Almond Situation and Outlook

United States

U.S. almond production in 2000/01 is forecast at 290,299 metric tons, 23 percent below last season, but still a large crop for the down cycle of an alternate-bearing crop. This year’s output is based on 202,344 bearing hectares, a 4-percent increase from 1999/2000. Total U.S. almond supplies in 2000/01 are forecast at 369,617 tons, down only 12 percent from the previous season, due to a smaller crop offset by large beginning stocks. Almond grower prices continued their 5-year decline by falling sharply to $.87/lb. in 1999/2000, a 38-percent decrease from 1998/99. Grower prices are expected to stabilize during 2000/01, due to lower U.S. output and supplies. Approximately 75 percent of the world’s almonds are produced by the United States.

In 2000/01, U.S. almond exports are forecast at 226,800 tons, which, while 1 percent below 1999/2000 exports, represents a significantly greater percentage of total production. Continued low almond prices are expected to spur exports for 2000/01. In 1999/2000, falling almond prices fueled export demand to a record 228,169 tons, 11 percent above the 1997/98 season, the previous record year for exports. Shelled almonds, including prepared and preserved, accounted for 91 percent of total U.S. almond exports. Major buyers of U.S. shelled almonds were the European Union (primarily Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands), accounting for 64 percent, and Asia (primarily, Japan and China) purchasing 14 percent. Asia is the most significant importer of in-shell almonds, purchasing nearly 76 percent of U.S. in-shell exports in 1999/2000.

With support from the Market Access Program, the U.S. almond industry continues to dominate the export market. China was a success story this year, with sales up over 200 percent from last year. China is now the fifth largest market for U.S. almonds, following Germany, Spain, Japan, and India. Blue Diamond is continuing to successfully export their new almond milk product. Expanding consumption is critical in selling the large U.S. crop, so marketing campaigns are focused on the message that almonds are a healthy way to snack.

Spain

Spain’s 2000/01 almond production is forecast at 55,000 tons, a 17-percent decrease compared to the previous season, due to adverse weather conditions. As of 1997, the latest year data was available, there were 629,000 bearing hectares, of which less than 10 percent were irrigated. Consequently, rainfall during the fall of 2000 will be crucial to future almond productivity. Exports in 2000/01 are forecast at 40,000 tons, 6 percent lower than last year, due to the smaller crop. Other EU countries (Germany, France, and Italy) are the major destinations, representing about 94 percent of Spain’s export markets. Almond imports in 2000/01 are forecast to increase, due to the reduced domestic crop. The United States continues to be the dominant foreign supplier of almonds to Spain, increasing its market share to 95 percent of total imports for 1999/2000. Due to their uniformity and low breakage, U.S. almonds are generally preferred by almond processors to produce food ingredients. Once processed, about 50 percent of U.S. almonds are exported to other EU countries.

While there is no price support program for tree nuts, the EU does have an improvement plan that is implemented in both Spain’s almond and hazelnut sectors. Up to 475 ECU/hectare can be provided to growers to plant improved, higher-yielding varieties. While this program was expected to end this year, Spanish nut growers effectively voiced their opposition to its demise and secured a one-year extension. Given competition from U.S. product, Spanish almond growers consider this program vital to their future competitiveness and are expected to oppose the most recent EU proposal for reform of the fruit and vegetable regime, which calls for a significant cut in subsidies.

Italy

Almond production for 2000/01 is forecast at 10,000 tons, 41 percent lower than the previous year, due to unfavorable weather conditions and the crop’s cyclical nature. Output in the medium- to long-term is projected to decline, due to reported uprooting of the oldest, least productive trees and no significant planting of new orchards. Domestic almond prices have declined throughout 1999/2000, averaging 20 percent less than last year. However, relatively cheap almond prices are still favoring domestic consumption, and in some cases are causing substitution for other, more expensive nuts. Over the past four years, imports have grown in response to both decreasing domestic production and expanding consumption, fluctuating only in response to the domestic crop volume. Price competitiveness between the United States and Spain, Italy’s two main almond sources, will remain key in determining which gains a larger share of the Italian market.

Greece

Total almond production in 2000/01 is forecast at 15,200 tons, an 11-percent decrease from last season, due to unfavorable weather conditions and some loss of orchards from forest fires. Annual production is projected to remain constant at 15,000 for the next 3-5 years, given good weather conditions. Despite grower complaints that high input costs and cheap imports make domestic production unprofitable, traders considered 1999/2000 grower prices satisfactory. Greece has the highest per capita consumption of nuts in the world and produces mainly to meet domestic demand and the growing tourism industry. Almond consumption represents about 24 percent of total domestic nut consumption. Almond exports consist only of excess nuts, which go primarily to other EU countries.

Turkey

In 2000/01, almond production in Turkey is forecast at 14,500 tons, up 4 percent from the previous year. Consumption has been growing slowly, due to the abundant availability of the preferred hazelnuts. Almonds are generally consumed whole as a snack food, with limited amounts utilized in confectionary products. Trade is mainly restricted to border exchanges with neighboring countries.

The FAS Attaché Report search engine contains detailed reports on Tree Nut Competition or Market Intelligence for 16 countries, including Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey. (For information on production and trade, contact Lisa Anderson at 202-720-5028. For information on marketing contact Ingrid Mohn at 202-720-5330. Also, visit the tree nuts web page at: /htp/horticulture/nuts.html)

Last modified: Tuesday, May 08, 2001