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World Soybean and Product Outlook
1997/1998
Increased soybean production, lower prices, and a strong world
demand all combine to boost u.s. soybean exports to 25.3 million
tons in 1997/98. This would be the third largest export volume
and the largest export volume since 1982/83.
Despite the increase in volume, total export value is expected
to fall 15 percent to near 6 billion dollars as average soybean
export prices decline from a projected 289 dollars per metric ton
to a forecast 236 dollars per ton in 1997/98.
Major us export destinations will remain unchanged from recent
trends with the EU, Japan, Taiwan, China, and Mexico heading the
list.
World soybean imports are forecast to rise 5 percent in
1997/98, a rate slightly below the 5-year linear trend but still
a healthy level of growth. Strong demand for soybean meal
prompted by a healthy livestock sector and competitive soybean
prices will likely be the driving factors in the coming year.
Major increases in soybean imports are expected in a number of
countries.
In Brazil, current high prices coupled with the elimination of
export taxes has led to strong export activity this year.
Expectations are that this will lead to shortages for the
domestic industry prompting the increase in soybean imports in
late 1997 to early 1998. Much of this increase is expected to
come from new crop u.s. soybeans
In China, soybean imports are expected to increase in response
to a growing demand for soybean meal. However, the rate of
increase is expected to be lower in 1997/98 compared to 1996/97
due to an improved soybean harvest and growth in soybean meal
imports.
The improving Mexican economy and expansion of domestic crush
capacity is expected to lead to increased soybean imports in
1997/98. Unlike China, 90 percent of the soybean meal consumed in
Mexico is supplied from domestic crushing activity, with imported
beans accounting for 94 percent of total crush.
With domestic soybean production holding steady at 1.5 million
tons, Indonesia's growing soybean demand is expected to be
supplied entirely through increased imports in 1997/98.
Essentially all soybeans are utilized in the consumer food
sector. No soybeans are crushed in indonesia due to an abundance
of palm oil and a corresponding lack of soybean crushing
facilities. A growing livestock sector has pushed soybean meal
demand to a forecast 1.2 million tons in 1997/98, but will be
supplied totally through imports.
Taiwan's soybean imports, which is expected to decline in
1996/97 due to problems in the hog industry, is forecast to
rebound back to a more normal 2.5 million tons in 1997/98.
U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast to rise in 1997/98 in response to growing world demand. Expansion of livestock and poultry operations in many countries, lower meal prices, and a pull-back in growth of brazilian meal exports, all come together to help boost u.s. sales to foreign markets. With the lower prices, export volume is forecast to decline 20 percent to 1.3 billion dollars
In China, 1997/98 soybean meal demand is forecast to increase
11 percent in response to continued expansion of the livestock
and poultry sectors. While increased soybean production and
imports should help supply some of the additional demand for
soybean meal, imports will need to rise 10 percent to 3 million
pounds to close the gap.
Soybean meal imports for the EU Are forecast to rise in
1997/98. Increased demand for protein meals, encouraged by lower
soybean and product prices, is expected to push total consumption
to 37.6 million tons, up 3 percent from the current level.
Soybean meal accounts for approximately 60 percent of protein
meal consumption in the EU.
Eastern Europe's soybean meal imports are forecast to rise in
1997/98 as protein meal consumption returns to more
"normal" levels. Import levels for 1996/97 are
projected to be reduced due to a combination of higher soybean
meal prices this year and abundant supplies of competitively
priced sunflowerseed meal.
CHART 5
Soybean oil exports by the U.S. are forecast to increase in
1997/98 due to continued growth in trade with China and a general
increase in world-wide consumption of vegetable oils. Unlike the
situation with soybeans and soybean meal, prices for soybean oil
are expected to be somewhat higher in the coming year, helping to
boost total soybean oil export value. Based on current trade
patterns, China accounts for roughly 1/3 of U.S. soybean oil
exports. Through April 1997, soybean oil trade with China has
totaled 284,000 tons with another 55,000 tons shipped to Hong
Kong. If you include Hong Kong sales, current sales to China
account for nearly 50 percent of U.S. exports and 70 percent of
the total increase in soybean oil exports projected in 1996/97.
For more information, contact William George, Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco, and Seeds Division, FAS.
