World Sugar Situtation

WORLD SUGAR SITUATION

World centrifugal sugar production in 1999/00 is forecast at a record 131.3 million tons, an increase of 2 percent above the previous year’s output. This forecast is the sixth consecutive year of increased world sugar production. Projected increases in 1999/00 in Brazil, the European Union, India, and Australia were only partially offset by expected lower output in China, Thailand, South Africa, and Turkey. World sugar consumption in 1999/00 is forecast at 129.0 million tons, a 2-percent increase from the previous year’s level. The largest consumption increases are expected in Asia, with a large increase in India likely, and South America. World exports are forecast to increase slightly to about 34.8 millions tons. Increased exports from the EU, Brazil, and Australia will be offset by declines in Thailand and South Africa. Many key exporters will be faced with either exporting sugar at low world prices or maintaining large stocks.


Summary


Production

The 1999/00 record world centrifugal sugar production forecast of 131.3 million metric tons (raw value) is up 2 percent from last season. The largest increase in sugar outturn is expected to occur in India, up 6 percent or 1.0 million tons. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer, sugar production is forecast at 19.0 million tons, up 4 percent from last season. In the European Union, the largest producer of sugar from sugarbeets, the 1999/2000 year forecast is 18.4 million tons, up 3 percent from last season.

Trade

In 1999/00, world sugar trade is forecast at 34.8 million tons, only slightly above the previous year’s shipments. The European Union, Brazil and Australia are expected to account for the increase. South Africa, Cuba, Guatemala and Thailand are all expected to reduce exports in 1999/00. The leading exporters will continue to be faced with an oversupply situation in 1999/00. Their ability to export will depend on their willingness to hold stocks or control production versus the profitability of exports at low price levels.

Leading importers of sugar in 1998/99 are Russia, the United States, Japan, South Korea and the
European Union. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest sugar importer. Despite the relatively low price of sugar, many of the main importers of sugar are facing financial or political problems, which is limiting their imports of sugar and increasing uncertainty in the markets.

Consumption

World sugar consumption in 1999/00 is forecast at a record 129.0 million tons, 2 percent above the previous year’s level. This increase is expected to be driven by India, other Asian countries, and the Middle East. Industry sources believe that sugar consumption will continue to grow in Asia, despite recent economic troubles, as sugar is a staple commodity in the Asian diet. Total Asian consumption is forecast to increase by 2 percent in 1999/00, though most is due to a rise in India in response to higher production and to an expected rebound in consumption in Indonesia.

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000