocks forecast for 1997/98, excluding soybeans, was reduced 452,000 tons this month in response to lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed stock forecasts.
World protein meal production, excluding soybean meal, was reduced 77,000 tons in June to 56.9 million tons. This decline occurred in response to reduced cottonseed and sunflowerseed crush. Cottonseed meal production forecasts were reduced in Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Argentina while sunflowerseed meal production forecasts were reduced in Russia. On the positive side, rapeseed meal production was increased in the EU and Thailand's fishmeal production forecast was increased 90,000 tons to 420,000 tons. Forecast trade in other oilseeds was also reduced this month, with exports falling 193,000 tons to 15.2 million tons. A reduction in expected supplies of cottonseed meal and reduced rapeseed meal exports by India in response to expected lower crush account for much of the decline.
Consumption of other oilseed meals, at 57.1 million tons, was down 28,000 tons for the month and is 1 percent below the level of 1996/97. The world ending stocks forecast for protein meals, excluding soybean meal, was reduced 46,000 tons this month to 1.8 million tons primarily due to a drop in expected rapeseed meal supplies.
World vegetable and marine oil production, excluding soybean oil, was increased 31,000 tons this month to 54.7 million tons in response to increased rapeseed oil production. Higher forecast rapeseed oil production in Canada, China, and the EU account for the increase. Nearly offsetting this increase is reduced palm, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed oil production forecasts. Total world exports, excluding soybean oil, were up 128,000 tons to 22.0 million tons in response to increased EU intra-trade of sunflowerseed oil. The world vegetable and marine oil consumption forecast, excluding soybean oil, was nearly unchanged this month at 55.2 million tons. The ending stocks forecast, excluding soybean oil, was reduced 53,000 tons this month due to lower forecast sunflowerseed and fish oil stocks.
Other Oilseed Highlights
China's cottonseed production for 1997 was increased 560,000 tons to 8.3 million tons based on revised Chinese State Statistical Bureau (SSB) data. This level of production, while 720,000 tons over the previous year, is still short of the 8.58 million ton crop of 1995.
China's 1997 rapeseed production forecast was increased 170,000 tons to 9.5 million tons based on the SSB revision. China has also emerged recently as an importer of rapeseed. China's imports of rapeseed were also increased 25,000 tons to 300,000 tons resulting in a net increase in the domestic crush to over 200,000 tons. As a result, rapeseed oil production for 1997/98 was increased 72,000 tons to 3.0 million tons.
Hungary's 1997 sunflowerseed production estimate was reduced 155,000 tons to 545,000 tons in response to a decline in harvested area and reduced yields experienced this year. The major impact of this production shortfall was a reduction in crush and decline in export availabilities. Total sunflowerseed exports for 1997/98 are forecast to reach 190,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from last month. Forecast sunflowerseed crush, at 349,000 tons, was reduced 131,000 tons for the month, and represents a 40 percent decline from the 1996/97 level.
The 1997/98 sunflowerseed export forecast for Russia was increased 150,000 tons to 950,000 tons this month. This in turn resulted in a decline in forecast crush for 1997/98 to 1.6 million tons and corresponding decline in sunflowerseed meal and oil production for the year.
|
|