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Brazil's 1998/99 soybean crop is forecast to reach a record 30 million tons as growers respond to last season's high prices by planting a record 12.9 million hectares. El Nino has so far been kind to Brazil's soybean growers as the weather has remained favorable throughout much of the growing season. Combined with improved varieties and cultural practices, yields are forecast to rise 2 percent to 2.3 tons/ha this year. With Brazil's large crop nearing harvest, and good harvests expected for Argentina and elsewhere in South America, soybean and product prices are beginning to react. In the U.S., Central Illinois soybean prices have fallen from $7.12/bu on December 1 to $6.59/bu on January 12. Over the same period, prices for 48 percent soybean meal have declined from $243 short ton to $193 short ton on January 12. While anticipation of large South American supplies has not been the only factor pulling down soybean prices in recent weeks, it certainly has been the most significant factor.
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