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U.S. Soybean and Product
Exports To Decline
in Fiscal Year 1999
The FY-99 value of U.S. soybean, meal, and oil exports could decline between eight and 22 percent or $0.7 to $2.0 billion, based on the current range of USDA projections. Lower prices will more than offset expanding soybean and meal export volumes. However, soybean oil export value should improve due to higher prices while volume remains unchanged from this year's record. Global vegetable oil stocks should decline in the coming year. The expected reduction in 1998/99 soybean and meal prices assumes a record large U.S. crop following South America's huge increase in output this year. If the current U.S. soybean crop estimate is achieved, U.S. ending stocks could exceed 11 million tons, the largest since 1986/87. U.S. soybean stocks could recover to 57 days of total use, the largest since 65 days in 1990/91 and 78 days in 1986/87.
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