World coffee production in 2000/2001 is forecast at a record 108.7 million bags (60 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), nearly 2 percent above the previous season, and slightly above the previous record set in 1998/99.
Major upward production changes from last season, in 60 kilogram bags, occurred in the following countries: Colombia, up 2.0 million bags; and Brazil, up 1.1 million bags. The Central American countries are forecast to produce 674,000 fewer bags in 2000/2001, down 5 percent from last year. Other countries with relatively large downward projections from last season include Cote d'Ivoire, down 967, 000 bags; and Thailand, down 360,000 bags. Arabica production is forecast at 69.5 million bags, up nearly 1 percent from 1999/2000 and robusta output is forecast at 39.1 million, up nearly 4 percent from last season.
World exports of coffee in 2000/2001 are forecast down only slightly to 83.5 million bags. Although Brazil's coffee exports are forecast to decline again in 2000/2001, other countries are forecast to compensate. Some key upward changes in year-to-year exports include: Colombia, up 600,00 bags; India, up 400,000 bags; Uganda, up 330,000 bags; Madagascar, up 228,000 bags; Guatemala, up 110,000 bags; Mexico, up 100,000 bags; Zaire, up 100,000 bags; and Papua-New Guinea, up 100,000 bags.
The 2000/2001 coffee production forecast for Brazil remains unchanged from the first forecast made March 10, 2000, at 28.1 million bags (BR0005). The current forecast is up 4 percent from last season, but down 21 percent from the exceptional crop of 1998/99. Arabica coffee production is forecast at 21.8 million bags, while robusta output is forecast at a record 6.3 million bags.
The forecast for area planted to coffee is 2.5 million hectares up about 2 percent from last year, and harvested area, forecast at 2.1 million hectares, is also up 2 percent. The coffee tree population is forecast at 5.4 billion trees, up nearly 10 percent from last season and consists of 4.0 billion bearing trees and 1.4 billion non-bearing trees.
The harvest season has already begun, especially for the robusta-producing regions in Espirito Santo. The start of harvest in arabica areas is likely to be delayed 10-20 days due to the severe drought conditions that occurred in October and November 1999. The 2000/2001 crop is expected to yield a good quality product since fruit maturation is relatively uniform from two major blooms.
Total coffee exports from Brazil in 2000/2001 are forecast to decline by nearly 8 percent from 1999/2000, mainly as a result of lower supplies. Brazil's exports of coffee in 2000/2001 are forecast at 16.9 million bags, 15.0 million bags of green coffee and 1.9 million bags of soluble coffee. Even accounting for the lower level of exports, ending stocks for 2000/2001 are forecast to decline even further to 5.45 million bags, down from 7.36 million bags estimated for 1999/2000.
Brazil's Coffee Production
(Million 60-kilogram bags)
|Sao Paulo 1/||3.50||3.00||4.20||3.50||2.50|
Brazil continues to offer government-owned stocks through its auction system.
|Brazil: Auction of Government-Owned Coffee Stocks|
|Date of Auction||Quantity Offered||Quantity Sold||Price Range|
|--------60-kilogram bags--------||Brazil reais/bag|
Colombia's 2000/2001 coffee production forecast is 12.0 million bags, 20 percent above last season's harvest and 10 percent more than produced in the 1998/99 season. The reason for the projected increase is due to the coffee crop entering an on-year cycle and additional trees coming into production. The area planted to coffee in 2000/2001 is forecast at 805,000 hectares, down nearly 4 percent from last season while the area harvested is projected at 650,000 hectares, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Coffee production has been on a downward trend since 1991/92, when it reached a record 18 million bags. Adverse weather and low world coffee prices have reduced profits to coffee farmers. Colombia's banks have become reluctant to lend money to marginal producers who are now shifting to other crops.
Colombia produces coffee throughout the year, but there are two main coffee production cycles. The dominant harvest occurs during the October-January period and accounts for 45 percent of annual production. The minor crop is harvested May-July and represents an additional 25 percent of annual production. The remaining 30 percent of national production is harvested during the remaining five months of the year.
With the increased production, Colombia is forecast to increase exports during 2000/2001 to 10.2 million bags, a rise of 600,000 bags from the previous year. This level of exports will allow Colombia to stock more coffee. Coffee stocks are forecast at 2.0 million bags at the end of 2000/2001, up from the low levels estimated for 1999/2000 of 1.8 million bags.
Coffee production in Vietnam in 2000/2001 is forecast at a record 8.0 million bags, unchanged from last season's revised outturn, but up 20 percent from 1998/99. Robusta coffee area continues to expand. Harvested area in 2000/2001 is forecast to increase 3 percent. Efforts to expand the area planted to arabica coffee have met with limited success, far below the target of 100,000 hectares. Although coffee prices have fallen dramatically, careful attention to cultural practices in 1999/2000 allowed for the increase in production. However, for 2000/2001, depressed prices are likely to reduce the intensity of farmers' cultivation efforts which is expected to lower yields.
Stable production during 2000/2001 will allow Vietnam's exports to remain at the previous year's estimated level of 7.5 million bags. However, this represents an increase of 12 percent over the 1998/99 level.
Coffee production in 2000/2001 is forecast to increase slightly to 7.3 million bags, up 1 percent from last season. The expected increase is the result of young trees beginning to bear fruit. Harvested area has not changed since 1997/98.
Coffee growers have been reluctant to expand production, resulting in stable output and average to low yield and quality. Investment by growers to expand area is not feasible at this time as interest rates are still high, about 20 percent depending on the institution. The weak international price for robusta beans reduces the motivation to increase production and/or improve management practices.
Mexico's coffee production in 2000/2001 is forecast at 5.3 million bags, 2 percent above last year's estimate, but 2 percent below the record 5.4 million bags harvested in 1995/96. Area planted to coffee is forecast to remain unchanged from the previous year, but at a level 4 percent above the 1998/99 estimate due to government assistance programs to increase production and exports to satisfy international demand.
With the 100,000-bag increase in production during 2000/2001, exports will expand by the same amount. Mexico's coffee exports are forecast at 4.3 million bags, up 100,000 bags, or 2 percent, over the 1999/2000 level. Of the total, bean exports are expected to total 4.1 million bags, roasted and ground exports are forecast at 20,000 bags, and soluble exports are forecast at 180,000 bags.
India's 2000/2001 production of coffee is forecast at a record 4.9 million bags, up nearly 2 percent from last year. The expected increase is attributed to expanded area planted and harvested, and an increase in the number of bearing trees. Favorable weather and timely rains are expected to contribute to this record coffee crop in 2000/2001, for a total of 1.9 million bags of arabica and 3.1 million bags robusta. With the withdrawal of the Coffee Board's monopoly status in 1996, followed by strong international prices in 1997 and 1998, India's production has increased by nearly 45 percent since 1996/97.
Total supply of coffee in India during 2000/2001 is forecast to expand by nearly 1.0 million bags. As a result, exports of coffee during 2000/2001 are forecast up 400,000 bags from the previous year's level of 3.1 million bags.
Coffee production in 2000/2001 is forecast at 4.3 million bags, down 18 percent, or 967,000 bags, from last season. The reason for the sharp decline is due to poor crop maintenance and harvest practices in the 1999/2000 crop and an off year in the coffee crop cycle. However, the fall in output is tempered because of good rainfall and the entry into production of young, hybrid trees. Many coffee seedlings planted between 1994 and 1996 are also entering production and may contribute to the expected increased production with their high yields.
A labor shortage developed during 1999/2000 when the number of harvesters proved insufficient to harvest the large crop. The harvesters resorted to stripping coffee cherries from branches instead of picking the trees. This method of harvesting destroys the nodes on the branches, undermining the full production potential of the trees. Field visits indicate that the current level of cherry formation on trees is generally lower than that of the same period last year.
Cote d'Ivoire's exports of coffee during 2000/2001 are forecast at 3.7 million bags, down 200,000 bags from the estimated 1999/2000 level of 3.9 million bags. Of the total, unroasted coffee accounts for 3.3 million, roasted and ground account for 3,000 bags, and soluble exports account for 430,000 bags.
Coffee production in Guatemala for the 2000/2001 season is forecast at 4.5 million bags, up 3 percent from last year and up nearly 5 percent from the 1998/99 crop. The projected increase in production is due to an increase in outturn from small coffee farmers as a result of technical assistance. In addition, the on-year coffee cycle for the upcoming season is expected to bring very good yields.
The interest in farming organic coffee is increasing in Guatemala due to an increase in demand in the international markets and the bonus given above the regular price for organically-farmed coffee. For the upcoming season, Guatemala's registered organic coffee production is expected to account for 5 percent of total production, the same level as in the previous season. The reason for the slow rate of expansion is because of the time needed for organic certification and the time required for new organic plants to start bearing fruit.
The projected increase in coffee production in Guatemala will mean that there will be higher supplies for the export market. Although domestic consumption of coffee has been increasing, it has not increased at the same level of production. Exports during 2000/2001 are forecast at 4.3 million, up nearly 3 percent from last year.
Honduras's coffee production in 2000/2001 is forecast at 2.9 million bags, down 5 percent from the previous year's estimate. The reason for the decline is due to the off-year cycle of coffee trees in 2000. However, an increase in area planted and harvested, coupled with improved yields, are behind the long-term improvement in outturn during the past ten years. Although output is expected to decline this season, given the expansion in crop area, production is expected to continue its upward trend. Exports of coffee are forecast at 2.55 million bags, down 275,000 bags from last year, based on the lower supplies. In a move to help exporters, the government of Honduras approved on June 1, 2000, legislation allowing duty-free exports of coffee to neighboring countries-such as Guatemala and El Salvador-without the usual $5 a bag export charge. According to press reports, duty-free exports will be permitted until October and are only valid for lower quality coffee.
Costa Rica's coffee production for 2000/2001 is forecast at 2.4 million bags, down 9 percent from last season. The expected decline in this season's output is due to the off-year cycle of the trees coupled with reduced cultural and fertilization practices because of low international coffee prices. Many producers are carrying over high levels of debt from last year and lenders are processing few loans for the upcoming crop. However, with a forecast decrease in ending stocks for 2000/2001, exports are forecast to decline by only 50,000 bags, to 2.3 million bags.
Ecuador's 2000/2001 coffee production is forecast at 1.4 million tons, nearly 8 percent above the revised 1999/2000 crop. Arabica production is forecast to increase nearly 13 percent to 800,000 bags, while the robusta crop is expected to increase slightly to 600,000 bags. Both crops received timely rainfalls during the flowering stage and a continuation of favorable weather since then. Exports of coffee are forecast at 1.1 million bags, up 9 percent from the 1999/2000 level.
Coffee production in Venezuela during 2000/20001 is forecast at 1.05 million bags, up 8 percent from last season's revised estimate. The increase is based on an improvement in weather and the expected continuation of favorable weather. There has been no change in the number of bearing trees during the past few years. Exports of coffee decline and increase following the production changes. Exports during 2000/2001 are forecast at 415,000 tons, up nearly 24 percent from last year.
U.S. coffee stocks at the end of April totaled 4.6 million bags, up 562,000 bags from the March 31, 2000, level. Details follow in 60-kilogram bags:
|Location||March 31||April 30||Difference|