Orange Juice Outlook for Selected Countries

Northern Hemisphere

United States

U.S. orange juice production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.1 million tons, 21 percent above last season's output. A higher volume of oranges will be processed in 1999/2000, as a result of a rebound in orange production in Florida.

 

U.S. orange juice exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 110,250 tons, about 3 percent more than last year. Major U.S. customers are the European Union (EU), Canada, Japan, and Korea. In addition to Frozen, Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ), a key export from the United States is "Not-From-Concentrate" (NFC) juice, single strength (11.8 degrees brix), which is a higher-quality and higher-priced juice product and is rapidly increasing in importance as an export commodity. Imports of orange juice, mainly FCOJ, in 1999/2000 are forecast at 267,000 tons, up 9 percent from the previous year. U.S. consumption is forecast to increase on higher availabilities.

 

Mexico

 

Mexico's orange juice production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 36,000 tons, unchanged from a revised 1998/99 level. There are fewer oranges because of the dry weather in the northern states and excessive rainfall in the southeast states in Mexico. Mexico's orange juice exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 32,851 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 8 percent from the revised estimate for shipments in 1998/99.

 

Greece

 

Orange juice production in Greece during 1999/2000 has been revised to 13,400 tons, down about 9 percent from the previous forecast. A January frost reduced the juice recovery in Greece. As a result of the lower supply, the export estimate was reduced 500 tons to 5,000 tons for 1999/2000, but still up 500 tons from 1998/99.

 

Spain

 

Spain's orange juice production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 44,680 tons, up about 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 2 percent from the revised 1998/99 level. Orange juice exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 54,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. However, this level is now down about 5 percent from the revised 1998/99 level of 56,600 tons.

 

Japan

 

Japan's imports of orange juice are forecast at 100,000 tons during 1999/2000, up 22 percent from the previous year and up 10,000 tons from the previous estimate. Citrus juice products have been recovering market share once lost to various tea drinks such as Japanese green tea, Chinese tea and herb tea products. Lately, soft drinks with some content of natural fruit juice have been a big hit in Japan's market and this trend is expected to continue this year.

 

Korea, Republic of

 

Korea's imports of orange juice in 1999/2000 are estimated at 41,500 tons, an increase of 12 percent from the previous estimate and up 19 percent from 1998/99. During 1998/99, Korea imported 34,887 tons of orange juice. Brazil accounted for 70 percent of the total.

 

Consumption of frozen orange juice is increasing in tandem with consumer confidence in the economic recovery. Domestic processors expect consumption of orange juice to increase throughout the year 2000, but think that it would probably not be until 2001 when the market finally exceeds the record established prior to the economic crisis. Although the market for fresh squeezed orange juice is still limited, preference for such juice is steadily increasing. In 2000, construction of a new citrus processing complex having a capacity of more than 60,000 tons of citrus annually will be initiated under a joint venture agreement involving the Cheju Citrus Grower's Agricultural Cooperative (CCGAC), the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation and the Cheju provincial government. The complex will produce orange concentrate, juice, powder, liquor, chocolate, and vinegar made of citrus. Cheju is hoping that such a large scale processing facility will help stabilize citrus market prices and generate new market uses for local citrus production.

 

Southern Hemisphere

 

Australia

 

Production of orange juice in Australia during 1999/2000 (marketing year July 2000-June 2001) is forecast at 21,494 tons. This represents an increase of 25 percent from the previous year. Production of fresh oranges is forecast up nearly 17 percent year over year, which will result in higher orange juice production. Fresh oranges delivered to the processors are forecast at 280,000 tons, an increase of 22 percent. Only about 2,000 tons of orange juice are exported from Australia. In response to higher levels of orange juice output, imports are forecast to decline to 13,678 tons from 24,862 tons in 1998/99.

 

The government of Australia recently announced changes in legislation designed to strengthen labeling laws. It aims to increase the government's power to stop companies misusing the "Made in Australia" label, and to reinforce the "Product of Australia" description. This is aimed at stopping the practice of importing FCOJ, reconstituting it and labeling it as "Made in Australia". The general test for the "Made in Australia" label is that the goods have been substantially transformed and that 50 percent or more of the cost of production or manufacturing of the goods is incurred in Australia. The general test for the "Product of Australia" label is that each significant ingredient or significant component of the good and virtually all processes involved in the production or manufacture must take place in Australia. The legislation also regulates the use of a logo that may indicate the country of origin of the product.

 

The processing sector has been stimulated recently by an increase in fresh juice production. The push into fresh juice has been bolstered by the development of a "100 percent Australian Juice" logo by the Australian Citrus Growers Inc. (ACGI) in conjunction with the Australian Horticultural Corporation (AHC) and major juice marketers. The distinctive orange squeezer logo means that the juice contains no concentrate, no artificial coloring, no added water, and no imported product. The advertising campaign has included television and newspaper coverage. Seven juice companies, including the three major juice companies representing 80 percent of the fresh juice industry, are licensed by the AHC to use the logo.

 

Brazil

 

Brazil's production of orange juice during 1999/2000 (marketing year July 2000-June 2001) is forecast at 1.05 million tons, down nearly 18 percent from the revised 1998/99 level due to the expected lower volume of oranges for processing. Brazil is the largest producer of orange juice, accounting for nearly half of production by the selected major producers shown on the following tables. São Paulo plants should provide 1 million tons, while the remainder is expected to come from other states. The volume of oranges for processing is forecast at 274 million 40.8-kilogram boxes, versus 314 million 40.8- kilogram boxes in 1998/99. The São Paulo commercial area is expected to contribute 260 million boxes. In spite of the reported high stocks of FCOJ and the financial costs involved, FCOJ processors could choose to process a higher volume of oranges if the quality of the fruit allows. Currently, orange prices are not forecast to increase and processors could take advantage of the low prices to build stocks.

 

Brazil's orange juice exports for 1999/2000 (marketing year July 2000-June 2001) are forecast at 1.1 million tons, down 110,000 tons from last season. Demand is expected to be stable in the European Union and more of U.S. demand will be met by Florida's production.

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Orange Juice industries for more than 10 countries, including Italy and Australia. For information on production and trade, contact Debra A. Pumphrey at 202-720-8899. For information on marketing contact Ted Goldammer at 202-720-8498.)

 

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000