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Oilseeds: World Markets
and Trade
December 1997
SUMMARY
U.S. oilseed production for 1997/98 is projected at a record 84.7 million tons, essentially unchanged this month and up 10 million tons from last year. A very small drop in cottonseed output is reported this month. U.S. soybean supply and use are unchanged this month.
U.S. season-average prices for soybeans in 1997/98 are forecast at $6.20 to $7.00 per bushel, up about 3 percent from last month but below last year's $7.35 per bushel. Strong early-season prices are instrumental in this month's revision. Soybean meal prices are up a little to $200 to $225 per short ton while soybean oil prices are increased this month to 24.0 to 27.0 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production in 1997/98 is forecast at a record 279.5 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month but nearly 21 million tons above 1996/97. Foreign oilseed production is cut marginally this month to 194.8 million tons as declines in sunflowerseed production prospects in the former Soviet Union more than offset an increase of 350,000 tons in India's soybean crop to 5.35 million tons. Timely rains during the growing season boosted India's soybean yields, although recent heavy rains at the winding down of harvest may have caused some quality problems. The sunflowerseed crop in both Russia and the Ukraine experienced less than ideal growing conditions this year and also suffered damage from excessive rains during harvest.
World oilseed trade and consumption are off this month, due mainly to declines in FSU sunflowerseed crush reduced exports to the EU. Global soybean crush is up slightly because of gains in India, while data revisions for Nigeria's peanut crop result in less reported peanut crush this month. Peanut oil and meal also are revised down in Nigeria, accounting for most of the global adjustments to peanut oil and meal. Soybean meal and oil trade and use are little changed this month. Declines for South Korea soybean and soybean meal imports largely offset by increases for the EU. Other notable changes include an increase in Argentina's soybean imports and crush by 100,000 tons, more than offset by a reduction of 150,000 tons in Brazil's soybean imports and crush. Argentina's soybean imports are forecast at 500,000 tons while Brazil is expected to import 1.6 million tons, about half of U.S. origin.
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