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October 1997
Soybeans and Products
World soybean production in 1997/98 is forecast at 146.2 million tons, 12 percent above last year's estimate, with all major producers, except China, forecast to harvest crops near or at record levels. In China, area planted to soybeans is projected 10 percent above last year's poor performance despite the continuation of a lower procurement price for soybeans relative to other grains. Many farmers in northeastern China's Heilongjiang Province, where more than a third of the soybeans are grown, shifted land out of soybeans to corn. However, soybean area in other provinces was less affected by the increase in grain prices. U.S. production in 1997 is projected to rise 14 percent above last year's estimate to a record level because of higher planted area and yields. Soybean production in India is forecast to increase 900,000 tons to 5.0 million tons due to continued area expansion spurred by high soybean prices. Bolivia's soybean production is forecast to rise 260,000 tons to 1.3 million tons reflecting continued expansion of area by Brazilian farmers. Some of the incentives that encourage Brazilian farmers to grow soybeans in Bolivia are fertile land, lower input costs and location.
World soybean exports for 1997/98 are forecast to rise 7 percent as larger supplies in the U.S. and South America are expected to increase export availabilities. Projected lower soybean prices, smaller exportable supplies in South America during the September-April period, and the larger U.S. harvest are expected to support U.S. soybean exports nearly 9 percent higher in 1997/98. Growing demand for soybeans in China continues to account for a larger share of its domestic output, and thereby reduce exportable supplies and further raise net imports more than 36 percent. Soybean consumption in China is divided between the crushing industry and the food sector at 58 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
Brazil's 1997/98 soybean exports are projected to decline 8 percent from the previous season's record level to 8.0 million tons. This would be the second largest export level on record. Brazilian soybean exports are enhanced by larger availabilities, favorable world prices, elimination of its export taxes on soybeans, and improvements in its transportation system. Given higher soybean production, Argentina is forecast to bounce back with exports projected to double the low export performance in 1996/97 caused by drought that reduced soybean supplies.
Forecast world soybean imports for 1997/98 are projected to rise in response to continued strong demand in China, Mexico and Brazil. China's soybean needs are expected to exceed last year's level in response to a tight supply situation coupled with a year to year rise in demand for soybeans. China's 1997 soybean crop is forecast to exceed last year's harvest, but is expected to fall short of historical levels. In Mexico, economic growth and lower inflation has boosted consumer's purchasing power and has contributed to an increase in demand for soybeans and products. In addition, recent foreign investment in expanded crushing capacity in Mexico is expected to boost soybean imports.
Soybean yields in Brazil are expected to reach record levels in 1997, with more than one-fourth of the crop forecast to be exported. Brazil's strong export program coupled with its growing domestic crush industry are expected to support larger imports next year. Imports in 1997/98 are forecast to increase 1.2 million tons from the previous year's level to 2.0 million tons. Paraguay is expected to supply some of Brazil's import needs due to its larger crop and close proximity to Brazilian markets. The United States is also expected to supply a substantial quantity of soybeans to Brazil in 1997/98.
World soybean ending stocks are projected to rebound in 1997/98. Stocks are forecast to double in the United States supported by a 14 percent increase in soybean production this year. Brazil's stocks are expected to rise, but will likely be constrained by strong exports and growth in domestic crush volume that will continue to hold stocks below historical levels. Argentina's stocks are projected to recover to its highest level since 1994/95 given its increased soybean output.
Global soybean meal exports in 1997/98 are forecast at 35.2 million tons with increases in the U.S., Argentina and India. World soybean meal use is forecast to reach 96.8 million tons, up 5 percent for the second year in a row. This increase is attributed to continuous strength in soybean meal demand in Asia, reflecting a 21 percent increase in China's soybean meal imports and a 15 percent rise in consumption. China's higher soybean meal consumption forecast will further reduce its soybean meal exports to an estimated 25,000 tons. In the United States, soybean meal usage is forecast to increase in expectation of higher hog numbers and increased profitability of poultry production. Projected lower world soybean meal prices are expected to boost soybean meal imports by the EU 3-percent above last year's estimate and support a 3 percent increase in soybean meal consumption.
World soybean oil exports in 1997/98 are forecast to reach 6.2 million tons reflecting significant increases by the major suppliers. The United States' exports are forecast to increase 17 percent above the previous year to 930,000 tons. The U.S. soybean oil season average price is projected to increase from 23.0 cents to 26.0 cents per pound reflecting a strengthening in demand and reduction in stocks. Brazilian soybean oil exports and domestic use are projected to increase nearly 4 percent next year. Brazilian soybean oil consumption has been on an upswing due to its improved economy and reduced inflation rate giving consumers greater buying power. On the import side, China is expected to remain the major importer of soybean oil in response to its growing needs.
Soybeans and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Soybeans
Production 117,747 137,650 124,440 131,356 147,242
United States 50,919 68,493 59,243 64,837 74,077
Brazil 24,700 25,900 23,700 26,500 28,000
Argentina 12,400 12,500 12,430 11,500 14,200
China 15,310 16,000 13,500 13,220 13,500
Paraguay 1,800 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,700
EU-15 807 1,029 939 1,153 1,442
Imports 28,370 32,806 32,075 36,254 38,585
EU-15 13,111 16,049 14,240 15,118 15,075
Japan 4,855 4,837 4,776 5,000 4,850
Taiwan 2,500 2,598 2,646 2,374 2,500
Mexico 2,200 1,867 2,401 3,063 3,100
Brazil 110 1,200 800 800 2,000
Exports 28,180 32,157 31,949 35,981 38,571
United States 16,032 22,810 23,165 24,004 26,127
Brazil 5,427 3,571 3,454 8,000 7,350
Argentina 3,074 2,503 2,087 750 1,500
Paraguay 1,200 1,450 1,600 1,650 1,675
China 1,100 394 222 200 200
Dom. Consumption 120,858 131,940 131,546 135,581 141,864
United States 37,326 42,398 40,318 42,515 44,321
EU-15 13,581 16,351 15,011 16,062 16,182
Brazil 20,042 21,789 23,170 21,472 21,800
Argentina 9,269 9,090 10,811 11,446 12,400
China 14,335 15,761 14,073 15,220 16,300
Soybean Meal
Production 81,270 87,170 89,145 92,313 96,696
United States 27,682 30,182 29,508 31,026 32,182
EU-15 9,845 11,486 10,905 11,711 11,770
Brazil 14,495 15,869 17,040 15,881 15,958
Argentina 7,150 7,001 8,382 8,924 9,658
China 6,160 6,554 6,038 6,900 7,760
Imports 29,260 31,250 32,712 33,734 35,264
EU-15 16,470 16,801 15,791 14,983 15,495
China 0 50 1,550 3,300 4,000
Exports 29,947 30,915 33,773 33,899 35,211
Brazil 10,306 10,445 11,941 10,660 10,650
Argentina 6,759 6,727 8,223 8,600 9,150
United States 4,859 6,094 5,445 6,441 6,713
EU-15 3,854 3,669 4,071 4,153 4,053
India 2,200 1,580 2,600 2,500 3,000
Dom. Consumption 80,722 87,083 88,135 92,355 96,834
United States 22,935 24,079 24,141 24,646 25,582
EU-15 22,683 24,424 22,599 22,683 23,165
Brazil 4,182 5,376 5,210 5,400 5,500
China 5,110 5,329 7,488 10,175 11,735
Soybean Oil
Production 18,249 19,698 20,171 20,723 21,782
United States 6,328 7,082 6,913 7,142 7,561
Brazil 3,467 3,796 4,034 3,759 3,777
EU-15 2,239 2,580 2,465 2,658 2,664
Argentina 1,518 1,486 1,779 1,894 2,050
China 1,141 1,214 1,147 1,312 1,475
Imports 4,735 6,102 5,129 5,843 6,279
China 640 1,702 1,445 1,650 1,750
EU-15 501 633 542 518 549
Exports 4,851 5,923 5,294 5,907 6,189
Argentina 1,445 1,408 1,556 1,775 2,000
EU-15 909 1,293 1,112 1,199 1,172
Brazil 1,345 1,486 1,600 1,325 1,325
United States 694 1,216 450 930 1,089
Dom. Consumption 18,419 19,460 19,638 20,867 21,994
United States 5,870 5,858 6,108 6,448 6,497
Brazil 352 371 375 384 306
China 1,763 2,527 2,611 2,852 3,230
EU-15 1,848 1,920 1,951 1,978 2,044
Sunflowerseed and Products
World sunflowerseed production for 1997/98 is forecast at 25.3 million tons, up 6 percent from last year. This increase is in response to improved yields in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, and expanded acreage in Argentina and the United States. In the United States, sunflowerseed acreage was up 12 percent to 1.1 million hectares. However, reduced yields in 1997 limited production increases to 4 percent with total production estimated at 1.7 million tons.
Improved weather in the FSU and Eastern Europe helped boost yields an average of 24 percent in 1997 leading to increases in sunflowerseed production in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. However, reduced plantings in Russia and the Ukraine kept production increases lower, while production declined in Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia despite higher yields due to reduced acreage. Reduced plantings reflect both last years's higher plantings and the impact of the 1996 drought on grower returns last season. Sunflowerseed production in the FSU is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, up 17 percent from last year, while production in Romania, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia, are down a combined 8 percent to 2.1 million tons.
Argentina is expected to post a gain in sunflowerseed production for 1997/98 as area planted rises nearly 14 percent to 3.3 million hectares. In both the U.S. and Argentina, increased plantings are in response to growers returning to sunflowerseed production after diverting acreage to grains over the past few years.
Total world sunflowerseed exports for 1997/98 are projected to rise 3 percent to 3.7 million tons. The FSU, Argentina and the EU account for most of the exports with the EU accounting for nearly two-thirds of world imports. Total worldwide consumption in 1998 is projected to rise 4 percent compared to last year in response to the increase in supply with the EU representing 22 percent of the world total.
Sunflowerseed meal production is projected to increase slightly in 1997/98 despite a slight decline in world crush volume. This occurred in response to declines in less efficient crush markets in Eastern Europe and China and expansion in more efficient markets in the EU and Argentina. Meal production in the FSU is expected to increase in 1997/98 due to the increase in supplies resulting from improved sunflowerseed yields. However, sunflowerseed meal production is only expected to rise 4 percent to 1.6 million tons compared to the 18 percent increase in sunflowerseed production due to the increase in sunflowerseed exports noted earlier. Within the FSU, sunflowerseed meal production is expected to climb in the Ukraine but should be reduced in Russia, where the increase in sunflowerseed exports should be greater. Meal production in the U.S. is expected to remain essentially unchanged in 1997/98.
A moderate increase in worldwide demand for protein meals is projected for 1997/98 which is expected to impact the demand for sunflowerseed meal. Exports of sunflowerseed meal in 1997/98 are forecast to remain unchanged with about 85 percent of the total world sunflowerseed meal exports forecast to go to the EU.
Sunflowerseed oil production in 1997/98 is forecast to increase 3 percent in 1997/98 to 8.9 million tons with the increase expected in the major producing countries of Argentina, the FSU and the EU. Production in the U.S. is expected to remain near last year's level at 362,000 tons. Sunflowerseed oil exports are forecast to increase in 1997/98 in response to the larger supplies and growing demand for vegetable oil. Increases are expected for all major exporters including Argentina, the EU, the FSU, and the United States. World imports, forecast at 3.4 million tons, are expected to increase across all the major import markets.
Sunflowerseed and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Sunflowerseed
Production 20,774 23,403 25,757 23,722 25,297
Argentina 3,850 5,900 5,600 5,200 6,000
FSU 5,261 4,368 7,380 5,212 6,132
EU-15 3,506 4,026 3,210 3,896 3,709
United States 1,167 2,194 1,819 1,627 1,699
China 1,282 1,370 1,270 1,325 1,250
India 1,400 1,204 1,400 1,500 1,500
Imports 2,506 3,143 3,717 2,812 3,593
EU-15 2,182 2,293 2,768 2,006 2,654
Turkey 100 550 500 350 450
Mexico 61 45 71 138 150
Exports 2,568 3,188 3,766 2,743 3,687
EU-15 702 767 628 703 683
FSU 760 713 1,820 1,375 1,750
Argentina 580 884 550 100 700
Dom. Consumption 20,556 23,207 25,108 24,195 25,244
EU-15 4,832 5,442 5,329 5,216 5,649
FSU 4,484 3,725 5,374 4,369 4,554
Argentina 3,290 5,011 5,060 5,110 5,300
Sunflowerseed Meal
Production 8,362 9,502 10,034 9,871 10,080
EU-15 2,356 2,585 2,511 2,504 2,675
Argentina 1,393 2,129 2,100 2,121 2,226
FSU 1,523 1,224 1,808 1,548 1,605
China 488 542 470 493 470
India 590 500 585 622 630
Imports 2,139 2,679 2,855 2,932 2,904
EU-15 1,799 2,174 2,471 2,565 2,517
FSU 80 40 15 10 10
Exports 2,136 2,800 2,917 2,940 2,959
Argentina 1,300 1,996 1,954 2,000 2,068
EU-15 407 388 658 660 673
India 220 85 65 50 50
Dom. Consumption 8,405 9,262 9,832 9,916 10,100
EU-15 3,761 4,279 4,295 4,391 4,540
FSU 1,603 1,201 1,728 1,595 1,663
United States 291 564 433 404 404
Sunflowerseed Oil
Production 7,077 8,199 8,951 8,651 8,903
EU-15 1,798 2,086 2,026 2,038 2,166
Argentina 1,280 1,980 2,000 1,970 2,120
FSU 1,542 1,287 1,985 1,673 1,733
India 470 400 455 493 490
Turkey 319 445 482 416 489
Imports 2,387 3,321 3,152 3,087 3,439
EU-15 627 698 690 590 622
FSU 248 317 380 224 354
Mexico 213 195 253 200 220
Turkey 278 316 200 240 310
Exports 2,325 3,450 3,128 3,309 3,464
Argentina 920 1,556 1,510 1,510 1,640
EU-15 659 890 742 876 919
United States 204 444 285 325 283
Dom. Consumption 7,244 8,044 8,585 8,779 9,014
EU-15 1,746 1,811 1,880 1,816 1,918
FSU 1,664 1,513 1,877 1,940 1,901
Turkey 514 548 607 606 715
Rapeseed and Products
World rapeseed production is expected to increase in 1997/98 as production rebounds in Canada and the EU. Lower grain prices in 1996/97 coupled with strong demand for protein meals have prompted a return to rapeseed planting. Planted area is expected to expand by nearly 2 million hectares in 1997/98 with total world production to rise 10 percent to 33.6 million tons. In Canada, rapeseed production is forecast to rise 1.0 million tons to 6.1 million tons. Area planted is expected to increase 41 percent to nearly 4.9 million hectares. The increased plantings are in response to lower wheat prices and crop rotation considerations. Yields in 1997 are estimated at 1.26 tons/ha, somewhat lower than earlier projections due to hot, dry weather in parts of Saskatchewan and late plantings in the Peace River area.
In 1996/97, EU-15 rapeseed plantings were reduced, mainly due to severe winter weather in Northern Europe. Production was 15 percent lower than in 1995/96, resulting in a tight supply situation in 1996/97 and a high price premium for rapeseed vis-a-vis grains.
Given the reduction in obligatory set-aside to 5 percent under CAP, together with the attractive price relation between rapeseed and grains, producers increased plantings for 1997/98. Total rapeseed plantings, the bulk of which is winter rapeseed, are forecast to rise 3 percent. EU production for 1997 is forecast to rise 15 percent to 8.4 million tons. Marked improvement in yields, particularly in Germany where yields were up 35 percent, led to this years production increase.
Other increases in rapeseed production include Australia and the United States where lower wheat prices relative to rapeseed have resulted in an increase in area planted and subsequent increase in production. In Australia, production is expected to reach 850,000 tons on 600,000 ha, but yields are expected to be reduced due to drier weather. U.S. production is up 85 percent to 406,000 tons on 290,000 ha. Rapeseed production in China is up 200,000 tons this year despite slightly reduced acreage due to better growing conditions and resulting improvement in yields.
World rapeseed exports are forecast to rise 3 percent in 1997/98 to 5.6 million tons, with Canada, the EU, and the United States accounting for nearly all of the increase. The increase in rapeseed production this year was the driving force in export growth. But export growth is expected to account for only 5 percent of production growth, leaving over 2.7 million tons of additional rapeseed to go into local markets. Total world crush is expected higher this year in response to the increase in production. Crush is forecast at 30.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons or 6 percent from 1996/97. Both Canada and the EU account for nearly two-thirds of the increase in crush this year, with smaller increase noted for China, Australia, and the United States. World ending stocks, in response to the increase in production, are forecast to improve to 1.1 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons from a year ago.
With the increase in crush, world rapeseed meal and oil production are expected to rise to 18.3 million and 11.1 million tons, respectively in 1997/98. However, meal exports are expected to show only modest gains at 4.2 million tons. Both Canada and the EU are expected to post significant gains in 1997/98, but a 300,000 tons decline in China's exports will offset much of the increase. The decline in China is expected due to increased domestic demand for meal. Rapeseed meal imports are expected to be higher in the United States, with somewhat smaller increase in Japan and South Korea. World rapeseed oil exports are forecast to increase 346,000 tons to 2.6 million tons primarily on the strength of increased exports by Canada and the EU. On the import side, China is expected to import 33 percent more rapeseed oil in 1997/98 or 500,000 tons, and accounting for most of the increase in world rapeseed oil imports. World rapeseed oil consumption is forecast to rise 394,000 tons to 11.1 million tons. The largest consumption increases are forecast for China, the United States, and the EU, with smaller increases noted for Canada and Mexico.
Rapeseed and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Rapeseed
Production 26,721 30,293 34,605 30,631 33,640
China 6,940 7,492 9,777 9,200 9,400
EU-15 6,594 6,985 8,271 7,137 8,439
Canada 5,480 7,233 6,436 5,062 6,100
India 5,390 5,884 6,200 6,300 6,200
Imports 5,198 5,910 5,635 5,474 5,542
EU-15 2,317 2,803 2,521 2,060 2,044
Japan 1,851 1,832 1,979 1,900 1,925
United States 351 286 253 259 200
Mexico 531 500 550 550 600
Exports 5,284 5,854 5,844 5,405 5,577
Canada 3,348 3,912 2,804 2,400 2,460
EU-15 1,669 1,619 1,923 2,360 2,418
Dom. Consumption 26,977 30,182 33,767 31,358 33,464
EU-15 7,262 8,202 8,774 6,926 8,008
China 6,890 7,727 9,770 9,200 9,400
India 5,390 5,884 6,200 6,300 6,200
Rapeseed Meal
Production 14,807 16,480 18,610 17,378 18,270
EU-15 3,563 4,244 4,621 3,627 4,150
China 3,846 4,311 5,452 5,189 5,200
India 3,290 3,570 3,779 3,840 3,780
Canada 1,282 1,432 1,569 1,535 1,749
Japan 1,067 1,065 1,080 1,075 1,126
Imports 3,430 3,806 3,880 3,869 4,137
EU-15 1,859 2,087 2,062 2,074 2,192
United States 708 739 919 850 925
Korea, Rep. of 437 526 500 500 550
Japan 228 209 204 250 275
Exports 3,355 3,548 4,299 4,162 4,186
EU-15 1,057 1,152 1,356 1,052 1,168
Canada 933 1,068 1,182 1,020 1,228
India 650 965 1,040 1,200 1,200
China 450 86 307 500 200
Dom. Consumption 14,888 16,600 18,094 17,195 18,194
EU-15 4,345 5,067 5,250 4,700 5,148
China 3,396 4,236 5,145 4,689 5,000
India 2,640 2,605 2,739 2,640 2,580
Rapeseed Oil
Production 9,030 10,093 11,393 10,530 11,131
EU-15 2,517 2,988 3,269 2,573 2,900
China 2,047 2,295 2,904 2,763 2,793
India 1,620 1,750 1,856 1,890 1,860
Canada 901 1,060 1,154 1,131 1,290
Japan 790 750 820 788 800
Imports 2,208 2,766 2,357 2,399 2,572
EU-15 658 764 735 760 781
China 360 944 303 375 500
United States 412 425 497 519 543
Exports 2,229 2,643 2,620 2,245 2,591
EU-15 1,538 1,797 1,812 1,402 1,676
Canada 414 424 510 490 615
Dom. Consumption 9,007 10,345 11,078 10,720 11,114
China 2,314 2,997 3,088 3,013 3,193
EU-15 1,666 2,010 2,180 1,957 2,004
India 1,655 1,800 1,896 1,930 1,910
Japan 797 758 820 810 803
Cottonseed and Products
World cottonseed production is forecast to increase slightly to 34.8 million tons in 1997/98 as the foremost producers, China, the United States, and India, decrease production. Argentina, Brazil, and Greece are forecast to increase production. Global cottonseed exports are forecast to increase to 953,000 tons in 1997/98, 21 percent above last year's estimate. Australia, Benin, Greece, and the United States are forecast to account for 72 percent of the world cottonseed exports. U.S. exports of cottonseed in 1997/98 are expected to rise 11 percent to 91,000 tons. Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, and Uzbekistan are projected to account for 74 percent of cottonseed imports in 1997/98. Japan is expected to remain the world's largest importer of cottonseed in 1997/98 at 180,000 tons.
World cottonseed meal production is forecast to decrease by 2 percent to 12 million tons in 1997/98. China continues to be the largest producer of cottonseed meal with all but 50,000 tons used domestically. China traditionally exported higher volumes of cottonseed meal, but in response to rising domestic requirements exports have fallen from 950,000 tons in 1992/93 to only 50,000 tons projected next year. Global exports of cottonseed meal are expected to increase by 7 percent in 1997/98. Argentina is projected to become the leading exporter of cottonseed meal at 350,000 tons. Imports of cottonseed meal will increase by 1 percent. South Korea and the United Kingdom continue to rank as the first and second largest importers of cottonseed meal.
Production of cottonseed oil is projected to decline 2 percent to 3.8 million tons in 1997/98. China, the United States, India, and Uzbekistan continue to be the world largest producers of cottonseed oil. In 1997/98, exports are expected to increase 3 percent to 501,000 tons. The United States, Argentina, and Uzbekistan are expected to account for 87 percent of total cottonseed oil exports. Russia continues to be the leading importer of cottonseed oil, followed by Egypt and India. World consumption of cottonseed oil is projected to decline nearly 3 percent to 3.7 million tons from the previous year.
Cottonseed and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Cottonseed
Production 29,491 32,904 35,627 34,098 34,841
China 6,658 7,704 8,580 7,560 6,850
United States 5,754 6,898 6,213 6,481 6,404
India 4,049 4,600 5,365 5,760 5,450
FSU 3,514 3,598 3,304 2,783 3,410
Pakistan 2,736 2,722 3,570 3,179 3,500
Imports 885 1,042 892 872 895
Japan 180 184 177 177 180
EU-15 184 286 203 230 245
Mexico 140 140 100 110 110
Exports 907 1,033 935 795 953
United States 143 210 104 105 91
Dom. Consumption 29,398 32,818 35,617 34,204 34,826
China 6,640 7,694 8,579 7,562 6,852
United States 5,550 6,581 6,139 6,371 6,379
India 4,049 4,600 5,365 5,760 5,450
FSU 3,444 3,568 3,329 2,835 3,450
Cottonseed Meal
Production 10,668 11,744 13,208 12,418 12,359
China 2,613 3,013 3,411 2,919 2,639
United States 1,418 1,660 1,586 1,610 1,574
FSU 1,446 1,482 1,379 1,176 1,211
India 1,371 1,570 1,919 2,030 1,935
Pakistan 1,070 1,092 1,482 1,286 1,444
Imports 1,138 1,043 1,032 825 829
EU-15 596 524 462 356 356
Korea, Republic 293 260 300 250 250
Exports 1,129 1,096 1,112 816 900
China 525 500 406 200 200
Argentina 214 266 327 260 350
Dom. Consumption 10,699 11,692 13,092 12,445 12,280
China 2,088 2,513 3,005 2,719 2,439
India 1,346 1,555 1,899 2,008 1,915
United States 1,288 1,586 1,480 1,505 1,487
FSU 1,446 1,482 1,379 1,176 1,211
Cottonseed Oil
Production 3,376 3,727 4,113 3,864 3,851
China 778 897 1,014 868 784
United States 508 595 557 558 558
FSU 516 528 491 419 434
India 428 490 600 631 602
Pakistan 233 239 325 281 314
Imports 455 540 522 492 505
FSU 222 226 204 206 206
Egypt 82 90 107 73 80
Exports 503 589 532 487 505
FSU 297 316 282 259 259
United States 112 149 100 102 91
Dom. Consumption 3,319 3,683 4,087 3,892 3,848
China 775 897 1,013 868 784
FSU 441 438 413 366 381
India 428 530 650 681 652
United States 397 457 451 465 465
Peanuts and Products
World peanut production is forecast to decline 2.1 million tons to 24.5 million tons in 1997/98. Reduced production in the China, India, and the United States are expected to outweigh increases in Argentina and Senegal. In China, poor growing conditions reduced peanut yields 21 percent to 2.2 tons/ha resulting in a 2.1 million ton decline in production to 8.0 million tons. Harvested area was virtually unchanged at 3.6 million hectares. In India, a decline in area planted led to a reduction in total peanut production in 1997/98. Production is expected to fall 200,000 tons to 8.0 million tons with yields expected to be just under one ton per hectare. U.S. peanut production is also expected to be lower in 1997 due to reduced yields in parts of the southeastern U.S. in response to dry growing conditions. Area planted was marginally higher in 1997 with production estimated at 1.6 million tons.
Argentina's peanut production, after climbing to 462,000 tons on 239,000 hectares in 1995/96, declined 300,000 tons in 1996/97 on 275,000 ha. Drought in early 1997 reduced peanut yields significantly to 1.09 tons/ha from the previous year's 1.93 tons/ha. Production in 1997/98 (1998 harvest) is forecast to rebound to 425,000 tons on 285,000 ha. Area under cultivation will expand in 1998 as Argentina continues to invest in new technology to improve quality and yield. Peanut production in Senegal is expected to increase 120,000 tons in 1997 to 720,000 tons as government credit and fertilizer programs, along with improved weather boost yields above the 1996 level. Area planted in peanuts is expected to decline 10 percent in Senegal in 1997 limiting production gains.
Peanut exports in 1997/98 are forecast to remain relatively unchanged at 1.5 million tons despite the decline in world production. This is because most of the production declines are forecast for China and India where little of the crop is exported in any given year. Major importers continue to be the EU, Indonesia, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and the Philippines. U.S. peanut exports are forecast to remain essentially unchanged from 1996/97 at 306,000 tons.
World peanut meal production is forecast to decline 11 percent to 5.3 million tons in 1997/98 A smaller peanut crush, particularly in China and India accounts for most of the decline. Exports of peanut meal will be slightly lower in the coming year, off about 1 percent to 540,000 tons. World peanut oil production is also forecast to decline in 1997/98 due to a reduced crush. Production is forecast to reach 3.9 million tons, down 421,000 tons from the previous year while exports rise nearly 9 percent to 214,000 tons. World peanut oil consumption is forecast to decline in 1997/98 due to reduced supplies in China and India, but increased demand in the EU will help push exports higher.
Peanut and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Peanut
Production 23,983 26,464 26,276 26,649 24,514
India 7,760 8,255 7,400 8,200 8,000
China 8,420 9,682 10,200 10,140 8,000
United States 1,539 1,927 1,570 1,661 1,594
Indonesia 865 1,085 1,040 1,000 1,000
Senegal 620 720 827 600 720
Imports 1,436 1,533 1,536 1,470 1,518
EU-15 659 640 609 529 562
Indonesia 216 213 233 250 320
Japan 105 104 103 102 100
Exports 1,488 1,604 1,775 1,523 1,501
United States 251 398 374 302 306
China 472 474 457 400 100
Argentina 120 110 300 150 275
Dom. Consumption 24,151 26,246 26,235 26,654 24,535
India 7,690 8,205 7,310 8,050 7,730
China 7,951 9,214 9,753 9,740 7,900
United States 1,420 1,500 1,464 1,400 1,371
Indonesia 1,112 1,219 1,269 1,291 1,302
Peanut Meal
Production 5,240 5,882 5,726 5,942 5,280
India 2,560 2,775 2,470 2,759 2,608
China 1,780 2,165 2,285 2,325 1,800
United States 132 188 190 134 127
Senegal 114 105 105 52 72
Imports 782 639 542 548 538
EU-15 266 246 254 233 236
Indonesia 213 140 71 100 95
Thailand 207 154 131 125 120
Exports 848 631 595 547 540
India 370 315 260 300 300
China 200 38 8 10 0
Senegal 100 95 95 47 55
Peanut Oil
Production 3,671 4,139 4,116 4,307 3,886
India 1,770 1,910 1,700 1,898 1,800
China 1,156 1,460 1,598 1,684 1,350
United States 96 143 146 100 93
Senegal 96 88 88 43 60
Imports 298 291 301 216 227
EU-15 223 211 235 143 168
Exports 286 243 289 197 214
Senegal 80 82 76 49 58
China 66 13 6 6 5
Argentina 21 24 37 37 37
United States 28 44 49 9 14
Dom. Consumption 3,701 4,184 4,101 4,341 3,912
India 1,770 1,910 1,700 1,898 1,800
China 1,102 1,465 1,597 1,687 1,350
EU-15 191 184 150 109 116
United States 85 94 87 89 93
Copra and Products
Global 1997/98 copra production is projected at 5.46 million tons, up only 1 percent from production levels in 1996/97. The majority of this production increase is forecast to occur in India where copra production is expected to return to normal levels after cyclone damage in 1995/96. The Philippines is the leading producer (42 percent of world supply) with production forecast at 2.3 million tons - the same level as achieved in 1996/97.
Drought in Southeast Asia has caused some uncertainty in production levels in the Philippines and Indonesia, which is the second largest copra producer. The long-term effects of El Nino are expected to be more pronounced in 1998. World coconut oil production is projected slightly above the 1996/97 estimate at 3.4 million tons to coincide with the slight increase in copra production. Coconut oil production in the Philippines is forecast at 1.45 million tons. In Indonesia, the second major coconut oil producer, output is expected increase slightly year-to-year to reach 886,000 tons. Estimated world demand of coconut oil in 1997/98 remains sound while the U.S. - with imports forecast at 475,000 - continues to be the largest market.
Copra and Products: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Copra
Production 4,971 5,483 5,031 5,395 5,455
Philippines 1,937 2,652 1,970 2,300 2,300
Indonesia 1,465 1,285 1,460 1,460 1,480
India 550 600 610 640 680
Mexico 216 175 220 225 225
Papua New Guinea 140 140 140 140 140
Imports 258 237 223 242 241
EU-15 102 98 83 92 94
Korea, Rep. of 55 48 48 53 50
Exports 242 213 212 217 213
Papua New Guinea 70 70 70 70 70
Philippines 16 42 7 12 9
Copra Meal
Production 1,675 1,879 1,697 1,832 1,863
Philippines 597 869 631 748 748
Indonesia 510 435 475 483 500
India 205 225 230 240 255
Imports 1,008 1,157 1,037 1,034 1,078
EU-15 977 1,000 944 921 970
Exports 1,014 1,304 988 1,086 1,112
Philippines 486 864 524 641 641
Indonesia 351 287 314 320 330
Coconut Oil
Production 3,087 3,430 3,093 3,348 3,387
Philippines 1,251 1,659 1,222 1,449 1,450
Indonesia 875 780 861 874 886
India 330 370 375 390 420
Imports 1,390 1,770 1,505 1,584 1,587
EU-15 575 742 691 698 699
United States 453 499 396 460 475
Exports 1,499 1,832 1,615 1,699 1,707
Philippines 773 1,331 899 1,051 1,050
Indonesia 393 148 360 285 300
Palm Oil
World palm oil production is forecast to increase slightly to 17.6 million tons in 1997/98, although this forecast is likely to be revised as the effects of El Nino and the fires in Indonesia become more evident. Currently, it remains dry in Indonesia with total precipitation since October 1996 below seasonal norms. This dry weather, coupled with the effects of the recent of forest fires, has resulted in a reduction in Indonesia's palm oil production forecast to 5.4 million tons from earlier estimates. In Malaysia, palm oil production is forecast to rise 2 percent above the July 1997 estimate reflecting above average yields and continued expansion in area of mature fruit bearing trees in East Malaysia. Palm plantations in Malaysia are also receiving below normal precipitation. Total world exports of palm oil are forecast above the year-earlier estimate as exportable supplies are projected to increase in Malaysia. Global palm oil imports remain strong as major markets are forecast to import near or above last year's estimates.
Palm Oil: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Production 13,738 14,886 16,014 17,127 17,600
Malaysia 7,100 7,771 8,260 8,900 9,000
Indonesia 3,900 4,250 4,750 5,100 5,400
Nigeria 600 600 590 600 590
Imports 10,512 10,475 10,305 11,106 11,510
EU-15 1,981 1,902 1,993 2,001 2,000
China 1,420 1,667 1,006 1,500 1,775
Pakistan 1,060 1,210 1,015 1,100 1,150
Singapore 975 975 975 975 975
Egypt 420 370 390 390 400
Japan 348 362 348 358 359
Exports 10,760 10,543 10,716 11,442 11,596
Malaysia 6,500 6,634 6,660 7,390 7,500
Indonesia 1,930 1,798 2,082 2,100 2,250
Singapore 829 829 829 829 829
Dom. Consumption 13,954 14,722 15,375 16,661 17,633
Indonesia 2,195 2,440 2,745 3,010 3,215
Malaysia 1,227 1,170 1,366 1,554 1,625
EU-15 1,655 1,589 1,624 1,639 1,637
China 1,136 1,437 863 1,400 1,775
Fishmeal and Fish Oil
World fishmeal production is currently forecast to decrease to 6.36 million tons in 1997/98 compared to 6.68 million tons in 1996/97. While the long-term effects of El Nino are still uncertain, fishmeal and fish oil production prospects have declined in Chile and Peru, the world's leading fishmeal and fish oil producers. The El Nino weather phenomenon has significantly increased the ocean temperature off the coast of South America, driving the anchovy population out of traditional fishing areas. As a result of diminishing production prospects, stocks in these and other producing countries are shrinking, limiting export availabilities. The recent price rally in both fishmeal and oil attests to the current situation. As of Oct. 09, 1997 fishmeal prices have risen 11.9 percent compared to the average price in October last year. Fish oil prices have risen 27.4 percent over the same period. Increases in world fishmeal prices are expected to steer end-users towards high protein soybean meal.
Fishmeal and Oil: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Fishmeal
Production 7,113 6,694 6,367 6,682 6,364
Peru 2,090 1,850 1,700 1,980 1,650
Chile 1,550 1,435 1,352 1,350 1,350
FSU 520 520 520 520 520
EU-15 542 569 507 504 504
Imports 4,348 4,224 4,050 4,201 3,903
EU-15 1,417 1,078 1,002 1,066 1,066
China 670 700 800 1,050 750
Taiwan 461 424 392 390 390
Exports 4,341 4,401 3,850 4,286 3,930
Peru 2,035 1,870 1,550 1,850 1,600
Chile 1,150 1,310 1,054 1,200 1,050
EU-15 668 571 581 595 640
Fish Oil
Production 1,515 1,408 1,392 1,448 1,360
Peru 480 362 400 450 374
Chile 183 278 278 275 275
EU-15 204 197 168 169 169
Japan 100 98 60 55 53
Imports 764 900 813 804 797
EU-15 499 540 471 462 464
Norway 108 172 140 135 135
Exports 947 1,055 869 899 825
EU-15 224 220 161 153 153
Norway 128 130 125 130 96
Peru 260 300 235 240 210
Dom. Consumption 1,199 1,273 1,326 1,353 1,334
EU-15 430 544 489 480 480
Japan 135 130 120 118 117
Peru 145 119 165 185 165
Chile 123 85 145 144 144
Olive Oil
Global olive oil production is unchanged for 1997/98 at 2.0 million tons, down 11 percent from 1996/97 estimates. The European Union, world largest olive oil producer, is forecast at 731,000 tons. Tunisia, the second largest producer is projected to produce only 100,000 tons in 1997/98. Drought in the previous two years has caused a decline in Spain, Tunisia, Morocco, and Turkey.
World olive oil export for 1997/98 is forecast at 953,000 tons. The EU's olive oil exports for 1997/98 are 646,000. Italy is currently the net olive oil import with requirements of 300,000 tons annually. Olive oil is an essential ingredient in the Italian's diets. U.S. imports of olive oil remains at 130,000 tons, an increase of 4 percent from the previous year in response to strong consumer demand. In addition, U.S. exports are forecast at 10,000 tons.
Olive Oil: Supply and Distribution
Marketing Years 1993/94 - 1997/98
(1,000 Metric Tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98
Prelim. Forecast
Production 1,764 1,773 1,444 2,239 1,995
EU-15 1,299 1,278 1,111 1,631 1,637
Tunisia 220 135 80 210 100
Turkey 50 160 55 200 60
Imports 746 770 627 775 756
EU-15 523 546 425 556 529
United States 124 128 114 125 130
Exports 749 741 694 821 813
EU-15 576 517 601 587 646
Tunisia 150 143 50 127 100
Dom. Consumption 1,879 1,880 1,655 1,902 2,005
EU-15 1,343 1,344 1,178 1,393 1,492
United States 120 119 104 116 121
Tunisia 63 53 42 40 43
Turkey 70 80 54 70 65
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