|
|
|
|
|
|
February 1997
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA's Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-323), February 12, 1997.
This report was prepared by the Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco and Seeds Division, FAS. Room 5632. 14th and Independence Ave. Washington DC 20250-1050. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, by calling (202) 720-7037, or by FAX (202) 720-7670.
The next issue of the Oilseeds and Products circular will be available electronically after 3:30 PM EDT (local Time) on March 12, 1997.
Projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 1996/97 were reduced this month. A reduction in soybeans stocks was only partially offset by increases in sunflowerseed and cottonseed stocks. Soybean ending stocks were lowered 408,000 tons to 3.8 million tons (140 million bushels), the lowest since 1976/77 and the lowest relative to use since 1972/73. Small increases in soybean crush to 38.4 million tons and soybean exports to 24.6 million tons reduced ending stocks. Increased crush is based on larger soybean meal export prospects. Soybean oil exports were increased 45,000 tons from last month to 839 million tons.
Increases in projected exports for soybeans and products are based on a record strong year-to-date pace aided by seasonally strong purchases by China and improved prospects for imports by China. China's soybean imports were increased 200,000 tons to 1.7 million tons, soybean meal imports were increased to 2.1 million tons, soybean oil imports were raised slightly to 1.55 million tons, and palm oil imports were reduced to 1.5 million tons.
Soybean and sunflowerseed crop forecasts for South America were increased this month, with record soybean crops of 26.5 million tons in Brazil and 13.5 million tons in Argentina expected, each up 500,000 tons from last month. The impact on U.S. trade will likely be distributed about equally between the 1996/97 and 1997/98 marketing years. A larger sunflowerseed crop in Argentina, up 400,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, was a factor in lowering U.S. export prospects for both oil-type sunflowerseed and sunflowerseed oil. Cottonseed oil export prospects were also down this month. Larger ending inventories of both sunflowerseed and cottonseed oils nearly offset the reduction in this month's soybean oil inventories.
U.S. season-average prices for soybeans were increased 15 cents per bushel this month to $6.75 to $7.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices were raised $5 per short ton to $230 to $245 per ton while soybean oil prices were up slightly to 22.75 to 24.25 cents per pound.
World oilseed production for 1996/97 is projected at 257.3 million tons, up 2 million tons from last month and up 1.2 million tons from last year. An 800,000-ton rise in global soybean production to 132.8 million tons accounted for nearly half of the change with increases for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by a small reduction in India's soybean crop, to 3.8 million tons. Other significant oilseed changes include a 400,000-ton increase in Argentina's sunflowerseed crop and a 350,000-ton increase in the EU rapeseed crop. U.S. oilseed production was unchanged at 74.9 million tons, up 5.8 million tons from last year.
World soybean production in 1996/97 is forecast at 132.8 million tons, more than 800,000 tons above the previous month. Projected larger South American supplies offset the reduced soybean crop in India. Favorable growing conditions for Brazil and Argentina have raised yields resulting in a projected increase in soybean output this season. India's soybean producers harvested a record 5.0 million hectares in 1996, but due to heavy rainfall from a delayed monsoon, yields were reduced and production declined to 3.8 million tons. This is 200,000 tons below last month's estimate and 15 percent lower than the previous year. Larger supplies in South America and recent policy changes in Brazil support an increase in forecast soybean exports. In the United States, crush continues at a brisk pace and coupled with strong export sales to date, has resulted in a further reduction in forecast 1996/97 carry over stocks to 3.8 million tons.
Global soybean meal exports in 1996/97 rose to 32.7 million tons this month reflecting continued strong export demand for U.S. soybean meal. Despite lower soybean output expected in India, soybean crush is expected to decline only slightly from 1995/96 as supplies carried over from last season's large crop work their way into the processing channel. As a result, India's 1996/97 soybean meal export forecast remained unchanged at 2.2 million tons. The world soybean meal import forecast was raised nearly 2 percent to 33.3 million tons reflecting continued demand growth in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa. The global soybean oil situation reflects the smaller U.S. carry over stocks. World soybean oil imports were raised reflecting larger import estimates for China, Iran and Mexico.
South America Expands Soybean Production in 1997
South American soybean output could climb to a record 44 million tons in 1997, compared to the nearly 65 million tons produced in the United States in 1996. Similarly, South American soybean crush will likely reach a record 34.3 million tons this year while the U.S. crush is expected to top out at 38.4 million tons in 1996/97. The U.S. is expected to export nearly 36.5 million tons of soybeans and products in 1996/97, while South American exports are expected to reach a record of 53.7 million tons during 1997/98 (local marketing year).
The gains shown by South America in the soybean and products export market are the result of domestic and trade policy rather than a lack of U.S. competitiveness. Government policies are critical factors affecting international competition in soybean and products. Before 1995, U.S. programs were a main factor limiting expansion of soybean area. Today, soybeans must compete intensely with corn, environmental uses, and to a lesser extent with other crops for the same arable land. Under these circumstances, it is extremely difficult for the U.S. to secure additional share in the world soybean and products export market.
South America, on the other hand, has continuously increased area, and thus production, exports, and market share. Recently, new markets in Africa and Asia have encouraged South American exports beyond their mostly European market . These gains in market share have been primarily the result of expansion in production and crushing capacity rather than greater competitiveness.
South America is likely to gain the most from the rapid growth in world soybean meal consumption if U.S. soybean production is not boosted dramatically. The U.S. industry would also like to export more value added soybean products instead of soybeans to increase income and fully utilize processing capacity. U.S. soybean exports have remained relatively strong due to erratic supplies from Brazil and Argentina, and robust import demand resulting from new crushing facilities in Asia (China, Malaysia). The elimination of differential taxes in Brazil, and further expansion of crushing capacity around the world is likely to alter patterns of trade in soybeans and products. Gains in U.S. share of the world market continue to be limited by the level of internal production, market access constraints, and subsidized competition.
World oilseed production, excluding soybeans, was increased 1.1 million tons in February to 124.4 million tons. Increases in Argentina's sunflowerseed production, Indonesia palm kernel and copra production, and rapeseed production in the United Kingdom accounted for most of the increases this month. A similar increase in world oilseed meal production was also forecast this month with total production, excluding soybean meal, up 1.0 million tons to 55.9 million tons. Production increases were mainly noted for sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and palm kernel meal. The world vegetable and marine oils production forecast, excluding soybean oil, was increased 888,000 tons in February on the strength of increases in sunflowerseed, rapeseed, palm, palm kernel, and olive oil production. Total production is expected to reach 52.4 million tons in the coming year.
Argentina Sunflowerseed Output Expected to Reach 5.4 Million Tons in 1997
In Argentina, forecast sunflowerseed harvested area was increased 200,000 hectares this month to 2.9 million hectares resulting in a 400,000-ton increase in forecast production to 5.4 million tons. Expected yields remained nearly unchanged at 1.9 tons/ha as growing conditions remained favorable in the main production regions. Some poor grain filling has been noted which could ultimately impact total production, but is not likely to play an important role in this year's total output. Total sunflowerseed production is expected to fall 4 percent below last year's level as area planted in sunflowerseed declined 9 percent this season. Early indications of greater grower returns for grains compared to sunflowerseed helped limit plantings this season. The 1997/98 sunflowerseed export forecast was increased 100,000 tons to 700,000 tons this month in response to the boost in production. The remaining 300,000-ton increase in sunflowerseed production is expected to be crushed and exported as meal and oil in the coming marketing year.
UK Rapeseed Production Grows 9 Percent in 1996
The 1996 rapeseed harvest estimate for the United Kingdom was revised upward this month to 1.45 million tons, an increase of 350,000 ton over the previous forecast and 9 percent above the 1995 harvest. This increase is attributed to ideal growing conditions and minimal disease problems, as well as higher yielding new varieties. The 1996 crop is expected to almost meet the UK's domestic requirements this season. Estimated 1996/97 rapeseed crush was increased this month, but only 120,000 tons or 10 percent as margins for rapeseed relative to other oilseeds are expected to be lower. The additional domestic production expected this year will likely reduce the need for imported rapeseed. Consequently, the lower UK import estimate for 1996/97 (down 64% from last year to 155,000 tons). The rapeseed export forecast was also increased 100,000 tons this month, but is still expected to fall below the level achieved in 1995/96. Rapeseed meal and oil production forecasts were increased this month in response to the increase in forecast crush. Both meal and oil production forecasts were raised about 10 percent this month with the additional supplies either consumed locally or exported.
The palm oil production in Indonesia is forecast to reach 5.0 million tons in 1996/97, up 200,000 tons from last month and 450,000 tons from last year. The increase is due to a larger harvested area as more trees planted 2 « - 3 years ago have started bearing fruit. For close to a decade, each year has seen a rapid area expansion for oil palm plantations in many of the islands in the eastern part of Indonesia including West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Irian Jaya, and South Sulawesi, and also in the western areas of South Sumatera, Bangka, Jambi, and Bengkulu. It is estimated that total oil palm area planted increased to approximately 2.2 million ha during 1996/97. Many domestic and foreign private investors have been opening new areas for oil palm plantations. Area expansion will continue increasing as new investors continue expanding their existing plantations. Future palm oil production is expected to increase through the year 2000 as approximately 50 percent of the area planted in oil palms has not reached full production.
Indonesia's 1996 copra production estimate was increased to 1.4 million tons this month due to good weather conditions during 1995 which supported the growth of coconut fruits in 1996. The 1997 production forecast was also increased in February to 1.4 million tons as rainfall patterns in 1996 were favorable for coconut production in 1997 while expected grower returns in 1997 remain attractive. Production of copra meal for 1996 is estimated at 469,000 tons following the increased copra production. The 1997 copra meal production forecast was increased 34,000 tons to 476,000. Favorable copra meal prices have helped spur exports during 1996 to an estimated 310,000 tons. Exports during 1997 are forecast to increase to 326,000 tons. Western Europe remains the major export destination for Indonesian copra meal accounting for approximately 70 percent of export volume. Coconut oil production for 1996 is estimated at 830,000 tons in response to higher copra crushing. The production forecast for 1997 was increased 48,000 tons this month to 850,000 tons in response to increased crush. Coconut oil exports during 1996 are estimated to have increased dramatically (by more than 120 percent) to approximately 330,000 tons. This increase is reportedly due to lower exports from the Philippines compared to the previous year, favorable prices at the international market, and high carry over stocks from 1995. Exports during Jan-Sep 1996 reached 260,000 tons, a 136-percent increase from the previous year during the same period. Exports of coconut oil during 1997, while increased slightly this month, are forecast to decline from the 1996 level to 270,000 tons due to better prices and increased demand in the domestic market.
TABLE 1.
MAJOR OILSEEDS: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
PRODUCTION
SOYBEAN 117.34 117.75 137.78 124.39 132.01 132.81
COTTONSEED 31.59 29.48 32.88 35.35 33.47 33.39
PEANUT 23.08 24.00 26.48 26.08 26.18 26.28
SUNFLOWERSEED 21.28 20.74 23.37 25.78 23.81 24.28
RAPESEED 25.31 26.71 30.29 34.58 29.70 30.05
COPRA 4.92 4.97 5.48 4.95 5.14 5.14
PALM KERNEL 4.00 4.25 4.62 4.97 5.01 5.30
TOTAL 227.52 227.89 260.90 256.09 255.31 257.25
EXPORTS
SOYBEAN 29.81 28.16 32.12 31.74 33.86 34.41
COTTONSEED 0.91 0.91 1.03 0.92 0.83 0.83
PEANUT 1.34 1.43 1.53 1.57 1.49 1.49
SUNFLOWERSEED 1.87 2.57 3.19 3.55 3.09 3.08
RAPESEED 4.02 5.28 5.86 5.64 4.76 5.21
COPRA 0.23 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.21 0.19
PALM KERNEL 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
TOTAL 38.23 38.65 44.01 43.67 44.29 45.26
IMPORTS
SOYBEAN 30.42 28.37 32.79 32.51 33.77 34.17
COTTONSEED 0.91 0.89 1.06 0.94 0.79 0.86
PEANUT 1.32 1.44 1.52 1.49 1.52 1.50
SUNFLOWERSEED 1.97 2.51 3.14 3.53 2.99 3.08
RAPESEED 4.01 5.20 5.91 5.43 4.84 5.26
COPRA 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.25
PALM KERNEL 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
TOTAL 38.96 38.69 44.71 44.19 44.21 45.17
CRUSH
SOYBEAN 96.75 102.06 109.92 112.14 113.55 114.12
COTTONSEED 24.96 22.98 25.29 27.96 25.50 25.72
PEANUT 12.53 12.83 14.41 14.09 14.37 14.37
SUNFLOWERSEED 18.63 17.95 20.55 22.18 21.84 22.32
RAPESEED 22.78 24.32 27.15 30.27 27.83 28.17
COPRA 4.90 4.95 5.50 4.94 5.15 5.17
PALM KERNEL 3.90 4.26 4.51 4.94 4.96 5.23
TOTAL 184.44 189.36 207.34 216.52 213.20 215.11
ENDING STOCKS
SOYBEAN 20.21 17.23 23.48 17.11 16.13 16.09
COTTONSEED 0.46 0.53 0.63 0.63 0.84 0.71
PEANUT 0.81 0.60 0.74 0.55 0.52 0.52
SUNFLOWERSEED 0.60 0.76 0.92 1.85 1.12 1.28
RAPESEED 1.14 0.80 0.97 1.79 0.83 0.96
COPRA 0.12 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.05 0.08
PALM KERNEL 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.16 0.11 0.17
TOTAL 23.53 20.15 26.99 22.17 19.60 19.81
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 2.
MAJOR PROTEIN MEALS: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
PRODUCTION
SOYBEAN 76.38 81.20 87.19 88.96 90.04 90.39
COTTONSEED 11.46 10.67 11.78 12.94 11.79 11.89
RAPESEED 14.00 14.81 16.49 18.36 16.94 17.16
SUNFLOWERSEED 8.55 8.33 9.45 9.93 9.86 10.10
FISH 5.90 6.35 6.59 6.73 6.33 6.33
PEANUT 5.11 5.24 5.88 5.73 5.86 5.86
COPRA 1.64 1.68 1.88 1.70 1.78 1.77
PALM KERNEL 2.04 2.26 2.40 2.60 2.61 2.76
TOTAL 125.08 130.53 141.65 146.95 145.20 146.24
EXPORTS
SOYBEAN 27.55 29.95 31.15 32.56 32.73 32.87
COTTONSEED 1.46 1.13 1.10 1.16 1.15 1.15
RAPESEED 3.21 3.36 3.55 4.06 3.54 3.58
SUNFLOWERSEED 1.80 2.14 2.80 2.62 2.60 2.75
FISH 3.47 4.15 4.16 4.04 4.02 4.14
PEANUT 0.65 0.85 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.61
COPRA 1.04 1.01 1.30 0.99 1.05 1.04
PALM KERNEL 1.81 1.90 2.05 2.22 2.18 2.33
TOTAL 41.00 44.48 46.76 48.27 47.88 48.46
IMPORTS
SOYBEAN 27.87 29.26 31.22 32.26 32.73 33.28
COTTONSEED 1.45 1.14 1.04 1.09 1.12 1.11
RAPESEED 3.31 3.43 3.80 3.75 3.61 3.62
SUNFLOWERSEED 1.84 2.14 2.72 2.58 2.54 2.44
FISH 3.70 4.05 4.60 4.24 3.92 3.95
PEANUT 0.68 0.78 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.61
COPRA 1.04 1.01 1.16 0.97 1.01 1.01
PALM KERNEL 1.78 1.83 1.92 2.05 2.14 2.14
TOTAL 41.67 43.63 47.10 47.56 47.69 48.16
CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 76.05 80.60 86.63 88.80 90.27 90.87
COTTONSEED 11.42 10.70 11.72 12.85 11.76 11.85
RAPESEED 14.08 14.89 16.61 17.97 17.22 17.36
SUNFLOWERSEED 8.58 8.36 9.24 9.80 9.80 9.79
FISH 5.95 6.27 6.73 6.74 6.41 6.44
PEANUT 5.13 5.18 5.91 5.74 5.86 5.86
COPRA 1.65 1.63 1.82 1.69 1.75 1.73
PALM KERNEL 2.10 2.17 2.25 2.44 2.56 2.55
TOTAL 124.96 129.80 140.90 146.03 145.63 146.47
ENDING STOCKS
SOYBEAN 3.80 3.71 4.33 4.19 3.95 4.11
COTTONSEED 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16
RAPESEED 0.48 0.48 0.62 0.70 0.49 0.53
SUNFLOWERSEED 0.26 0.24 0.37 0.46 0.46 0.46
FISH 0.63 0.60 0.90 1.10 0.74 0.79
PEANUT 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
COPRA 0.12 0.16 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08
PALM KERNEL 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.27
TOTAL 5.77 5.65 6.74 6.94 6.17 6.42
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 3.
MAJOR VEGETABLE AND MARINE OILS: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
PRODUCTION
SOYBEAN 17.20 18.25 19.71 20.18 20.31 20.39
PALM 13.01 13.69 14.80 15.69 16.37 16.59
SUNFLOWERSEED 7.35 7.06 8.15 8.77 8.61 8.81
RAPESEED 8.40 9.04 10.09 11.17 10.23 10.39
COTTONSEED 3.67 3.38 3.73 4.06 3.74 3.78
PEANUT 3.60 3.63 4.03 3.96 4.04 4.04
COCONUT 3.10 3.09 3.43 3.07 3.25 3.21
OLIVE 1.80 1.76 1.77 1.61 1.80 2.00
FISH 1.19 1.24 1.52 1.44 1.25 1.25
PALM KERNEL 1.74 1.88 2.00 2.17 2.19 2.31
TOTAL 61.04 63.01 69.25 72.12 71.78 72.75
EXPORTS
SOYBEAN 4.21 4.85 6.08 5.42 5.68 5.72
PALM 1/ 8.60 9.86 9.66 9.87 10.54 10.59
SUNFLOWERSEED 2.15 2.33 3.38 3.29 3.00 3.06
RAPESEED 1.63 2.23 2.64 2.43 2.01 2.08
COTTONSEED 0.50 0.50 0.59 0.54 0.51 0.50
PEANUT 0.23 0.29 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.25
COCONUT 1.70 1.50 1.83 1.56 1.64 1.53
OLIVE 0.57 0.75 0.74 0.63 0.79 0.74
FISH 0.71 0.79 1.06 1.01 0.86 0.86
PALM KERNEL 0.92 0.93 0.84 0.89 0.81 0.92
TOTAL 21.22 24.03 27.08 25.91 26.09 26.25
IMPORTS
SOYBEAN 3.90 4.73 6.10 5.23 5.59 5.70
PALM 1/ 8.30 9.68 9.69 9.80 10.58 10.43
SUNFLOWERSEED 2.13 2.37 3.32 3.30 3.03 3.10
RAPESEED 1.72 2.21 2.77 2.37 2.11 2.16
COTTONSEED 0.45 0.46 0.54 0.51 0.52 0.52
PEANUT 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28
COCONUT 1.39 1.39 1.77 1.47 1.59 1.50
OLIVE 0.68 0.75 0.77 0.66 0.78 0.74
FISH 0.62 0.77 0.94 0.90 0.85 0.86
PALM KERNEL 0.94 0.94 0.81 0.72 0.78 0.78
TOTAL 20.42 23.59 26.99 25.26 26.12 26.06
CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 17.22 18.41 19.44 19.77 20.28 20.38
PALM 12.41 13.97 14.76 15.36 16.42 16.43
SUNFLOWERSEED 7.52 7.20 8.01 8.60 8.69 8.84
RAPESEED 8.56 9.02 10.36 11.01 10.40 10.50
COTTONSEED 3.65 3.32 3.69 4.03 3.76 3.80
PEANUT 3.69 3.65 4.07 3.97 4.08 4.08
COCONUT 2.82 2.92 3.37 3.05 3.20 3.15
OLIVE 1.89 1.88 1.88 1.80 1.77 1.90
FISH 1.13 1.19 1.36 1.32 1.28 1.28
PALM KERNEL 1.77 1.95 1.95 1.99 2.16 2.15
TOTAL 60.64 63.51 68.88 70.90 72.03 72.50
ENDING STOCKS
SOYBEAN 2.05 1.77 2.05 2.28 2.25 2.27
PALM 1.72 1.25 1.33 1.59 1.60 1.59
SUNFLOWERSEED 0.81 0.71 0.80 0.98 0.99 0.98
RAPESEED 0.42 0.43 0.30 0.39 0.33 0.37
COTTONSEED 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10
PEANUT 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04
COCONUT 0.25 0.31 0.30 0.22 0.34 0.24
OLIVE 0.98 0.87 0.79 0.63 0.52 0.73
FISH 0.23 0.27 0.30 0.31 0.28 0.28
PALM KERNEL 0.21 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.21
TOTAL 6.83 5.90 6.18 6.75 6.59 6.80
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
1/ PALM OIL TRADE EXCLUDES TRANSSHIPMENTS THROUGH SINGAPORE
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 4
MAJOR OILSEEDS, PROTEIN MEALS, FATS AND OILS:
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
WORLD OILSEEDS:
SOYBEAN 117.34 117.75 137.78 124.39 132.01 132.81
COTTONSEED 31.59 29.48 32.88 35.35 33.47 33.39
PEANUT 23.08 24.00 26.48 26.08 26.18 26.28
SUNFLOWERSEED 21.28 20.74 23.37 25.78 23.81 24.28
RAPESEED 25.31 26.71 30.29 34.58 29.70 30.05
COPRA 4.92 4.97 5.48 4.95 5.14 5.14
PALM KERNEL 4.00 4.25 4.62 4.97 5.01 5.30
TOTAL 227.52 227.89 260.90 256.09 255.31 257.25
PROTEIN MEALS:
SOYBEAN 76.38 81.20 87.19 88.96 90.04 90.39
COTTONSEED 11.46 10.67 11.78 12.94 11.79 11.89
PEANUT 5.11 5.24 5.88 5.73 5.86 5.86
SUNFLOWERSEED 8.55 8.33 9.45 9.93 9.86 10.10
RAPESEED 14.00 14.81 16.49 18.36 16.94 17.16
COPRA 1.64 1.68 1.88 1.70 1.78 1.77
PALM KERNEL 2.04 2.26 2.40 2.60 2.61 2.76
FISH 5.90 6.35 6.59 6.73 6.33 6.33
TOTAL 125.08 130.53 141.65 146.95 145.20 146.24
44% PROTEIN MEAL EQUIVALENT 2/:
SOYBEAN 76.38 81.20 87.19 88.96 90.04 90.39
COTTONSEED 9.29 8.64 9.54 10.49 9.55 9.64
PEANUT 5.74 5.89 6.61 6.44 6.58 6.58
SUNFLOWERSEED 8.07 7.87 8.92 9.38 9.31 9.54
RAPESEED 9.96 10.54 11.73 13.06 12.05 12.21
COPRA 0.74 0.76 0.85 0.77 0.80 0.80
PALM KERNEL 0.73 0.80 0.85 0.93 0.93 0.98
FISH 8.53 9.17 9.53 9.73 9.15 9.15
TOTAL 119.44 124.87 135.22 139.74 138.41 139.27
FATS & OILS
EDIBLE VEGETABLE:
SOYBEAN 17.20 18.25 19.71 20.18 20.31 20.39
COTTONSEED 3.67 3.38 3.73 4.06 3.74 3.78
PEANUT 3.60 3.63 4.03 3.96 4.04 4.04
SUNFLOWERSEED 7.35 7.06 8.15 8.77 8.61 8.81
RAPESEED 8.40 9.04 10.09 11.17 10.23 10.39
OLIVE 1.80 1.76 1.77 1.61 1.80 2.00
COCONUT 3.10 3.09 3.43 3.07 3.25 3.21
PALM KERNEL 1.74 1.88 2.00 2.17 2.19 2.31
PALM 13.01 13.69 14.80 15.69 16.37 16.59
TOTAL 59.85 61.77 67.72 70.68 70.53 71.50
MARINE OILS:
FISH 1.19 1.24 1.52 1.44 1.25 1.25
TOTAL 1.19 1.24 1.52 1.44 1.25 1.25
ANIMAL FATS:
BUTTER
(FAT CONTENT) 3/ 4.39 4.25 4.26 4.30 4.30 4.30
TALLOW & GREASE 7.51 7.57 7.72 8.00 8.00 8.00
TOTAL 11.91 11.82 11.98 12.29 12.29 12.29
TOTAL
(FATS & OILS) 72.94 74.83 81.23 84.41 84.07 85.04
1/ SPLIT YEARS INCLUDE NORTH. HEMISPHERE CROPS HARVESTED IN THE
LATE MONTHS OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND CERTAIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CROPS HARVESTED
IN THE EARLY MONTHS OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR. SOYBEANS,SOYBEAN
MEAL, AND SOYBEAN OIL FOR ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL HAVE BEEN
CONVERTED TO OCT-SEP BASIS. ANIMAL, MARINE AND PALM PRODUCTS
ARE GENERALLY CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES FOR THE 2ND YEAR SHOWN
2/ PROTEIN MEAL EQUIV IS CALC ON THE BASIS OF STD PROTEIN CONTENT
3/ BUTTER PROD CONVERTED TO FAT-CONTENT BASIS USING AN 80% FACTOR
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 5.
MAJOR OILSEEDS: 1/
AREA AND PRODUCTION BY MAIN PRODUCERS
AVG 90/91-94/95 PRELIM 1995/96 FORCST 1996/97
AREA 2/ PROD 4/ AREA 2/ PROD 4/ AREA 2/ PROD 4/
SOYBEAN
UNITED STATES 23.55 57.10 24.94 59.24 25.66 64.84
BRAZIL 10.64 21.63 10.95 23.40 12.00 26.50
CHINA 8.10 12.46 8.13 13.50 7.50 12.50
ARGENTINA 5.11 11.81 5.98 12.64 6.20 13.50
EUROPEAN UNION 5/ 0.46 1.35 0.29 0.94 0.31 1.07
PARAGUAY 0.98 1.67 1.10 2.30 1.20 2.50
OTHER 8.89 10.85 9.97 12.37 10.36 11.90
TOTAL 57.73 116.87 61.35 124.39 63.24 132.81
COTTONSEED
CHINA 5.90 7.87 5.42 8.44 4.80 6.86
UNITED STATES 5.01 6.00 6.48 6.21 5.19 6.60
FSU-12 2.93 3.98 2.57 3.30 2.55 2.81
INDIA 7.60 4.22 8.65 5.30 8.50 5.25
PAKISTAN 2.76 3.23 3.05 3.57 3.20 2.96
BRAZIL 1.48 0.96 1.13 0.66 0.75 0.50
OTHER 6.90 6.51 8.07 7.87 8.40 8.41
TOTAL 32.58 32.78 35.37 35.35 33.39 33.39
PEANUT
INDIA 8.33 7.90 7.80 7.40 8.20 8.20
CHINA 3.19 7.34 3.81 10.20 3.77 9.50
UNITED STATES 0.71 1.86 0.61 1.57 0.56 1.65
SENEGAL 0.88 0.68 0.89 0.81 0.90 0.85
SUDAN 0.54 0.38 0.55 0.40 0.55 0.40
BRAZIL 0.09 0.15 0.09 0.15 0.09 0.15
ARGENTINA 0.16 0.35 0.20 0.35 0.20 0.36
SOUTH AFRICA 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.14 0.20
OTHER 5.47 4.78 5.48 5.00 5.46 4.96
TOTAL 19.51 23.57 19.56 26.08 19.87 26.28
SUNFLOWERSEED
FSU-12 4.88 5.49 6.56 7.38 6.37 5.21
ARGENTINA 2.45 4.17 3.20 5.60 2.90 5.40
EASTERN EUROPE 1.54 2.33 1.93 2.72 2.10 3.11
UNITED STATES 1.01 1.44 1.36 1.82 1.01 1.63
CHINA 0.77 1.38 0.81 1.27 0.80 1.36
EUROPEAN UNION 5/ 2.68 4.00 2.38 3.23 2.33 3.94
OTHER 4.29 3.20 4.45 3.75 4.40 3.63
TOTAL 17.63 22.01 20.70 25.78 19.91 24.28
RAPESEED
CHINA 5.74 7.30 6.91 9.78 6.56 8.80
EUROPEAN UNION 5/ 2.58 6.96 2.84 8.30 2.64 7.30
CANADA 3.71 4.82 5.27 6.44 3.48 5.04
INDIA 6.23 5.45 6.40 6.20 6.30 6.00
EASTERN EUROPE 0.66 1.41 0.97 2.24 0.68 1.28
OTHER 1.33 1.22 1.74 1.63 1.65 1.64
TOTAL 20.25 27.14 24.13 34.58 21.30 30.05
TOTAL OILSEEDS 147.69 222.37 161.11 246.17 157.71 246.81
1/ SPLIT YEAR INCLUDES NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CROPS HARVESTED IN
THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND
CERTAIN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CROPS HARVESTED IN THE EARLY
MONTHS OF THE FOLLOWING YEAR.
2/ IN MILLION HECTARES
4/ IN MILLION METRIC TONS.
5/ INCLUDES THE STATISTICS FROM THE FORMER GER. DEM. REP.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 6
SOYBEANS: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES 59.61 50.92 68.49 59.24 64.84 64.84
BRAZIL 22.50 24.70 25.90 23.40 26.00 26.50
ARGENTINA 11.35 12.40 12.65 12.64 13.00 13.50
CHINA 10.30 15.31 16.00 13.50 12.50 12.50
EUROPEAN UNION 1.27 0.81 1.03 0.94 1.07 1.07
PARAGUAY 1.75 1.80 2.20 2.30 2.50 2.50
OTHER 10.55 11.81 11.51 12.37 12.10 11.90
TOTAL 117.34 117.75 137.78 124.39 132.01 132.81
EXPORTS
UNITED STATES 20.94 16.03 22.81 23.17 24.49 24.63
BRAZIL 4.06 5.43 3.57 3.20 4.00 4.20
ARGENTINA 2.42 3.07 2.50 2.20 2.30 2.50
PARAGUAY 1.25 1.20 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.55
CHINA 0.30 1.10 0.39 0.22 0.20 0.20
OTHER 0.84 1.33 1.40 1.45 1.32 1.33
TOTAL 29.81 28.16 32.12 31.74 33.86 34.41
IMPORTS
EUROPEAN UNION 15.17 13.11 16.05 14.22 14.37 14.50
GERMANY 3.31 2.79 2.96 2.85 3.00 3.00
NETHERLANDS 4.26 4.14 4.62 4.37 4.35 4.35
SPAIN 2.48 1.72 2.85 2.34 2.44 2.44
ITALY 1.33 1.17 1.30 1.16 1.11 1.11
BEL-LUX 1.31 1.22 1.37 1.21 1.21 1.21
PORTUGAL 0.56 0.53 0.95 0.65 0.62 0.62
OTHER W EUROPE 0.10 0.29 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.38
EASTERN EUROPE 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.33
FSU-12 0.23 0.10 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06
RUSSIA 0.17 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04
UKRAINE 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
CHINA 0.15 0.13 0.16 0.80 1.50 1.70
JAPAN 4.87 4.86 4.84 4.80 4.86 4.86
KOREA, REP OF 1.13 1.16 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.40
TAIWAN 2.51 2.50 2.60 2.63 2.50 2.57
INDONESIA 0.53 0.71 0.62 0.70 0.70 0.70
MEXICO 2.14 2.20 1.87 2.65 2.65 2.65
BRAZIL 0.38 0.11 1.20 0.80 1.00 1.00
OTHER 2.93 2.94 3.35 3.76 4.02 4.02
TOTAL 30.42 28.37 32.79 32.51 33.77 34.17
CRUSH
UNITED STATES 34.81 34.72 38.24 37.28 38.10 38.37
LATIN AMERICA 28.44 31.90 33.49 36.61 37.09 37.29
BRAZIL 15.55 18.44 20.19 21.40 21.20 21.30
ARGENTINA 8.49 8.77 8.69 10.10 10.40 10.50
MEXICO 2.67 2.64 2.33 2.65 2.77 2.77
EUROPEAN UNION 14.09 12.24 14.43 13.49 13.69 13.65
OTHER W EUROPE 0.10 0.28 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38
FSU-12 0.58 0.53 0.39 0.32 0.43 0.43
EASTERN EUROPE 0.53 0.42 0.45 0.49 0.56 0.56
ASIA 15.85 19.56 19.66 20.48 20.09 20.23
JAPAN 3.79 3.70 3.76 3.70 3.75 3.75
CHINA 4.49 7.61 8.09 7.45 7.50 7.70
TAIWAN 2.32 2.24 2.34 2.34 2.23 2.27
OTHER 2.36 2.42 2.88 3.10 3.21 3.21
TOTAL 96.75 102.06 109.92 112.14 113.55 114.12
ENDING STOCKS
UNITED STATES 7.96 5.69 9.11 4.99 4.21 3.80
BRAZIL 6.07 5.31 6.95 5.02 5.10 5.30
ARGENTINA 3.71 3.80 4.77 4.63 4.53 4.73
OTHER 2.49 2.43 2.65 2.46 2.29 2.26
TOTAL 20.21 17.23 23.48 17.11 16.13 16.09
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 7
SOYBEAN MEAL: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1995/96 1996/97
PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES 27.55 27.68 30.18 29.50 30.11 30.25
LATIN AMERICA 22.46 25.23 26.55 29.05 29.43 29.59
BRAZIL 12.17 14.50 15.87 16.82 16.66 16.74
ARGENTINA 6.86 7.08 7.02 8.16 8.40 8.48
MEXICO 2.08 2.06 1.86 2.12 2.21 2.21
EUROPEAN UNION 10.98 9.85 11.49 10.75 10.96 10.90
OTHER W EUROPE 0.08 0.22 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29
EASTERN EUROPE 0.42 0.33 0.36 0.39 0.44 0.44
FSU-12 0.47 0.43 0.48 0.25 0.34 0.34
ASIA 12.56 15.55 15.56 16.30 15.94 16.05
JAPAN 2.94 2.85 2.88 2.87 2.87 2.87
CHINA 3.63 6.16 6.55 6.04 6.08 6.24
TAIWAN 1.78 1.75 1.80 1.83 1.74 1.77
INDIA 2.25 2.88 2.20 3.20 2.90 2.82
OTHER 1.87 1.91 2.27 2.44 2.53 2.53
TOTAL 76.38 81.20 87.19 88.96 90.04 90.39
EXPORTS
UNITED STATES 5.65 4.86 6.09 5.45 5.90 6.03
BRAZIL 8.17 10.31 10.68 11.67 11.40 11.40
ARGENTINA 6.54 6.76 6.73 8.00 8.20 8.20
EUROPEAN UNION 4.04 3.85 3.67 3.56 3.44 3.44
CHINA 0.40 1.05 1.28 0.10 0.10 0.10
INDIA 2.01 2.20 1.58 2.50 2.20 2.20
OTHER 0.74 0.92 1.13 1.29 1.50 1.50
TOTAL 27.55 29.95 31.15 32.56 32.73 32.87
IMPORTS
EUROPEAN UNION 15.49 16.47 16.80 16.42 16.12 16.12
FRANCE 3.50 3.80 3.79 3.34 3.40 3.40
GERMANY 2.22 2.12 1.99 1.90 1.75 1.75
NETHERLANDS 1.40 1.37 1.78 1.70 1.70 1.70
ITALY 1.62 1.75 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
OTHER W EUROPE 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05
EASTERN EUROPE 1.57 1.61 2.00 1.92 1.88 1.88
FSU-12 1.45 0.57 0.52 0.35 0.35 0.35
RUSSIA 1.10 0.20 0.21 0.10 0.10 0.10
UKRAINE 0.30 0.25 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.25
ASIA & OCEANIA 4.16 4.58 5.29 6.49 7.60 7.90
MID-EAST/N AFR 2.20 2.69 3.01 3.34 3.16 3.24
LATIN AMERICA 1.96 2.28 2.38 2.57 2.55 2.73
OTHER 0.97 1.01 1.18 1.12 1.02 1.02
TOTAL 27.87 29.26 31.22 32.26 32.73 33.28
CONSUMPTION
UNITED STATES 22.00 22.94 24.08 24.11 24.31 24.31
LATIN AMERICA 8.84 9.58 10.52 11.12 11.38 11.55
BRAZIL 3.92 4.19 5.10 5.20 5.35 5.35
ARGENTINA 0.14 0.17 0.22 0.25 0.25 0.25
MEXICO 2.48 2.41 2.22 2.42 2.49 2.51
EUROPEAN UNION 22.24 22.68 24.42 23.62 23.62 23.56
FRANCE 3.81 4.03 4.30 3.79 3.89 3.86
GERMANY 3.49 3.37 3.37 3.27 3.22 3.22
NETHERLANDS 2.51 2.52 3.11 2.94 3.08 3.08
ITALY 3.15 3.16 3.24 3.20 3.27 3.27
SPAIN 3.32 3.30 3.50 3.51 3.37 3.34
OTHER W EUROPE 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
FSU-12 1.91 1.00 0.99 0.59 0.69 0.69
EASTERN EUROPE 1.98 1.93 2.30 2.26 2.25 2.25
POLAND 0.54 0.55 0.71 0.60 0.64 0.64
ASIA & OCEANIA 14.13 16.92 17.88 20.23 21.34 21.75
JAPAN 3.79 3.73 3.70 3.55 3.60 3.60
CHINA 3.27 5.11 5.33 6.87 7.88 8.24
TAIWAN 1.94 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.78 1.80
KOREA, REP OF 1.45 1.49 1.77 1.84 1.84 1.84
MID-EAST/N AFR 2.85 3.39 3.96 4.33 4.15 4.23
OTHER 1.93 2.01 2.30 2.36 2.35 2.35
TOTAL 76.05 80.60 86.63 88.80 90.27 90.87
ENDING STOCKS
UNITED STATES 0.19 0.14 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.18
BRAZIL 0.60 0.61 0.69 0.64 0.55 0.63
ARGENTINA 0.55 0.70 0.77 0.68 0.64 0.72
OTHER 2.46 2.27 2.67 2.66 2.58 2.58
TOTAL 3.80 3.71 4.33 4.19 3.95 4.11
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 8
SOYBEAN OIL: WORLD SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(MILLION METRIC TONS)
PRELIM JAN. FEB.
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1996/97
PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES 6.25 6.33 7.08 6.91 6.94 6.96
LATIN AMERICA 5.12 5.81 6.10 6.68 6.76 6.80
BRAZIL 2.91 3.47 3.80 4.02 3.99 4.00
ARGENTINA 1.44 1.52 1.50 1.75 1.80 1.82
MEXICO 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.45 0.47 0.47
EUROPEAN UNION 2.54 2.24 2.58 2.42 2.45 2.45
OTHER W EUROPE 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
FSU-12 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.06
EASTERN EUROPE 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10
ASIA 2.70 3.26 3.25 3.44 3.40 3.40
JAPAN 0.69 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67
CHINA 0.67 1.14 1.21 1.15 1.19 1.19
TAIWAN 0.42 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.40
OTHER 0.39 0.42 0.50 0.53 0.55 0.55
TOTAL 17.20 18.25 19.71 20.18 20.31 20.39
EXPORTS
UNITED STATES 0.64 0.69 1.22 0.45 0.79 0.84
BRAZIL 0.69 1.35 1.55 1.60 1.50 1.50
ARGENTINA 1.45 1.45 1.50 1.65 1.70 1.70
EUROPEAN UNION 1.06 0.91 1.29 1.14 1.13 1.12
OTHER 0.37 0.46 0.52 0.58 0.56 0.56
TOTAL 4.21 4.85 6.08 5.42 5.68 5.72
IMPORTS
UNITED STATES 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05
EUROPEAN UNION 0.53 0.50 0.63 0.63 0.61 0.61
FSU-12 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.08
EASTERN EUROPE 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
CHINA 0.10 0.64 1.70 1.45 1.50 1.55
INDIA 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.11
PAKISTAN 0.25 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16
MID-EAST/N AFR 1.17 1.39 1.34 1.02 1.14 1.19
IRAN 0.43 0.49 0.50 0.34 0.38 0.38
MOROCCO 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.13 0.18
TURKEY 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15
TUNISIA 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.10
LATIN AMERICA 0.78 0.93 0.99 0.81 0.84 0.85
BRAZIL 0.14 0.24 0.18 0.10 0.10 0.10
MEXICO 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07
CHILE 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
PERU 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.14
COLOMBIA 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11
OTHER 0.83 0.83 1.05 0.92 0.99 0.98
TOTAL 3.90 4.73 6.10 5.23 5.59 5.70
CONSUMPTION
UNITED STATES 5.92 5.87 5.86 6.11 6.19 6.19
LATIN AMERICA 3.62 3.73 3.97 3.99 4.13 4.14
BRAZIL 2.28 2.32 2.47 2.53 2.60 2.60
ARGENTINA 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
MEXICO 0.53 0.52 0.45 0.49 0.51 0.52
EUROPEAN UNION 2.00 1.85 1.92 1.96 1.98 1.96
OTHER W EUROPE 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
FSU-12 0.15 0.16 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.14
EASTERN EUROPE 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.21
ASIA 3.42 4.49 5.22 5.51 5.56 5.61
JAPAN 0.69 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.68 0.68
CHINA 0.77 1.76 2.53 2.61 2.62 2.70
TAIWAN 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.39
KOREA, REP OF 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25
INDIA 0.56 0.71 0.56 0.76 0.76 0.74
PAKISTAN 0.28 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.17
BANGLADESH 0.31 0.32 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.37
MID-EAST/N AFR 1.30 1.55 1.53 1.26 1.36 1.41
IRAN 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.36 0.40 0.40
MOROCCO 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.19
TURKEY 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.19
OTHER 0.51 0.50 0.59 0.58 0.63 0.63
TOTAL 17.22 18.41 19.44 19.77 20.28 20.38
ENDING STOCKS
UNITED STATES 0.71 0.50 0.52 0.91 0.91 0.89
BRAZIL 0.32 0.35 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.31
ARGENTINA 0.21 0.21 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.18
OTHER 0.82 0.71 1.10 0.92 0.89 0.89
TOTAL 2.05 1.77 2.05 2.28 2.25 2.27
NOTE: TOTALS MAY NOT ADD DUE TO ROUNDING.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 9
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS: WORLD TRADE
(1000 METRIC TONS)
LOCAL MKTG YEARS
SOYBEANS SOYBEAN MEAL SOYBEAN OIL
1995/96 1996/97 1995/96 1996/97 1995/96 1996/97
EXPORTERS
UNITED STATES 1/ 23,165 24,630 5,445 6,033 450 839
BRAZIL 3,203 4,200 11,673 11,400 1,600 1,500
ARGENTINA 2,200 2,500 8,000 8,200 1,650 1,700
EUROPEAN UNION 351 317 3,555 3,435 1,138 1,119
SPAIN 0 0 30 40 178 180
PORTUGAL 4 4 25 20 55 54
PARAGUAY 1,500 1,550 508 587 124 135
OTHER 1,324 1,209 3,383 3,212 458 426
WORLD TOTAL 31,743 34,406 32,564 32,867 5,420 5,719
SELECTED IMPORTERS
EUROPEAN UNION 14,219 14,495 16,415 16,115 627 614
GERMANY 2,850 3,000 1,900 1,750 150 160
NETHERLANDS 4,370 4,350 1,700 1,700 29 28
SPAIN 2,335 2,435 1,969 1,850 5 8
ITALY 1,160 1,110 1,900 1,900 20 15
BEL-LUX 1,213 1,212 1,050 1,000 62 60
PORTUGAL 650 620 160 190 6 7
FRANCE 590 750 3,340 3,400 59 70
U.K. 639 615 1,650 1,700 165 132
DENMARK 70 73 1,568 1,460 40 40
OTHER W EUROPE 380 375 63 48 7 7
FSU-12 70 60 350 350 50 80
RUSSIA 50 40 100 100 25 39
UKRAINE 20 20 250 250 25 38
EASTERN EUROPE 302 332 1,915 1,880 111 114
POLAND 10 60 580 600 80 82
HUNGARY 10 10 470 450 0 0
ASIA 11,720 12,774 6,132 7,540 2,251 2,456
JAPAN 4,800 4,860 700 750 10 7
TAIWAN 2,627 2,574 28 30 4 2
KOREA, REP OF 1,400 1,400 1,000 900 35 35
INDONESIA 700 700 950 1,025 9 10
PHILIPPINES 130 140 900 965 16 18
INDIA 0 0 0 0 60 110
PAKISTAN 25 25 70 70 150 160
MID-EAST/N AFR 1,005 1,068 3,340 3,244 1,016 1,193
ISRAEL 525 525 38 38 25 25
IRAN 0 0 560 540 340 380
EGYPT 88 110 575 520 105 125
IRAQ 0 0 60 60 3 3
MOROCCO 60 60 52 80 116 180
TUNISIA 0 0 170 190 90 100
ALGERIA 0 0 370 350 110 120
TURKEY 180 220 275 250 135 150
LATIN AMERICA 4,814 4,532 2,568 2,728 855 876
MEXICO 2,653 2,650 300 300 50 70
VENEZUELA 285 295 530 550 100 100
CANADA 70 100 716 650 43 30
OTHER 426 431 761 724 321 356
WORLD TOTAL 32,506 34,167 32,260 33,279 5,231 5,696
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 10
VEGETABLE OIL PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND IMPORTS
FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1,000 METRIC TONS
IMPORT PRELIM FORCST
MARKETING 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
YEAR
INDIA
TOTAL PROD MY 5,209 5,278 5,430 5,701 5,772
TOTAL CONSUM MY 5,308 5,582 6,150 6,880 7,121
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 89 264 720 1,199 1,349
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 30 200 520 950 950
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 42 41 60 60 110
RAPESEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 11 15 20 40 40
FSU-12
TOTAL PROD MY 2,462 2,189 1,920 2,574 2,383
TOTAL CONSUM MY 2,798 2,488 2,262 2,707 2,646
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 730 720 752 831 705
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 100 83 122 133 133
SUNFLOWERSEED OIL (SEP-AUG) 220 248 316 380 254
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 68 80 46 50 80
PAKISTAN
TOTAL PROD MY 404 324 343 435 378
TOTAL CONSUM MY 1,591 1,607 1,706 1,740 1,770
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 1,141 1,236 1,381 1,304 1,389
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 884 1,060 1,210 1,150 1,225
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 253 172 167 150 160
EGYPT
TOTAL PROD MY 100 123 101 94 123
TOTAL CONSUM MY 726 939 1,000 895 939
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 626 816 899 801 816
SUNSEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 200 180 280 200 205
COTTONSEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 60 82 90 90 80
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 325 420 370 390 390
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 25 117 127 105 125
IRAN
TOTAL PROD MY 32 38 51 54 55
TOTAL CONSUM MY 579 697 1,106 875 941
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 547 659 1,055 821 886
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 48 113 54 50 50
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 433 494 500 340 380
SUNSEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 65 51 500 430 455
ALGERIA
TOTAL PROD MY 24 18 14 16 16
TOTAL CONSUM MY 414 472 522 502 524
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 390 454 508 486 508
SUNSEED OIL (JAN-DEC) 115 90 170 170 170
RAPESEED OIL (JAN-DEC) 68 40 50 60 62
MOROCCO
TOTAL PROD MY 93 75 112 83 81
TOTAL CONSUM MY 328 307 340 334 312
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 237 238 233 254 239
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 169 178 147 116 180
RAPESEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 60 51 77 129 50
NIGERIA
TOTAL PROD MY 835 774 785 766 770
TOTAL CONSUM MY 965 912 943 966 920
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 120 128 158 180 150
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 100 100 130 160 150
RAPESEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 10 20 20 20 0
VENEZUELA
TOTAL PROD MY 101 141 161 180 180
TOTAL CONSUM MY 376 433 505 438 428
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 270 292 336 257 247
SUNSEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 130 145 145 145 135
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 125 138 175 100 100
COTTONSEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 4 2 3 1 1
CHINA
TOTAL PROD MY 4,813 5,264 5,964 6,653 6,150
TOTAL CONSUM MY 5,748 7,287 9,521 9,158 9,264
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 1,115 2,487 4,431 2,811 3,457
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 800 1,420 1,667 1,006 1,500
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 100 640 1,702 1,445 1,550
RAPESEED OIL (OCT-SEP) 153 360 944 303 350
BANGLADESH
TOTAL PROD MY 109 112 109 113 113
TOTAL CONSUM MY 529 687 759 706 713
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 401 575 660 555 600
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP) 285 285 425 325 370
PALM OIL (OCT-SEP) 86 260 200 200 200
TOTAL OF SELECTED
IMPORTERS
TOTAL PROD MY 14,182 14,336 14,990 16,669 16,021
TOTAL CONSUM MY 19,362 21,411 24,814 25,201 25,578
TOTAL IMPORTS MY 5,666 7,869 11,133 9,499 10,346
PALM OIL MY 2,490 3,789 4,421 4,197 4,766
SOYBEAN OIL MY 1,600 2,342 3,499 2,801 3,175
SUNSEED OIL MY 730 715 1,481 1,425 1,419
RAPESEED OIL MY 394 571 1,144 615 515
NOTE: PRODUCTION IS OIL PROCESSED FROM DOMESTIC AND/OR
IMPORTED OILSEEDS, PLUS OIL FROM OTHER DOMESTIC
SOURCES SUCH AS PALM OIL AND FISH OIL. ANIMAL FATS
ARE NOT INCLUDED. CONSUMPTION DATA MAY INCLUDE
YEAR-TO-YEAR ADJUSTMENTS IN CASES WHERE STOCK
DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE OR RELIABLE.
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 11
U.S.: OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
LOCAL MARKETING YEARS
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
AREA PROD IMP EXP CRUSH END
HA STK
MAJOR OILSEEDS
1987/88(87) 28,557 60,815 48 22,465 36,215 9,134
1988/89(88) 29,507 50,295 144 14,790 33,160 6,020
1989/90(89) 29,376 59,257 195 17,525 34,853 7,194
1990/91(90) 29,130 60,550 214 15,640 36,362 9,959
1991/92(91) 30,686 64,316 174 19,419 39,250 8,742
1992/93(92) 29,624 68,442 116 21,714 39,460 8,972
1993/94(93) 30,149 59,497 551 16,560 39,218 6,678
1994/95(94) 32,203 79,721 497 23,808 43,994 10,273
1995/96(95) 33,568 69,095 464 23,929 42,562 6,030
1996/97(96) 32,570 74,932 441 25,303 43,414 4,967
MAJOR PROTEIN MEALS
1987/88(87) - 27,845 332 6,347 - 192
1988/89(88) - 24,993 389 5,016 - 249
1989/90(89) - 27,138 403 4,923 - 349
1990/91(90) - 27,948 477 5,124 - 358
1991/92(91) - 29,666 702 6,572 - 263
1992/93(92) - 29,886 981 5,927 - 223
1993/94(93) - 30,154 1,024 5,133 - 200
1994/95(94) - 33,199 1,047 6,379 - 262
1995/96(95) - 32,269 1,237 5,702 - 267
1996/97(96) - 32,916 1,268 6,262 - 240
MAJOR VEGETABLE AND MARINE OILS
1987/88(87) - 6,996 1,196 1,460 - 1,334
1988/89(88) - 6,367 1,033 1,278 - 1,035
1989/90(89) - 6,862 1,071 1,072 - 858
1990/91(90) - 7,083 1,111 789 - 1,098
1991/92(91) - 7,777 1,139 1,266 - 1,280
1992/93(92) - 7,342 1,338 1,112 - 990
1993/94(93) - 7,472 1,355 1,162 - 774
1994/95(94) - 8,576 1,304 2,018 - 739
1995/96(95) - 8,233 1,289 1,047 - 1,198
1996/97(96) - 8,199 1,401 1,400 - 1,167
NOTE: MAJOR OILSEEDS INCLUDE COTTON, PEANUTS, RAPESEED, SOYBEAN
AND SUNFLOWERSEED. MAJOR MEALS INCLUDE COPRA, COTTON, FISH
PEANUT, RAPESEED, SOYBEAN, AND SUNFLOWERSEED. MAJOR
VEGETABLE AND FISH OILS INCLUDE COCONUT, COTTONSEED, FISH,
OLIVE, PALM, PALM KERNEL, PEANUT, RAPESEED, SOYBEAN, AND
SUNFLOWERSEED
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTS,
OFFICIAL STATISTICS, USDA ESTIMATES
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 12
U.S.: SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
LOCAL MARKETING YEARS
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
AREA PROD IMP EXP CRUSH END
HA STK
SOYBEAN (SEP-AUG)
1987/88(87) 23,137 52,736 34 21,870 31,957 8,232
1988/89(88) 23,218 42,152 98 14,355 28,794 4,954
1989/90(89) 24,094 52,354 68 16,933 31,189 6,508
1990/91(90) 22,870 52,416 95 15,161 32,305 8,955
1991/92(91) 23,477 54,065 94 18,614 34,128 7,578
1992/93(92) 23,566 59,612 56 20,944 34,808 7,955
1993/94(93) 23,208 50,919 175 16,032 34,716 5,691
1994/95(94) 24,629 68,493 136 22,810 38,242 9,112
1995/96(95) 24,938 59,243 121 23,165 37,282 4,992
1996/97(96) 25,661 64,837 121 24,630 38,374 3,803
SOYBEAN MEAL (OCT-SEP)
1987/88(87) - 25,455 0 6,191 - 139
1988/89(88) - 22,628 16 4,937 - 157
1989/90(89) - 25,146 33 4,825 - 289
1990/91(90) - 25,696 41 4,962 - 259
1991/92(91) - 27,062 61 6,301 - 209
1992/93(92) - 27,546 84 5,653 - 185
1993/94(93) - 27,682 63 4,859 - 136
1994/95(94) - 30,182 58 6,094 - 203
1995/96(95) - 29,495 68 5,445 - 208
1996/97(96) - 30,247 73 6,033 - 181
SOYBEAN OIL (OCT-SEP)
1987/88(87) - 5,885 88 850 - 949
1988/89(88) - 5,324 62 754 - 778
1989/90(89) - 5,898 10 614 - 592
1990/91(90) - 6,082 8 354 - 810
1991/92(91) - 6,507 0 747 - 1,016
1992/93(92) - 6,250 5 644 - 705
1993/94(93) - 6,328 31 694 - 500
1994/95(94) - 7,082 8 1,216 - 516
1995/96(95) - 6,911 43 450 - 914
1996/97(96) - 6,962 48 839 - 893
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTS,
OFFICIAL STATISTICS, USDA ESTIMATES
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 13
BRAZIL: SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
LOCAL MARKETING YEARS
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
AREA PROD IMP EXP CRUSH END
HA STK
SOYBEANS (FEB-JAN)
1988/89(87) 10,550 18,020 62 3,020 13,676 299
1989/90(88) 12,150 23,600 63 5,080 16,189 1,325
1990/91(89) 11,550 20,340 0 4,220 15,435 800
1991/92(90) 9,750 15,750 350 1,645 13,057 998
1992/93(91) 9,700 19,300 430 3,826 14,721 831
1993/94(92) 10,625 22,500 0 4,184 16,765 832
1994/95(93) 11,440 24,700 900 5,395 18,736 651
1995/96(94) 11,680 25,900 900 3,492 21,599 660
1996/97(95) 10,950 23,400 1,300 3,400 19,800 635
1997/98(96) 12,000 26,500 1,000 4,000 21,500 910
SOYBEAN MEAL (FEB-JAN)
1988/89(87) - 10,710 0 8,477 - 298
1989/90(88) - 12,625 0 9,577 - 437
1990/91(89) - 12,082 0 8,994 - 686
1991/92(90) - 10,250 0 7,414 - 397
1992/93(91) - 11,556 0 8,136 - 467
1993/94(92) - 13,177 0 9,301 - 543
1994/95(93) - 14,726 0 10,419 - 650
1995/96(94) - 16,977 0 11,646 - 881
1996/97(95) - 15,563 0 10,700 - 444
1997/98(96) - 16,899 0 11,350 - 493
SOYBEAN OIL (FEB-JAN)
1988/89(87) - 2,576 61 661 - 134
1989/90(88) - 3,050 15 864 - 115
1990/91(89) - 2,908 12 887 - 137
1991/92(90) - 2,450 45 410 - 149
1992/93(91) - 2,760 80 710 - 123
1993/94(92) - 3,154 120 771 - 284
1994/95(93) - 3,522 310 1,556 - 160
1995/96(94) - 4,061 162 1,747 - 187
1996/97(95) - 3,722 150 1,400 - 184
1997/98(96) - 4,042 130 1,610 - 196
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTS,
OFFICIAL STATISTICS, USDA ESTIMATES
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 14
ARGENTINA: SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
LOCAL MARKETING YEARS
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
AREA PROD IMP EXP CRUSH END
HA STK
SOYBEANS (APR-MAR)
1988/89(87) 4,260 9,700 0 2,100 6,969 752
1989/90(88) 4,000 6,500 0 516 5,413 803
1990/91(89) 4,950 10,750 0 3,511 6,566 1,035
1991/92(90) 4,750 11,500 0 4,127 7,400 578
1992/93(91) 4,800 11,150 0 3,050 7,962 298
1993/94(92) 4,900 11,350 0 2,273 8,687 264
1994/95(93) 5,400 12,400 0 2,957 8,779 457
1995/96(94) 5,700 12,650 0 2,608 9,369 660
1996/97(95) 5,980 12,640 0 2,650 9,850 344
1997/98(96) 6,200 13,500 0 2,500 10,300 569
SOYBEAN MEAL (APR-MAR)
1988/89(87) - 5,582 0 5,350 - 194
1989/90(88) - 4,368 0 4,350 - 164
1990/91(89) - 5,324 0 4,860 - 528
1991/92(90) - 6,008 0 6,294 - 142
1992/93(91) - 6,449 0 6,330 - 121
1993/94(92) - 7,019 0 6,835 - 125
1994/95(93) - 7,093 0 6,881 - 137
1995/96(94) - 7,570 0 7,164 - 293
1996/97(95) - 7,959 0 7,760 - 232
1997/98(96) - 8,322 0 8,030 - 254
SOYBEAN OIL (APR-MAR)
1988/89(87) - 1,199 0 1,030 - 68
1989/90(88) - 927 0 868 - 77
1990/91(89) - 1,124 0 1,006 - 120
1991/92(90) - 1,267 0 1,266 - 46
1992/93(91) - 1,359 0 1,295 - 37
1993/94(92) - 1,503 0 1,409 - 55
1994/95(93) - 1,517 0 1,442 - 52
1995/96(94) - 1,621 0 1,562 - 31
1996/97(95) - 1,694 0 1,600 - 42
1997/98(96) - 1,782 0 1,688 - 51
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTS,
OFFICIAL STATISTICS, USDA ESTIMATES
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 15
ARGENTINA: SUNFLOWERSEED AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
LOCAL MARKETING YEARS
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
AREA PROD IMP EXP CRUSH END
HA STK
SUNFLOWERSEED (MAR-FEB)
1988/89(87) 2,058 2,800 0 52 2,549 378
1989/90(88) 2,200 3,200 0 115 3,340 82
1990/91(89) 2,800 3,800 0 372 3,400 70
1991/92(90) 2,300 4,200 0 338 3,747 145
1992/93(91) 2,800 3,800 0 300 3,500 105
1993/94(92) 2,300 3,100 0 200 2,850 105
1994/95(93) 2,070 3,850 0 580 3,240 85
1995/96(94) 2,800 5,900 0 884 4,951 100
1996/97(95) 3,200 5,600 0 800 4,700 130
1997/98(96) 2,900 5,400 0 700 4,640 120
SUNFLOWERSEED MEAL (MAR-FEB)
1988/89(87) - 1,110 0 1,050 - 97
1989/90(88) - 1,435 0 1,280 - 148
1990/91(89) - 1,470 0 1,403 - 148
1991/92(90) - 1,550 0 1,475 - 148
1992/93(91) - 1,520 0 1,375 - 143
1993/94(92) - 1,140 0 1,057 - 151
1994/95(93) - 1,361 0 1,300 - 137
1995/96(94) - 2,079 0 1,996 - 140
1996/97(95) - 1,974 0 1,849 - 180
1997/98(96) - 1,949 0 1,815 - 164
SUNFLOWERSEED OIL (MAR-FEB)
1988/89(87) - 1,033 0 699 - 63
1989/90(88) - 1,365 0 925 - 137
1990/91(89) - 1,380 0 1,162 - 137
1991/92(90) - 1,380 0 1,075 - 124
1992/93(91) - 1,350 0 1,050 - 111
1993/94(92) - 1,092 0 775 - 90
1994/95(93) - 1,266 0 920 - 73
1995/96(94) - 1,934 0 1,494 - 130
1996/97(95) - 1,836 0 1,419 - 149
1997/98(96) - 1,812 0 1,400 - 131
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTS,
OFFICIAL STATISTICS, USDA ESTIMATES
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 16
EUROPEAN UNION:
OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
PRELIM FORECAST
OILSEED PRODUCTION
RAPESEED 6,555 6,594 6,985 8,297 7,295
SUNFLOWERSEED 4,056 3,506 4,026 3,234 3,939
SOYBEANS 1,274 807 1,029 939 1,070
OTHER 540 594 647 718 681
TOTAL 12,425 11,501 12,687 13,188 12,985
PROTEIN MEAL CONSUMPTION 1/
SOYBEAN 22,244 22,683 24,424 23,615 23,563
SUNFLOWERSEED 3,503 3,761 4,284 4,203 4,133
RAPESEED 4,322 4,345 5,070 4,957 4,904
CORN GLUTEN FEED/M 6,550 6,325 6,455 6,450 6,500
OTHER 4,734 4,880 4,770 4,794 4,830
TOTAL 3/ 34,803 35,669 38,548 37,569 37,430
TOTAL SME 4/ 36,545 37,341 39,987 38,989 38,796
OIL CONSUMPTION 1/
SOYBEAN 1,997 1,848 1,920 1,955 1,964
OLIVE 1,328 1,343 1,344 1,306 1,378
SUNFLOWERSEED 1,803 1,746 1,818 1,837 1,839
RAPESEED 1,718 1,666 2,017 2,117 2,108
OTHER 3,035 3,277 3,369 3,308 3,280
TOTAL 9,881 9,880 10,468 10,523 10,569
IMPORTS(EX.INTRA TRADE) 5/ 6/
SOYBEANS 14,900 12,870 15,594 13,895 14,235
SOYBEAN MEAL 13,120 13,877 14,053 13,933 13,757
SUNFLOWERSEED 812 1,457 1,665 1,945 1,630
EXPORTS(EX.INTRA TRADE) 5/ 6/
SOYBEAN MEAL 1,091 571 715 677 664
SOYBEAN OIL 516 368 701 581 591
RAPESEED OIL 570 906 900 795 683
1/ AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERENT MARKETING YEARS
2/ BASED ON EC IMPORT DATA ONLY
3/ CORN GLUTEN FEED/MEAL NOT INCLUDED
4/ 44-PERCENT SOYBEAN MEAL EQUIVALENT, INCLUDING CORN GLUTEN FEED/MEAL.
5/ OCTOBER-SEPTEMBER YEARS
6/ DOES NOT INCLUDE THE STATISTICS FROM THE FORMER GER DEM REP
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTSFOREIGN AGRICULTURE SERVICE
OFFICIAL STATISTICS COTTON, OILSEEDS, TOBACCO
USDA ESTIMATES and SEEDS DIVISION
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 17
RUSSIA:
OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
PRELIM FORECAST
OILSEED PRODUCTION
RAPESEED 165 96 122 125 130
SOYBEANS 505 497 421 290 350
SUNFLOWERSEED 3,073 2,765 2,553 4,200 2,800
TOTAL 3,743 3,358 3,096 4,615 3,280
PROTEIN MEAL CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 1,435 540 450 290 381
SUNFLOWERSEED 1,106 765 635 865 855
RAPESEED 46 30 30 30 25
FISH 482 485 488 488 487
OTHER 5 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 1/ 3,074 1,820 1,603 1,673 1,748
TOTAL SME 2/ 3,214 1,984 1,776 1,833 1,910
OIL CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 90 100 60 62 84
COTTONSEED 127 108 120 100 105
SUNFLOWERSEED 970 830 830 1,026 1,030
RAPESEED 72 56 30 45 15
FISH 61 61 61 61 61
OTHER 103 54 59 63 63
TOTAL 1/ 1,423 1,209 1,160 1,357 1,358
IMPORTS 3/
SOYBEANS 167 68 35 50 40
SOYBEAN MEAL 1,095 200 205 100 100
SUNFLOWERSEED OIL 105 146 205 270 150
COTTONSEED OIL 127 108 120 100 105
EXPORTS 3/
SUNFLOWERSEED 76 450 533 1,050 670
SOYBEANS 5 17 60 50 60
SUNFLOWERSEED OIL 10 40 10 15 20
FISHMEAL 43 43 43 43 43
FISH OIL 28 28 28 28 28
1/ AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERENT MARKETING YEARS
2/ 44-PERCENT SOYBEAN MEAL EQUIVALENT
3/ ASSORTED MARKETING YEARS
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTSFOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERV
OFFICIAL STATISTICS COTTON, OILSEEDS, TOBACCO
USDA ESTIMATES and SEEDS DIVISION
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
TABLE 18
CHINA
OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
(1,000 METRIC TONS)
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
PRELIM FORECAST
OILSEED PRODUCTION
COTTONSEED 7,660 6,658 7,704 8,440 6,860
PEANUTS 5,953 8,420 9,682 10,200 9,500
RAPESEED 7,653 6,940 7,492 9,777 8,800
SOYBEANS 10,300 15,310 16,000 13,500 12,500
SUNFLOWERSEED 1,472 1,282 1,370 1,270 1,360
TOTAL 33,038 38,610 42,248 43,187 39,020
PROTEIN MEAL CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 3,274 5,110 5,329 6,867 8,237
COTTONSEED 1,966 2,088 2,513 2,854 2,130
RAPESEED 3,375 3,396 4,236 5,145 4,610
PEANUT 1,116 1,580 2,127 2,277 2,187
OTHER 1,145 1,032 1,300 1,220 1,297
TOTAL 1/ 10,876 13,206 15,505 18,363 18,461
TOTAL SME 2/ 9,901 12,271 14,417 16,967 17,354
OIL CONSUMPTION
SOYBEAN 770 1,763 2,527 2,611 2,698
COTTONSEED 869 775 897 995 782
PALM 700 1,136 1,437 806 1,300
RAPESEED 2,363 2,314 2,997 3,088 2,864
PEANUT 769 1,059 1,359 1,429 1,373
OTHER 277 240 304 229 247
TOTAL 1/ 5,748 7,287 9,521 9,158 9,264
IMPORTS 3/
SOYBEANS 150 125 155 795 1,700
RAPESEED 5 0 235 0 0
FISHMEAL 424 434 668 660 625
PALM OIL 800 1,420 1,667 1,006 1,500
SOYBEAN OIL 100 640 1,702 1,445 1,550
RAPESEED OIL 153 360 944 303 350
EXPORTS 3/
SOYBEANS 300 1,100 394 222 200
PEANUTS 300 472 474 457 400
SOYBEAN MEAL 400 1,050 1,275 100 100
COTTONSEED MEAL 950 525 500 490 500
RAPESEED MEAL 898 450 86 307 300
PALM OIL 100 284 230 200 200
PEANUT OIL 13 66 13 6 6
RAPESEED OIL 64 93 242 119 100
1/ AN AGGREGATE OF DIFFERENT MARKETING YEARS
2/ 44-PERCENT SOYBEAN MEAL EQUIVALENT
3/ ASSORTED MARKETING YEARS
SOURCE: COUNSELOR AND ATTACHE REPORTSFOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERV
OFFICIAL STATISTICS COTTON, OILSEEDS, TOBACCO
USDA ESTIMATES and SEEDS DIVISION
DATE: FEBRUARY 1997
|
|