JANUARY 1998 OILSEEDS SUMMARY
U.S. oilseed production in 1997/98 is reported at a record
84.6 million tons, down only slightly from last month but up 10
million tons from last year. Small gains for sunflowerseed,
peanut, and cottonseed production are more than offset by a
0.3-million-ton drop in estimated soybean production to 74.2
million tons or 2,727 million bushels.
The most significant change in prospective U.S. domestic use and trade this month is reduced U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports. This reflects a combination of larger Brazilian soybean production and export supplies and some further reduction in Asian soybean meal demand. With a smaller U.S. soybean crop, ending stocks are cut 5 million bushels to 250 million bushels (6.8 million tons). Projected U.S. season-average soybean prices for 1997/98 are cut 10 cents per bushel to $6.10 to $6.90 per bushel, mainly reflecting larger projected global oilseed ending stocks. Soybean meal prices are cut $5 per ton to $195 to $220 per short ton, while soybean oil prices are unchanged at 24 to 27 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production is projected at a record 281 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month and nearly 22 million tons above last year. Most of the increase is in soybeans, with Brazil's projected crop raised 1 million tons to a record 30.0 million tons. China's soybean crop is up 300,000 tons to 13.8 million tons based on reports of better-than-expected yields. Other changes include an upward revision for Argentina's peanut crop.
Global oilseed and product trade mostly reflects changes for
soybeans and soybean meal, mainly for Brazil, Argentina, China,
and other Asian countries. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal
exports are increased by 300,000 and 100,000 tons, respectively,
in response to larger supplies. For Argentina, soybean imports
are increased 400,000 tons to a record 900,000 tons, with most
re-exported as products. China's larger crop is allocated mostly
to food and other uses while soybean crush and meal use are
lowered to reflect reduced crush estimates for prior years.
Soybean meal use and imports in Southeast Asia are projected to decline 3 percent in 1997/98, well below the 4 to 6 percent growth previously expected and the 15-percent annual growth of the prior 3 years. The severity of the impact of the financial crisis on soybean meal use and imports varies. In Thailand, poultry exports are expected to lead to a 1 to 3 percent rise in soybean meal use. Soybean use in Southeast Asia, in contrast, is expected to rise reflecting growing demand for food soybeans.