Cocoa

World cocoa bean production for the 1998/99 season (October/September) is forecast at 2.69 million metric tons, virtually unchanged from last season, but 8 percent below the record 2.94 million-ton outturn in 1995/96. The 1998/99 forecast is characterized by increases in projected production for Cote d'Ivoire, Brazil, and Ecuador, but partially offsetting decreases in Ghana, Nigeria, Dominican Republic, and Malaysia.

World grind in 1998/99 is forecast at 2.9 million tons, approximately 2 percent above the preliminary level of 2.8 million tons in 1997/98. Cocoa consumption is expected to continue to grow, but factors such as the Asian situation and the economic problems in Russia will dampen the growth. However, given the production forecast, the deficit in cocoa will grow, even with the modest increase in grind.

Cote d'Ivoire

For Cote d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa bean producer, 1998/99 production is forecast at 1.15 million tons, up 3 percent from last season, but down 6 percent from the 1995/96 record output of 1.22 million. The forecast includes a main crop of 1.0 million tons, slightly above last year and a midcrop of 150,000 tons, about the same as a year ago. The quality of the 1998/99 main crop is expected to be good, and an improvement from last season's drought-affected harvest due to the relatively more favorable weather conditions. The expected increase from last year's outturn is a reflection of rains in March and April that encouraged early flowering. In addition, a relatively high percent of the country's cocoa trees are in the high-yielding age of between 8 and 25 years of age. The weather in 1998 has been irregular with the absence of rains during the main rainfall season of April through June. Further, pod formation and development has suffered due to inadequate rains since May. This was somewhat offset as many trees were able to withstand the adverse weather and currently are maintaining a high level of pod formation. Cold weather is slowing crop development and, in the drier areas, causing flower fall and pod wilt. Although the cold weather reduced the evapotranspiration and maintained soil moisture from the occasional rains, it did not offset the normal rainfall that usually occurs throughout the growing season.

Observations of cocoa trees during field travel by the Agricultural Attache's office in Cote d'Ivoire, indicated a comparatively higher number of pods and flowers on trees in all cocoa producing regions this year than the same period last year. Throughout the country pods remain green and unripe because of the slowdown in pod development resulting from the cold weather, and inadequate rain and sunshine. The harvest of the crop has not yet begun and the past and prevailing weather indicates that it will be a late crop.

The forecast of area planted to cocoa beans at 1.56 million hectares is unchanged from a year ago. Cocoa bean area is expected to remain stagnant because of the limited availability of suitable land. Stringent measures have been undertaken by the government to protect the classified forest for agricultural purposes and is the principal reason for the shortage of cultivable land. Outside the classified forest, cocoa production competes with oil palm, rubber, coffee and food crops for land area. The shortage of cultivable land is creating widespread land litigation between settler cocoa farmers and the indigenous inhabitants which have led to violence and expulsion in some instances. The government plan to modernize the land tenure system to ensure the security of tenure is meeting resistance and is also contributing to the tension between the settlers and indigenous people.

Bean quality for the 1997/98 main crop was average due to the prolonged drought in the greater part of 1997. Bean exports in 1997/98 were classified as 39 percent superior (less than 105 beans per 100 grams), 51 percent standard (105-110 beans per 100 grams) and 10 percent substandard. The quality of the 1997/98 midcrop was poor with small bean size. A major portion of the bean size ranged between 130 and 160 beans per 100 grams.

The minimum producer price for cocoa beans in 1997/98 was 415 CFA F/kg and represents about 40 percent of the world market price. In 1998/99, the government is expected to increase the minimum producer price due to a favorable world market price and the need to reduce price differences with neighboring Ghana to discourage informal exports. The producer price in Ghana is equivalent to 580 CFA F/kg. The informal exports from Cote d'Ivoire to Ghana are estimated at 10,000 to 15,000 tons in 1997/98.

Domestic processing of cocoa beans is estimated at 200,000 tons in 1997/98 and is expected to reach 250,000 MT in 1998/99 due to increased investment in capacity expansion. Domestic processing is mainly for the production of semi-finished products--cocoa cake, paste, butter, chocolate liquor and powder for exports.

Exports are forecast to increase in 1998/99 because of the expected rise in cocoa bean supply and the availability of high quality beans from the main crop to be blended with the large carryover stocks of low quality beans. Cocoa bean exports fell in 1997/98 due to the reduced supply of exportable beans and increased domestic processing. Cocoa and cocoa products accounted for about 36 percent of total export earnings in 1997 compared to 37.2 percent in 1996.

Ghana

In Ghana, the forecast for 1998/99 of 360,000 tons is 14 percent less than the revised previous season's output. The 1998/99 main crop, which is expected to begin in the latter part of October 1998, is expected to yield 320,000 tons while the midcrop, beginning in May 1999, is forecast at 40,000 tons. Although 1997/98 production was the largest since 1971/72, the record outturn occurred in 1964/65 when 566,053 tons of cocoa beans were produced. The expected decrease in the 1998/99 harvest is due to the unfavorable rainfall pattern in late August and early September 1998. The sporadic rainfall did help limit the outbreak of black pod disease, a major fungal disease in cocoa.

In June 1998, pursuing its policy of increasing the producer price of cocoa as an incentive to boosting Ghana's cocoa production, the government of Ghana (GOG) increased the producer price of cocoa 22.2 percent over last season's price. The GOG has completely removed the subsidy on inputs for cocoa production, urging cocoa farmers to pay market prices for various inputs. However, a liter of UNDEN 20, a cocoa tree pesticide, has increased in cost by more than four and half times. Because of these price increases, Ghana's cocoa farmers may not be able to spray their cocoa trees, which could lead to an increase in the incidence of cocoa disease outbreaks. The real income of cocoa farmers is eroded away by depreciation of Ghana's currency, the cedi, and higher than expected inflation, magnifying the price increases of most inputs, which are imported and whose price is keyed to hard currencies.

The GOG has put in place plans aimed at divesting its interests in the Produce Buying Company (PBC) Limited, the marketing wing of Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). Since the inception of private licensed internal marketing of Ghana's cocoa, PBC has always had an advantage over the other licenced, privately-owned companies, in terms of finance and logistics. The privately- owned companies have not been able to be competitive against the PBC, which has never lacked financial resources for cocoa purchases. The divestiture of PBC could create a stage for more competitive internal marketing of cocoa which would be advantageous to the cocoa farmer.

The production of cocoa will continue to have a significant and crucial role in Ghana's economy. High export taxes on cocoa offer an administratively simple means of collecting revenue for GOG. For the cocoa farmer, cocoa production offers a ready source of income since farmers are assured of a steady market for their produce even though the producer price of the commodity may not offer a very real remunerative income.

Ghana's COCOBOD hopes to attain and maintain an average annual cocoa crop of 450,000 tons by the year 2005, and 500,000 tons by the year 2010. COCOBOD has started a gradual, but steady program for the reclamation of abandoned and diseased cocoa farms. With the depletion of virgin forests, the urgent need for reclamation of these farms is apparent. The Cocoa Research Institute has been rasing large numbers of cocoa seedlings of the high yielding early maturing hybrid varieties, and has been distributing them to farmers for rehabilitating these farms.

The total installed capacity for the local processing of Ghana's cocoa has increased from 80,000 tons to 85,000 tons. This is due to the refurbishment of some equipment at PORTEM in Tema, which has increased its processing capacity from 20,000 to 25,000 tons. However, there is substantial room for additional expansion if the GOG and Ghana's COCOBOD would reconsider their stand on the privatization of PORTEM.

The local processing of cocoa in Ghana for the 1998/99 cocoa season will be the same for the 1997/98 cocoa season. The three processing companies are forecast to process a total of about 75,000 tons of cocoa. WAMCO I and WAMCO II export the semi-finished products to their parent company, HOSTA, in Germany for further processing, while PORTEM exports the bulk of its products to the EU, Japan, the United States, China, Australia, and some new markets in the former eastern European countries.

In 1998/99, it is estimated that a little over 300,000 tons of cocoa bean exports will take place, reduced from the previous year because of the reduction in the forecast production level.

Brazil

In Brazil, the 1998/99 production forecast of 170,000 tons is up 5 percent from last season's revised output, which turned out to be the lowest since the 1972/73 crop of 158,700 tons. The forecast is also sharply lower than the record 415,000-ton output of 1984/85. Bahia's main crop is forecast at 72,000 tons, while Bahia's midcrop and other production are forecast at 98,000 tons. The upcoming 1998/99 main crop (October -April) was initially damaged by the long dry spell that occurred during February-April 1998, which adversely affected flowering. However, recent rains throughout August have improved the outlook for this crop and it is expected to be larger than last year.

Brazil: Cocoa Bean Production by State (metric tons)

Final Revised Forecast

On June 19, 1998, the government of Brazil published Resolution number 2,513, issued by the Central Bank of Brazil. This contained regulations regarding the special fund for the new program to redevelop cocoa production in the southern Bahia region. This program is the second attempt to redevelop cocoa production in Bahia which was seriously affected by witch's broom disease. The first program, a special fund of U.S. $340 million, expended only U.S. $125 million. However, most targeted small producers could not provide the required credit guarantees due to prior debts with local banks. Thus, the assistance target of 20,000 producers was not reached and only 4,000 producers actually obtained some of the designated credit.

The new program has established an ambitious goal of increasing the current level of production to 400,000 tons by the year 2003. The aim is to redevelop cocoa production on 300,000 hectares. The new program entails joint work between cocoa farmers, crushers, the federal and state governments, and the Cocoa Research Center (CEPLAC). During the first year of the program, the plan calls for 20 percent of the area to be redeveloped through the distribution of cocoa strains resistant to witch's broom disease. The resistant strains will be grafted onto the cocoa trees affected by the fungus. During the second year, the plan calls for 30 percent of the area to be redeveloped, and the remaining 50 percent is targeted for the third year. CEPLAC also plans to initiate efforts to increase the density of cocoa trees per hectare. As part of the afforestation projects in southern Bahia, rubber trees are being planted together with cocoa trees in order to increase productivity.

Demand for cocoa products in the domestic market remains poor, which explains higher stocks of cocoa products in the hands of the four big crushers (Cargill, ADM, Nestle, and Chadler). Together, these crushers have an estimated crushing capacity 260,000 to 270,000 bags (60 kg) per month, but face problems of shortfalls in the cocoa crop due to the problems with witch's broom and irregular weather in the Bahia producing region. According to the Bahia Commercial Association, Brazil's cocoa grindings during the 1997/98 crop are 185,333 tons, compared with 178,912 tons during 1996/97.

Demand for chocolate in Brazil increased significantly during 1994 and 1995, but slowed in 1996 and 1997, and is estimated to remain flat in 1998. Prospects for 1999 and 2000 call for a more realistic demand increase (in the range of 2-4 percent per year) in consumption of chocolate, mostly as chocolate drinks. Average consumption of chocolate in Brazil is only 2 kilograms per person.

Brazil is considered the fifth largest chocolate market in the world. The chocolate industry is highly competitive in Brazil, and is basically dominated by U.S. and European multinationals. The three largest companies (Philip Morris, Nestle and the Brazilian company Garoto) control nearly 80 percent of the chocolate market in Brazil. Other multinational companies have recently entered Brazil's market, such as M&M Mars, Warner-Lambert, Arcor and Ferrero Rocher.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Supply has authorized imports of cocoa products from other sources besides Indonesia, of which the most important is Cote d'Ivoire. Normally, these imports are authorized under the drawback system, by which a crusher imports cocoa and exports its products, exempt of export taxes.

Indonesia

The 1998/99 forecast for Indonesia is for a record 310,000 tons, up 1 percent from last season. Cocoa bean production in this country has more than tripled during the past decade. In response to higher prices received by smallholder farmers for the upcoming season, yields are expected to increase slightly to 1,040 kilograms per hectare. Although planted and harvested area is projected to remain unchanged for the upcoming crop, the 1997/98 planted area has been revised upward by 11 percent.

The current domestic cocoa prices have increased by more than 300 percent compared to a year ago. The large price increases, which resulted from the dramatic currency depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah, has encouraged farmers to improve their management practices including timely pruning, harvesting, and pest control, coupled with replanting damaged or dead trees. Spontaneous planting by smallholders, inspired by high local cocoa bean prices, was the reason for the revised increase in planted area last year. Although new plantings are continuing, the removal of dead trees caused by dry conditions last year and pest outbreaks is expected to result in no significant change in area planted in 1998/99. With higher incomes, farmers are not only improving maintenance but also are increasingly able to afford to apply optimum levels of fertilizer. Production may further increase in the near term as the number of bearing trees begins to increase.

The extensive drought caused by El Nino in 1997 and the first half of 1998 has led to smaller bean sizes and a consequent lower bean quality. With the assistance of the American Cocoa Research (ACRI), the Indonesian Cocoa Association (ASKINDO) continues to educate farmers to fight cocoa pod borer or Conopomorpha Cramerella (CPB) which persists as a major problem for cocoa growers. Extension services also continually train farmers on the appropriate procedure of plant cultivation and post-harvest management, such as fermentation, which is a major factor in determining cocoa bean quality.

The sharp increases in cocoa prices since the local currency depreciation has had a significant impact on domestic cocoa consumption. Processors are buying less due to the increased prices and overall difficulties of the economic collapse. According to the ASKINDO, consumption in 1997/98 may decline to 27,000 tons, almost 7 percent lower than the level in 1996/97. Continued economic stress suggests that consumption will rebound only slightly in 1998/99 to 28,000 tons.

Despite an increase in production and strong export demand, the financial crisis is resulting in flat exports of cocoa beans for 1997/98 at 220,000 tons. The expansion of better management practices which will produce higher yields and better bean quality is expected to increase cocoa bean exports for 1998/99 to 230,000 tons.

Because of the difficulties facing the cocoa processing industries (financial as well as high bean prices), exports of cocoa products are estimated to decline to 54,000 tons (bean equivalent) in 1997/98, down by more than 13 percent from the level in 1996/97. Some rebounding is forecast for 1998/99 with the volume of cocoa product exports forecast at 56,000 tons (bean equivalent).

Nigeria

The 1998/99 cocoa bean forecast of 130,000 tons is down 10 percent from last year because of the El Nino weather factor. It is also down dramatically from the 323,900-ton-record crop of 1970/71. Field travel through the cocoa region revealed that the number of cherelles (tiny pods) per tree is fewer this year compared to the same period in 1997. The rains came late in May, unlike normal March rainfall, and the volume has so far been less than adequate for a good crop.

Cocoa production in Nigeria is generally unorganized and dominated by smallholder farmers with an average farm size of 3 hectares with little or no capacity to expand. Smallholder cocoa farming is highly labor intensive consisting of mostly older farmers who depend heavily on family labor. However, the younger generation has migrated to the cities in search of white collar jobs. This has resulted in a gross underutilization of Nigeria's productive capacity despite the attractive farmgate prices. There are now some occurrences of young men returning to the farm due to unemployment in the cities.

Existing government-owned estates in Ondo, Cross River, Abia, and Oyo states, cumulatively estimated at 15,000 hectares have all been leased out to individual farmers. Farmers taking leases of between one and ten hectares have reportedly reactivated these estates after many years of abandonment. A program of gradual replanting of old fields with hybrid seedlings was built into the lease agreement with the government providing seedlings at subsidized prices. Production from these estates is expected to increase in the coming years.

The medium- and long-term outlooks for cocoa bean production in Nigeria appear to be mixed despite the very good farmgate prices and Nigeria's capacity to double the current production level. Cocoa production is constrained by inconsistencies in government policies, poor rural infrastructure, older cocoa trees, and a slow paced replanting program. The government continues to be indifferent to the cocoa sector as there is no policy in place to increase new plantings or replace cocoa trees.

Area cultivated remains unchanged from last year's estimate of 430,000 hectares as most of the seedlings sold goes to replanting old fields. Under the National Accelerated Industrial Crop Program initiated in 1993, the government continues to release matching grants to cocoa producing states to raise hybrid, disease-resistant, high-yielding, and early-maturing seedlings for distribution to farmers at subsidized prices. However, government extension services which previously provided on-farm training for farmers on pre-planting, planting, and post-planting operations have virtually disappeared due to poor funding.

The total installed processing capacity of the existing 13 processing plants can grind an estimated 130,000 tons of raw cocoa beans per annum. This is adequate to process all the cocoa beans produced in the country. However, actual grinding in 1997/98 was 25,000 tons of cocoa beans, representing a mere 20 percent capacity utilization. Local processors indicated that they are having tough times competing with exporters for available beans. Some of the processing plants were forced to shut down operations during the last season either due to scarcity of beans or because they could not compete with exporters for the cocoa beans that were available.

Exports were down in 1997/98 due to the reduce light crop. An estimated 115,000 tons of Nigerian cocoa was exported in raw form in 1997 while the remaining 25,000 tons was processed into cocoa butter, cake, liquor and powder, the bulk of which was also exported.

Malaysia

The 1998/99 cocoa bean forecast is 100,000 tons, down 6 percent from last year and the lowest outturn since the 100,000-ton crop of 1984/85. The record crop of 240,000 tons was set in 1989/90 and production has been steadily declining for the past 5 years. The surge in cocoa prices has not stopped the conversion of cocoa area to oil palm as the latter is currently considered to be the most profitable crop. Area planted to cocoa in 1998/99 is forecast to decline by 5,000 hectares from the previous year, to 145,000 hectares. In the 1989/90 season, 412,236 hectares were under cocoa cultivation. For the current season, there is also concern about the effects La Nina may have on the cocoa bean crop.

The total capacity of cocoa processing plants is close to 145,000 tons. Local grinders are turning increasingly to imported beans to offset the decline in domestic bean output. Rapid development in the cereal/snack/confectionary food sector contributed to steady growth in domestic cocoa product consumption. Some of the finished products are also exported overseas.

With a decline in domestic output, Malaysia's cocoa bean exports for the first 9 months of 1997/98 dropped almost 50 percent to 13,000 tons. In addition, a bigger portion of the output was consumed by local grinders limiting the availability of beans for the export market. China and Singapore are the top 2 markets. This trend is expected to continue into 1998/99 with another drop in cocoa bean exports and a further increase in exports of cocoa products.

Exports of cocoa butter rose 15 percent to 31,400 tons during the same period while unsweetened cocoa powder surged 24 percent to 20,000 tons. Overseas demand for both butter and powder were stronger during the latter half of 1997/98. The United States, the Netherlands and Australia are the top 3 cocoa butter markets for Malaysia. While the 3 biggest buyers of Malaysia's cocoa powder are Australia, Iran and the Netherlands.

Cocoa bean imports increased in 1997/98 with Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Ghana being the major suppliers. For 1998/99, local demand for cocoa bean imports is expected to be higher in order to offset a tighter domestic supply situation.

Ecuador

The 1998/99 forecast of 87,000 tons is nearly two and one half times larger than the drought-stricken crop of last season, but down 15 percent from the 1996/97 output. The record harvest occurred in 1984/85 when 128,000 tons of cocoa beans were produced. The cocoa industry expects a recovery for the upcoming season after the disastrous crop this past year due to El Nino. The aberrant rainfall patterns have ceased and crop production conditions have returned to near normal for the time being. However, if the La Nina weather impacts the crop later this year, another very poor year could result.

Cocoa bean production for 1997/98 plummeted to only 35,000 tons as El Nino created poor growing and crop development conditions. This would mark the lowest outturn since 1964/65 when 30,300 tons were produced. The El Nino effect produced a lack of sunlight, foggy conditions, and elevated temperatures during the flowering stage and much of the growing season. The crop was a catastrophe for small producers and the rest of the industry. Cocoa diseases such as witch's broom and pod rot flourished under these conditions. Area planted to cocoa for the 1998/99 season is forecast at 280,000 hectares, down 3 percent from last year. Some areas are being replanted with a new cocoa variety called CCN-51. With this new variety, population density can nearly double to at least 1,200 plants per hectare compared to the traditional variety. The new variety is resistant to many cocoa diseases and yields about 25 to 30-hundredweight per hectare, a significant increase compared with the average 6 to 8-hundredweight yields for the national Arriba variety.

Ecuadorian exports of cocoa beans and products for 1998/99 are expected to increase to about 84,000 tons in terms of bean equivalent, of both cocoa beans and products. Figures of exports of cocoa for 1997/98 were reduced from 73,000 to 41,000 tons, because of the decline in both cocoa bean and cocoa products exports. The reduction of exports for 1997/1998 is due to a dramatic reduction in production as a result of the weather disaster. The poor quality of the beans was a persistent factor in the scarce harvest. Some exporters could not honor contracts with cocoa buyers. Sources indicate that the short supply of cocoa beans has affected the local processing industry to the point that some local companies have stopped production, leading to a scarcity of the product in the local market.

Dominican Republic

Hurricane Georges has had a devastating affect on agriculture in the Dominican Republic both in real and psychological terms. Cutting a swath through the southeast corner of the island to the northwest it destroyed up to 95 percent of crops in some areas. The official report from the Ministry of Agriculture estimates damages to the agricultural sector in excess of $255 million as a result of the hurricane.

Cocoa plantations in the eastern and central part of the country suffered damage from the high winds that accompanied Hurricane Georges. Estimates of damage in the plantations suggest as much as 20 percent destruction--the rest could be recovered. Production for 1998/99 was expected to be down from a record high in 1997/98, prior to the event. In addition to the wind damage, flooding affected the shading trees in the plantations in about 30-35 percent of the areas planted. As a result, production is expected to be down by 20-30 percent next year from the estimated 53,000 tons.

United States

According to the Chocolate Manufacturers Association, U.S. cocoa grindings during the third quarter of 1998 totaled 104,359 tons, down a little more than 1 percent from the third quarter 1997 level of 105,984 tons. Chocolate liquor melted and cocoa butter melted during the third quarter in 1998 were reported at 2,515 tons and 14,844 tons, respectively. The chocolate liquor melted figure represented an increase of 38 percent from the third quarter of 1997, while the butter melted number represented a 7-percent decline.

Mainly as a result of the economic slowdown in key Asian countries, the value of U.S. exports of cocoa and cocoa products are forecast to decline in 1997/98 to $425 million. In addition, U.S. exports to Canada and the EU are forecast to decline. U.S. exports of cocoa and products during October-July 1997/98 were $342.3 million, a decline of over 3 percent from the previous year. The value of shipments to Canada declined by over 2 percent in October-July 1997/98 from the same period in 1996/97. However, exports to Canada in 1996/97 were a record $205.6 million, up over 23 percent from 1995/96. Exports to Mexico are up over 5 percent. Shipments to the EU during October-July 1997/98 are down $1.7 million from the 1996/97 level. Although shipments are up considerably to Belgium-Luxembourg, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, exports to Finland dropped from $17.1 million in October-July 1996/97 to $9.3 million in the same period of 1997/98. U.S. exports to most key Asian countries declined during the October-July 1997/98 period. China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand all posted year-to-year declines.

Germany

Germany's grind during the third quarter of 1998 is reported at 55,267 tons, down 15 percent from the previous year's third quarter, but up 16 percent from the second quarter of 1998. Germany's cocoa bean imports during January-July 1998 were reported at 172,143 tons compared with 199,138 tons during the same period of 1997. The leading supplier was Cote d'Ivoire, followed by Nigeria, Ghana and Indonesia.

Netherlands

The Netherlands' grind for the third quarter of 1998 is 108,580 tons. This is a nearly 7-percent increase from the third quarter of 1997, and was virtually unchanged from the second quarter of 1998 figure of 108,101 tons.

United Kingdom

Grind during the third quarter of 1998 was 40,047 tons, down nearly 3 percent over the same quarter last year. In addition, the grind total was down 5 percent from the second quarter of 1998.

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)

The ICCO set a production target of 2.74 million tons in 1998/99 under its production/ management plan. The aim of the plan is to achieve a 34 percent stocks-to-grind ratio by the year 2000/01. The ICCO's forecasts for 1998/99 are consumption (grind), 2.85 million tons; stocks, 1.02 million tons; giving a stocks-to-grind ratio of 35.8 percent. In addition, delegates of the ICCO agreed to extend the 1993 International Cocoa Agreement in its entirety for 2 years from October 1999. The following table gives the target production levels for the major countries:

Coffee

Dominican Republic

Estimates of damage to the plantations initially suggest that almost 40 percent was heavily affected. Some producers have indicated that the major problem confronting the coming harvest is road access to the production fields in the mountains and transporting the coffee beans to the processing sites. Preliminary numbers indicate that production for 1997-98 was approximately 600,000 60-kilogram bags. Industry sources indicate that the 1998/99 crop is going to be considerably lower as the fruits for the coming main harvest (October-December) were already in the trees. The hurricane affected about 35 percent of the plantations and production for 1998/99 is expected to be down by 25 percent or about 450,000 60-kilogram bags, leaving less than 200,000 60-kilogram bags for the export market, less than half of what was exported in marketing year 1998.

Brazil

Brazil continues to offer government-owned stocks through its auction system.

United States

U.S. coffee stocks at the end of September totaled 1.68 million bags, down 141,000 bags from the August 31, 1998, level. Details follow:

Spices

Following is information concerning exports of pepper from the major producing countries, as reported by the International Pepper Community.

Source: International Pepper Community.

Following is information concerning the production of pepper, as reported by the International Pepper Community.

Source: International Pepper Community.

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000