World Fresh Citrus Situation

Northern Hemisphere

 

United States

 

Total citrus production in the United States in 1999/2000 is forecast at 15.7 million tons, 27 percent above the previous year’s poor harvest. A large part of the increase is attributed to a rebound in the orange crop as growing conditions return to normal in Florida and California, following the poor harvests of 1998/1999. Total orange production in 1999/2000 is forecast to rebound to 11.9 million tons, up 32 percent from last year’s reduced output. Production is forecast to increase in Florida by 24 percent and in California by 86 percent. As of July 12, the Valencia orange harvest was in full swing with approximately 10 percent of the crop picked. A few of the late variety Navel oranges remained to be harvested. Grapefruit production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 2.5 million tons, up about 11 percent from last year’s output. Grapefruit movement in Florida was virtually complete by the last week of June.

 

Total U.S. citrus exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 1.0 million tons, 30 percent higher than the previous year’s shipments, due to the rebound of California oranges. Orange exports in 1999/2000 are forecast to reach 500,000 tons, double the previous year’s freeze- damaged level. U.S. grapefruit exports in 1999/2000 are forecast to decrease about 6 percent to about 400,000 tons.

 

U.S. oranges for processing in 1999/2000 are forecast at 9.7 million tons, up 29 percent from last year’s low processing levels, based on the higher Florida orange harvest. Consumption of fresh oranges is estimated at 1.7 million tons, up 28 percent.

 

Israel

 

Israel’s citrus production during 1999/2000 has been revised to an estimated 910,000 tons, an increase of 31 percent from 1998/99 and up 12 percent from the previous estimate. Grapefruit production has been revised upward to 365,000 tons and tangerine production was increased to 135,000 tons.

 

Mexico

 

Mexico’s citrus production is forecast at a revised 4.6 million tons in 1999/2000, about 5 percent above last year’s output, but down nearly 7 percent from 1997/98. Orange production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 3.1 million tons, up about 7 percent from 1998/99, but down 7 percent from 1997/98. Production in Veracruz was damaged by floods and heavy rains in October 1999, which reduced oranges for the early orange harvest. Also, dry weather in Nuevo Leon decreased Valencia orange production to 150,000 tons. Producers indicate, however, that better weather during the second and third blooms (January and May) could bring higher than normal production for the second and third orange harvests (May to August). Fruit from the second and third blooms, however, is not as sweet as that from the first crop and those oranges are not suitable for the processing industry.

 

Mexico’s imports of oranges are forecast at 22,000 tons in 1999/2000, up 10 percent from the previous year. U.S. orange exports to Mexico could expand given the decrease in Mexico’s tariff and the possibilities for California, Texas and Arizona to ship to Mexico. Mexico’s market is more price sensitive than quality sensitive and this limits U.S. exports of citrus to Mexico. Reports indicate that prices for U.S. product are 4 to 5 times higher than for Mexican products.

 

Exports of oranges in 1999/2000 are forecast at 9,000 tons, down sharply from the 50,000 tons exported in 1998/99, which resulted from higher U.S. demand because of the California freeze. The United States is traditionally the largest export market for Mexico’s oranges, which mostly originate in Sonora. Mexico’s exporters continue to explore Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.

 

Spain

 

Spain’s total citrus crop for 1999/2000 is revised to an estimated 5.7 million tons, an increase of 12 percent from the previous year, and 1 percent above 1997/98. Orange, tangerine, and lemon production are forecast to increase by 11, 18, and 2 percent, respectively. Orange production during 1999/2000 was revised slightly to 2.71 million tons, up from 2.69 million tons forecast previously. The lemon production estimate for 1999/2000 was increased slightly; however, the estimate for 1998/99 was raised to 878,000 tons from 701,000 tons estimated previously.

 

Spain is the world’s largest citrus exporter, accounting for nearly 50 percent of total Northern Hemisphere exports. Spain’s citrus exports in 1999/2000 are estimated to increase by 17 percent because of the increased supplies of oranges, tangerines, and lemons. The bulk of these exports go to traditional European markets such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

 

Morocco

 

Morocco’s citrus production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.4 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. A drop in orange production is expected to be offset by higher tangerine production.

 

Citrus exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 580,000 tons, 8 percent below the previous year’s shipments, based on the smaller orange crop. Orange exports are forecast at 335,000 tons and tangerine exports are forecast at 245,000 tons.

 

Turkey

 

Turkey’s citrus production in 1999/2000 is forecast to grow by 11 percent to 2.15 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Favorable weather this year and improved tree maintenance and cultivation techniques have helped to increase production of oranges, lemons, and grapefruit. Turkey’s citrus exports are forecast to increase to 555,000 tons, up 22 percent from the previous year.

 

Korea

 

In 2000, the Cheju Citrus Grower’s Agricultural Cooperative (CCGAC) initiated tenders for minimum market access (MMA) quota oranges starting in early January. Historically, CCGAC imported and marketed MMA oranges in late spring to avoid competing with the local citrus crop. This year CCGAC started importing oranges during the middle of the local citrus season, purportedly to generate revenue to help offset some of the losses resulting from sales of last year’s imports.

 

To date in 2000, out-of quota imports by private traders have exceeded the in-quota amount CCGAC has brought in under a lower MMA tariff. The tariff difference between quota and non-quota orange imports is less than 20 percent. Total import volume, inclusive of MMA quota and non-quota oranges, is projected at 70,000 tons, mostly California Navels.

 

In 1999, Korea signed phytosanitary protocols with South Africa, followed by Israel, enabling both countries to enter Korea’s fruit market. Last year, South Africa shipped a limited quantity of oranges to Korea while Israel marketed a grapefruit-type citrus named "sweetie". In 2000, Korea signed a phytosanitary protocol with Australia which would supply the Korean market during the off-season for U.S. navel oranges. Navel oranges from South Africa and Australia, however, would compete directly with California’s and Florida’s Valencia orange varieties and Korea’s green-house citrus crop. Other countries, such as Spain and Chile, are seeking to establish protocols to export citrus to Korea.

 

Japan

 

Japan’s total citrus production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 1.7 million tons, up 9 percent from the 1998/99 level. Tangerine production in 1999/2000 is forecast to account for 93 percent of total production.

 

Japan’s total citrus imports in 1999/2000 are forecast to increase to 547,000 tons, up 20 percent from the 1998/99 level. Abundant supplies of high-quality, low-priced fruit this year will result in near-record imports of U.S. fresh grapefruit and oranges, with imports from all sources projected to reach 290,000 tons and 160,000 tons, respectively. This level of fresh orange imports represents an increase of 67 percent in 1999/2000 from the previous year. Imports of fresh lemons in 1999/2000 are projected to be up slightly from last year to 90,000 tons.

 

China

 

China’s citrus production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 8.6 million tons, 13 percent above last year’s output, and unchanged from the previous forecast. Tangerine production is forecast to increase by 13 percent to 5.7 million tons, though this output is still 17 percent below the 1997/98 output. Orange production is forecast to increase 12 percent, to 2.9 million tons.

 

Total citrus exports in 1998/99 are forecast at 156,000 tons, of which, tangerines make up 148,000 tons. The recent Agreement on U.S.-China Agricultural Cooperation has resulted in some sales of U.S. citrus to China. There have been some initial problems with shipments and fresh citrus imports continue to face high tariffs.

 

 

Southern Hemisphere

 

Total Southern Hemisphere citrus production is forecast at 20.7 million tons, a decline of nearly 6 percent from the previous year. Total citrus exports are forecast at 1.3 million tons, up 3 percent from the 1998/99 level.

 

Australia

 

Total citrus production in Australia in 1999/2000 (marketing year April 2000-March 2001) is forecast at 630,000 tons, an increase of 16 percent from the previous year, as a result of increased orange production. A return to normal growing conditions is expected to result in the 1999/2000 orange crop reaching 600,000 tons, an increase of 17 percent from 1998/99. Quality is forecast to be above average for fruit size; however, industry sources are concerned about thrip damage in the Riverland of South Australia which may affect the export market. The larger crop will continue to put downward pressure on prices. However, price decreases should be constrained by improved processing returns and continued strong export demand.

 

Orange exports are forecast at 142,000 tons in 1999/2000 (marketing year April 2000-March 2001), an increase of 29 percent. The United States is now the second largest export destination. During April 1999 to March 2000, Australia shipped 22,479 tons of fresh oranges to the United States out of a total of 110,079 tons. Export markets that grew significantly during 1999/2000 were Malaysia and Japan which grew at 19 and 59 percent, respectively. Malaysia is now Australia’s largest export destination.

 

Australia’s lemon production is forecast at 30,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year. Only about 16 percent of total production goes to the export market as fresh lemons. The majority of lemon production goes to either fresh domestic consumption or for processing.

 

Argentina

 

Total citrus production in Argentina in 1999/2000 is forecast at 2.22 million tons, down only slightly from the previous year. Unfavorable weather, and in some cases reduced input use, are responsible for the decrease. Citrus production in Argentina is second in volume (after grapes) among the fresh fruits grown in the country. Argentina’s citrus is produced in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Corrientes, Misiones, Jujuy, Salta and Tucuman. Most of Argentina’s citrus is processed or consumed fresh by the domestic market. Only about 14-16 percent of total citrus production, composed mainly of lemons and oranges, is exported.

 

Lemon production during 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 1.05 million tons, an increase of about 1 percent from last year. The growing season consisted of mild temperatures, timely rains and a lack of high humidity which led to good fruit setting, greater quantity of sprouts and a higher yield of good quality fruits. Offsetting this was a delayed harvest because of excessive rains, especially during the months of February and March, which adversely affected fruit size. As a result, more lemons will be destined to the processing industry. Lemons destined for processing in 1999/2000 are forecast at 740,000 tons, up 3 percent from the previous year’s level.

 

Orange production during 1999/2000 is forecast at 663,000 tons, up slightly from the previous year. Corrientes and Entre Rios are the two largest provinces for area planted to oranges, accounting for over 70 percent of the total. Orange exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 73,000 tons, down about 3 percent. Although production is up slightly, exports of fresh oranges and the amount going to processing are down in order to meet the demand for domestic consumption of fresh oranges.

 

Fresh tangerine production during 1999/2000 is forecast at 340,000 tons, down from 346,000 tons estimated in 1998/99. Entre Rios accounts for 59 percent of total tangerine area and Corrientes accounts for 22 percent. The drop in output is attributed to late frosts followed by a drought that lasted until August 1999 and a deteriorating financial situation that discourages some producers from carrying out proper cultural practices. Grapefruit production is forecast at 165,000 tons, down 7 percent from the previous year. Salta is the leading province that produces grapefruit. As with other citrus provinces, a deteriorating financial situation has led producers to cut back on cultural practices. About 70 percent of fresh grapefruit is consumed domestically.

 

On June 8, 2000, USDA issued a press release announcing that it will allow limited importation of citrus from Argentina. USDA is amending its regulations to recognize four states within Argentina as being free from citrus canker. The regulations have also been amended to allow the importation into the continental United States of grapefruit, lemons, and oranges from these areas under certain conditions and with limited distribution (34 northern-tier states to begin with). USDA will phase in this regulation over the course of four years.

 

Brazil

 

Brazil’s production of oranges during 1999/2000 (local marketing year July 2000-June 2001) is forecast at 16.5 million tons, a decline of 8 percent. Orange production in São Paulo and Minas Gerais has been negatively affected by the dry weather and high temperatures that prevailed during flowering and fruit set. The lack of rainfall during the second semester of 1999 affected the first and second blossoms, resulting in delayed flowering and smaller size fruits. A third and larger blossom occurred in late December and January as a result of intense rainfall during that period. Approximately 25 to 30 percent of the 1999/2000 crop will come from the third flowering.

 

Fruit development during the first semester of 2000 was somewhat affected by below average rainfall and high temperatures which stressed trees in several growing regions. Crop management factors, such as the use of fertilizers and agri-chemicals, were also affected by the water deficit in citrus growing areas. Many producers were able to use fertilizers only twice during the short rainfall season (late November-April), instead of three times. Many producers also used lower-cost and lower-quality inputs due to lower orange prices received during 1999. As a consequence, a smaller size fruit is expected for the 1999/2000 crop. Disease related problems also hurt the 1999/2000 crop.

 

The new crop harvest season for processing started at a slower than normal pace. Reports indicate crushing plants will not be fully operational before August, rather than July, because of the delay in fruit maturation. If the quality of the fruit resulting from the third bloom is good, crushing operations should be extended through the first couple of months of 2001. Generally, the annual processing season is largely over in late December. An estimated 68 percent of the orange crop in Brazil is forecast to be processed. Fresh consumption makes up the majority of the rest of the crop. Only a small amount--less than 1 percent–of the crop is exported as fresh oranges.

 

South Africa

 

Total citrus production in South Africa is forecast at 1.4 million tons in 1999/2000, up 6 percent year over year. Production areas received sufficient rain during the season, which contributed to the overall increase in production. Orange production is forecast to account for 77 percent of the total. Orange production is forecast at 1.05 million tons, up nearly 6 percent from 1998/99. Bearing trees were up an estimated 4 percent, which, in addition to the favorable weather, increased output. Orange exports are forecast at 520,000 tons, up 4 percent, continuing the upward trend of exports following the deregulation of the agricultural marketing sector.

 

Grapefruit production in South Africa during 1999/2000 is forecast to increase to 200,000 tons from 194,000 tons. About 75 percent of South Africa’s production of grapefruit is destined for the export market. Lemon production is forecast at 110,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from last year. Although lemon area has stabilized, the number of bearing trees rose slightly, and the weather was good for production. About 45 percent of the crop is expected to be exported.

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Fresh Citrus industries for more than 10 countries. For information on production and trade, contact Debra A. Pumphrey at 202-720-8899. For information on marketing contact Ted Goldammer at 202-720-8498.)

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000