Northern Hemisphere Apple Situation and Outlook

Production

Apple Production in the Northern Hemisphere Continues to Increase

Total apple production in selected Northern Hemisphere countries in 2000/01 will likely continue to increase and reach a new record of 43.4 million tons. The increase mainly reflects another bumper crop in China, the world’s largest apple producer. China’s apple production in 2000/01 is forecast to increase 6 percent to more than 22 million tons, with planted area estimated to be more than 3 million hectares. Favorable weather, combined with the continuing maturation of planted trees, is expected to boost China’s apple crop in 2000/01. Apple production in China has increased more than 700 percent in the last 20 years and now accounts for more than 40 percent of world apple production. The major varieties grown in China are Fuji (45 percent of production), New Red Star (12 percent), Qinguan (10 percent), and Guoguang (10 percent). Between 5 percent and 7 percent of China’s apple crop is processed by the juice industry. The Qinguan variety is the most popular among China’s apple juice concentrate producers.

Apple production in selected countries of the European Union (EU) in 2000/01 is forecast at a record 9.0 million tons, or 1 percent above the record set last season. The large EU crop reflects a sharp increase in Germany’s apple production. Favorable weather conditions during fruit setting and blossoming are expected to boost Germany’s apple crop in 2000/01 by 25 percent to a record 2.4 million tons. However, hail damage later in the growing season could likely cause the diversion of more apples away from fresh consumption to processing into juice.

France, Italy, Germany, and Spain account for the bulk of the EU’s apple crop. Golden delicious, Jonagold, Red delicious, and Gala are the major apple varieties produced, in that order. New varieties, such as Braeburn and Fuji, are making inroads in Europe in response to consumers’ changes in preferences. Last year’s big crop in the EU depressed apple prices to record lows.

Apple production in the United States in 2000/01 is forecast at 4.8 million tons, practically unchanged from production in 1999/2000 and 8 percent below the record 1998/99 crop. However, apple production in Washington, the main producing state, is forecast to increase 16 percent in 2000/01 to 2.6 million tons. Favorable weather is expected to boost Washington’s apple crop this season and, as such, will likely account for more than half the 2000/01 U.S. apple crop. On the other hand, apple production in New York and Michigan, the second and third largest apple producing states, is expected to decrease 17 percent and 34 percent, respectively. In general, apple production in the eastern states is forecast down 15 percent from 1999/2000, mainly due to poor pollination conditions, late freezes, hail, and fire blight.

Increased production of non-traditional varieties, such as Fuji, Gala, Pink Lady, and Braeburn, is expected to account for a larger share of the U.S. total 2000/01 apple crop. High export prices in the early 1990's for varieties such as Fuji and Gala, led to massive planting of those varieties in California and Washington. Production of these varieties continues to increase as earlier planting is now reaching bearing age. The varietal mix should provide consumers with a wider range of colors and flavors and could help improve overall apple consumption in the United States.

Trade

Northern Hemisphere apple exports are forecast to remain unchanged in 2000/01

Apple exports from selected countries in the Northern Hemisphere in 2000/01 are forecast at 3.2 million tons, practically unchanged from last season’s shipments. Lower exports from the EU will likely offset increased export prospects from the United States and China. U.S. and China’s apple shipments in 2000/01 are forecast to increase 12 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

U.S. apple exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 600,000 tons, 12 percent more than shipments last season. A larger apple crop in Washington state, anticipated lower prices, and the continued stabilization of the economies of certain key importing Asian countries will likely boost U.S. apple exports in 2000/01. Opportunities continue to exist in newly open markets, like those in India, Yemen, and Japan, which could also help improve U.S. apple exports this season. Apple shipments to the Dominican Republic are expected to grow this season, due to a cut in the import tariff. Strong demand for U.S. apples is also expected to continue in 2000/01 in Mexico, the largest market for U.S. apples. On average, about 40 percent of U.S. annual apple exports are destined to Latin America (including Mexico, Central America, South America, and the Caribbean). Asia accounts for about 35 percent, and the Middle East and Europe for about 5 percent each. Canada alone accounts for about 15 percent of U.S. annual apple shipments.

China’s apple exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 285,000 tons, up 6 percent from 1999/2000 shipments. Fruit quality in China continues to improve, and, as such, expansion of its export markets, especially to neighboring Asian countries (especially Vietnam and the Philippines) and Russia. Reportedly, the Fuji variety accounts for about 80 percent of China’s apple exports. China also exports the Guoguang apple variety, which is mainly directed to the Russian market. In 2000/01, more Chinese apples are also expected to be diverted to the processing sector, mainly to the juice concentrate business.

U.S. apple exports in 1999/2000; the lowest in 7 seasons

U.S. apple exports in 1999/2000 totaled 537,000 tons, valued at $316 million, the lowest volume and value shipped in 7 years. A lower Washington state apple crop, a stronger U.S. dollar vis-a-vis other countries’ currencies, and ample exportable supplies in major exporting countries, such as those in the EU, hampered U.S. apple exports in 1999/2000. Shipments in 1999/2000 were also constrained by a huge apple crop in Canada, second largest export market for the United States. Apple sales to Canada in 1999/2000 decreased 9 percent to nearly 85,000 tons, the smallest volume shipped in 3 years. Increased competition from lower-priced Chinese fruit slowed U.S. apple shipments to key Asian markets, including Hong Kong (down 47 percent), Thailand (down 16 percent), the Philippines (down 49 percent) and Malaysia (down 49 percent). However, sales to Mexico reached a record volume of 155,000 tons and were valued at $85 million, the second largest export value on record. Mexico has emerged as the top destination for U.S. apple exports. Nearly 30 percent of total U.S. apple exports in 1999/2000 were destined to Mexico, compared to 3 percent in 1989/90. Sales of U.S. apples to Mexico have benefitted from free trade, an improved Mexican economy, and the U.S. industry’s increased promotion efforts. However, it is important to note that Mexico maintains an inspection program for U.S. apples, which precludes access for a number of U.S. producing states and, as such, only Washington, Oregon, and Idaho are participating in the export program. Because of Mexico’s prominence as a market, it has become increasingly critical to the U.S. apple industry that all related trade disputes and disruptions with Mexico be resolved in a prompt and trade-facilitating manner.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Forecast for the Southern Hemisphere countries for the 2000/01 season (harvest in 2001) will be available in the March 2001 issue of World Horticultural Trade & U.S. Export Opportunities.

(For information on production and trade, contact Samuel Rosa at 202-720-6086. For information on marketing, contact Sonia Jimenez at 202-690-6057. The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on deciduous fruit for more than 20 countries. Also, visit our apple webpage at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/horticulture/apples/html)

Last modified: Wednesday, February 20, 2002