Raisin Situation and Outlook

Southern Hemisphere

 

Australia

 

The 2000/2001 (March 2001 - February 2002) raisin crop is forecast up 9 percent to 29,000 tons. A return to normal weather conditions is expected to increase yields. Furthermore, more wine grape production is expected to be diverted to dried fruit, further increasing the size of the raisin crop.

Raisin production in 1999/2000 was changed from 32,500 tons to 26,667 tons, due to lower than expected yields, as a result of unfavorable weather prior to harvest. Despite the downward revision, raisin production in 1999/2000 is up 26 percent from the small raisin crop in 1998/99.

 

Exports during 2000/01 are projected to decrease by 7 percent to 8,000 tons, as greater amounts of raisin production are consumed domestically. Given the small size and poor quality of Australia’s raisin crop in recent years, exporters anticipate that the availability of high quality raisins for export will continue to be small. Some exporters are indicating that priority will be given to clients in the United Kingdom and Germany. In 1999/2000, exports are estimated to reach 8,610 tons, up 54 percent from the small raisin crop in 1998/99. The major export markets thus far in 1999/2000 are Germany, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada. Raisin imports are expected to decline by 14 percent in 2000/01 to reach 15,000 tons.

 

Chile

 

Poor weather in Chile’s raisin producing areas will reduce raisin production in Chile to 34,000 tons in 2000/01 (January 2001 - December 2001), an estimated 3-percent decline from the previous year. Raisin production for 1999/2000 has been revised upward from 31,000 tons to 35,000 tons, as lower quality grapes were diverted from fresh consumption to raisin production.

 

Over 90 percent of Chile’s raisin production is exported. Export estimates for 1999/2000 were revised up from the previous forecast to 30,500 tons, because of the larger raisin crop. For 2000/2001, exports will depend on total final production, but are currently expected to be at a level similar to the previous year. The Latin American market represented close to 65 percent of Chile’s raisin exports in 1999/2000. Chile does not import raisins.

 

South Africa

 

Raisin production is forecast at 37,000 tons in 2000/01 (January 2001 - December 2001), a 3 percent decline from the previous year, as a result of poor weather conditions during the fruit drying period. Raisin quality and quantity also declined in 1999/2000 to 38,142 tons as a result of heavy rains.

 

Exports during 2000/2001 are forecast to at 27,000 tons, unchanged from last year.

 

 

Northern Hemisphere

 

Greece

 

The 2000/01 raisin crop (September 2000 - August 2001) is estimated at 30,000 tons, up 33 percent from the previous year, due to greater planted acreage and excellent weather during the fruit drying period. Approximately 70 percent of the crop was graded No. 2 and 30 percent No. 4. Raisin production during 1999/2000 is estimated to reach 22,500 tons. Hot and dry conditions during the growing period combined with wet weather during the fruit drying period negatively affected the quality and output of the 1999/2000 raisin crop.

 

Raisin exports are expected to rise from 22,000 tons in 1999/2000 to 30,000 tons in 2000/01. As of late September and early October 2000, orders were completed for a large portion of the 2000 raisin crop at prices between U.S. $950 - $1,000 per ton (F.O.B.).

 

Turkey

 

Raisin production in 2000/01 (September 2000 - August 2001) is forecast at 255,000 tons, up 34 percent from the previous year. Production area is projected to increase slightly in 2000/01 with some cotton growers in the region having already switched to raisin production in order to earn higher returns. Favorable weather during the growing and drying period have also produced high quality raisins. Preliminary indications for this year’s crop are #10 - 40 percent, #9 - 50 percent, and #8 - 10 percent compared to last year’s 15 percent, 70 percent, and 15 percent, respectively. Raisin production in 1999/2000 is estimated at 190,000 tons, a 24-percent decline from the previous year.

 

Exports during 2000/01 are currently projected to increase by 11 percent to the record high level of 210,000 tons, as a result of the expected size and quality of the raisin crop. Current export prices for Turkey’s raisins are on average U.S. $200 lower per ton for standard #9 bulk and U.S. $200 to $400 lower per ton for standard #10 than last year. In 1999/2000, exports are estimated to be up slightly from 188,247 tons to 189,468 tons, despite the small crop. The import duty for raisins in 2000 is 57.3 percent of the CIF value on raisin imports.

 

United States

 

Raisin production for 2000/01 (August 2000 - July 2001) is projected to reach 369,354 tons, up 19 percent from the previous year. Raisin production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 309,350 tons, up 23 percent from the previous year. According to the U.S. raisin industry, bunch count is the highest since 1985. At 9.61 tons per acres, yields are also the highest in three years.

 

Raisin exports are estimated to recover in 2000/01 to reach 115,000 tons from the low 80,251 tons exported in 1999/2000. Strong competition and high U.S. raisin prices led to a 28-percent decline in exports in 1999/2000. Imports are also expected to continue to decline as raisin stock levels reach more normal levels. For 2000/01, imports are expected to reach 14,000 tons, down 19 percent from the previous year and down 43 percent from 1998/99.

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit industries for 6 countries, including Australia, Chile and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Karina Ramos at 202-720-0897. For information on marketing contact Kelley Strzelecki at 202-690-1341. Also, visit the dried fruit webpage at: /htp/horticulture/driedfrt.html)

 

 

Last modified: Tuesday, May 08, 2001