|
|
|
|
|
|
Situation and Outlook
December 1997
Soybeans
The 1997/98 world soybean production forecast was increased
slightly to 149.6 million tons reflecting a 350,000-ton increase
in India's record crop. Forecast world soybean trade reflects
import adjustments in response to strengthened demand in the EU
that offsets reductions in Brazil, Korea and Mexico. World
soybean meal exports for 1997/98 are forecast at 35.7 million
tons, up slightly from last month. India's soybean meal exports
are raised in response to larger supplies and increased foreign
demand for soybean meal. The 1997/98 world soybean meal import
forecast was increased this month reflecting larger estimates for
the EU and Latin America. South Korea's 1997/98 soybean import
forecast was reduced 100,000 tons this month in response to an
expected weakening in demand as a result of their current
economic difficulties. Global soybean oil production was
increased slightly. World oil trade is reduced this month in
response to a decline in Brazil's export estimate and India's
import forecast.
Soybean Highlights
Brazil's 1997/98 soybean import forecast was
reduced 150,000 tons to 1.6 million tons reflecting lagging
soybean import activities. U.S. export sales for the week ending
December 4 indicate a total 611,000 tons of U.S. soybeans have
been shipped to Brazil since September 1. This figure represents
a much lower number than earlier estimated.
Argentina's 1997/98 soybean import forecast
was raised 100,000 tons to 500,000 tons this month. Import
requirements are now projected to rise 67 percent from last
year's level due to continued strong export demand for soybean
products. Traditionally, Argentina imports only small quantities
of soybeans from neighboring countries. However, drought in 1997
reduced the soybean crop 10 percent from expected levels and is
helping to drive this year's growth in soybean imports.
Mexico's soybean imports for 1997/98 are
reduced 100,000 tons in line with a reduction in last year's
import estimate. The 1997/98 estimate is 3.0 million tons, up 12
percent from the revised 1996/97 estimate. The U.S. is the major
supplier of soybeans to Mexico accounting for nearly 99 percent
of Mexico's imports. According to U.S. export sales ending the
week of December 4, accumulated exports of soybeans to Mexico are
running 17 percent ahead of the pace set last year.
The EU's soybean import forecast was
increased 275,000 tons this month to 15.8 million tons. Strong
demand through the early part of the year prompted this month's
change. Since 1995/96, total EU soybean imports are projected to
rise 1.6 million tons or 11 percent. The soybean meal import
forecast was increased a modest 100,000 tons this month to 15.3
million tons, down 521,000 tons since 1995/96, but up 512,000
tons from 1996/97. Total soybean meal consumption in the EU in
1997/98 is forecast to reach 23.4 million tons, an increase of
nearly 800,000 tons for the period.
Ideal weather conditions in India, mainly
well distributed rainfall, has contributed to record yields in
several soybean growing states such as Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. The national average yield for
1997/98 is estimated at 950 Kg/ha resulting in a record soybean
crop of 5.4 million tons. This represents a 30-percent increase
from last year's 4.1 million ton crop. The 1997/98 crush is
expected to reach a record 4.8 million tons, more than 30 percent
above the previous year. Growing world demand for soybean meal is
expected to help push India's soybean meal exports to 3.2 million
tons in 1997/98.
South Korea's soybean import forecast for
1997/98 was reduced 150,000 tons this month to 1.4 million tons
in response to an expected tightening of credit availability and
increased cost of imports following the devaluation of the won.
This compares to the 1996/97 soybean import estimate of 1.5
million tons. The 1997/98 soybean meal import forecast was also
reduced this month, down 100,000 tons to 800,000 tons in response
to the current economic conditions. However, this figure is still
expected to exceed the 1996/97 import level estimated at 745,000
tons.
Other Oilseeds
World oilseed production for 1997/98, excluding soybeans, was
reduced 751,000 tons in December to 129.9 million tons. Nearly
all of this decline was due to a reduction in the FSU
sunflowerseed production estimate. Other changes this month
include a 100,000-ton increase in Canada's projected rapeseed
production figure to 6.2 million tons, an 80,000-ton decline in
Australia's rapeseed production forecast to 770,000 tons, and a
100,000-ton increase in France's rapeseed production estimate to
3.4 million tons. The world cottonseed production forecast was
increased 55,000 tons this month as increased production
estimates for China and Syria among others outpaced declines in
parts of the FSU, Egypt, and Sudan.
Forecast world oilseed exports for 1997/98, excluding
soybeans, was reduced 600,000 tons in December in response to
lower sunflowerseed exports expected by the FSU this year. Total
exports are forecast to reach 11.4 million tons with
sunflowerseed exports projected to decline to 3.1 million tons in
1997/98. Accordingly, forecast sunflowerseed imports by the EU
were reduced as the EU has traditionally been a major export
destination for FSU sunflowerseed.
Other oilseed crush, which excludes soybean crush, was reduced
1.2 million tons this month to 103.3 million tons. In addition to
the lower sunflowerseed crush figure, forecast peanut crush was
reduced in response to reduced crush in Nigeria. Nigeria's peanut
crush was reduced 663,000 tons to 650,000 tons with the reduction
distributed to food use and feed. These figures were subsequently
reduced in the historical database and coincide with last month's
increase in Nigeria's peanut production. Other oilseed ending
stocks, which excludes soybeans, was relatively unchanged in
December at 22.1 million tons.
World protein meal production, excluding soybean meal, was
reduced 490,000 tons in December to 56.9 million tons. Reduced
sunflowerseed and peanut meal production forecast account for
much of the decline this month. Small increases in rapeseed and
fishmeal production forecasts were also noted this month. Peru's
fishmeal production is expected to recover to 1.8 million tons in
1998, up 100,000 tons the 1997 level. Both the 1997 and 1998
fishmeal production estimates reflect the impact of El Nino and
its associated reduction in catch.
The world protein meal export forecast, which excludes soybean
meal, was increased 111,000 tons to 16.1 million tons this month.
Increased fishmeal exports from Peru in response to their higher
production accounted for most of the increase. Forecast
consumption of protein meals, excluding soybean meal was reduced
this month due to reduced peanut and sunflowerseed meal
production noted earlier. Protein meal ending stocks are
projected lower in 1997/98 due to a reduction in Japan's fishmeal
stocks.
World vegetable and marine oil production, excluding soybean
oil, was reduced 661,000 tons this month to 54.3 million tons in
response to lower forecast production of peanut and sunflowerseed
oil. Other changes this month include slightly lower forecasts
for fish oil production, and increases in forecast palm,
rapeseed, and cottonseed oil production. All of these changes
were below 100,000 tons in magnitude. Forecast vegetable and
marine oil exports, excluding soybean oil, was lowered 243,000
tons this month to 21.6 million tons in response to reduced palm,
sunflowerseed, and fish oil export forecasts. Forecast oil
consumption, excluding soybean oil, is also expected lower at
54.2 million tons, down 770,000 tons from the November forecast
due to reduced production of sunflowerseed, peanut, and fish oil
noted earlier. Forecast ending stocks, which excludes soybean
oil, were marginally lower in December with total stocks expected
to be down nearly 6 percent from a year earlier. Decline in
sunflowerseed oil stocks are expected to account for most of the
year-to-year decline.
Other Oilseed Highlights
The 1997/98 sunflowerseed production estimate for the
FSU was reduced 900,000 tons this month on reports of
lower output in Russia and the Ukraine due to bad weather and
difficulties in the harvest. Total 1997 FSU sunflowerseed
production is estimated at 5.2 million tons, nearly unchanged
from the 1996 drought reduced crop. Yield was somewhat improved
in 1997 over last year, but was offset by a reduction in area
planted resulting in the low output. Sunflowerseed yields in the
FSU were 23 percent lower this year compared to the 1991 - 1995
average yield. With lower production, forecast 1997/98
sunflowerseed exports were reduced 555,000 tons to 1.2 million
tons, mainly to the EU. The 1996/97 sunflowerseed export estimate
was increased significantly this month to 2.2 million tons
reflecting an increase in Ukraine's export volume. Forecast
sunflowerseed crush in the FSU for 1997/98 was reduced 360,000
tons to 3.8 million tons this month reflecting the lower
production estimate, but is expected to exceed last year's crush
by 630,000 tons resulting in increased domestic supplies of
sunflowerseed meal and oil compared to 1996/97.
Canada's rapeseed production estimate for
1997 was increased 100,000 tons to 6.2 million tons based on the
latest report issued by Agriculture Canada. This brings the
increase in rapeseed production to 1.1 million tons compared to
1996. Increased plantings in 1997 helped boost this year's
production total. With the large production and increased
crushing capacity brought on line in recent years, total rapeseed
crush in Canada is forecast to reach a record 3.1 million tons,
up nearly 400,000 tons from the previous year. Exports, at a
projected 2.5 million tons in 1997/98, will be down slightly from
the 1996/97 level.
The 1997/98 cottonseed production estimate in China was increased 200,000 tons to 7.3 million tons as reports continue to show improved cotton production. The increase this month comes on the heels of a 200,000-ton increase in November, but still leaves cottonseed production nearly 300,000 tons below last year. In response to the increase this month, the cottonseed crush forecast was raised 200,000 tons to 5.8 million tons with an associated increase in cottonseed meal and oil production.
Nigeria's peanut crush series was adjusted
lower this month as part of an overall adjustment in the
country's peanut supply and distribution series. Current
estimates are for crush to reach 650,000 tons in 1997/98 with
food and feed use forecast to reach 700,000 tons and 400,000
tons, respectively. With the lower crush, production of peanut
meal and oil are forecast lower. These adjustments to Nigeria's
peanut supply and distribution will have little impact on the
world supply situation as nearly all of Nigeria's output is
destined for the domestic market.
Romania's sunflowerseed production forecast for 1997 was reduced 100,000 tons to 900,000 tons. Disease problems with this year's crop coupled with poor harvest weather led to the decline. Little impact on world markets is expected as all of the shortage will fall on the domestic market with reduced crush and lower sunflowerseed meal and oil production. Total production is forecast to decline 280,000 tons from the previous year.
|
|