tomato situation and outlook

Processed Tomato Products Situation and Outlook in Selected Countries

Production of tomatoes for processing in 11 major producing countries in 2000 is forecast at 22.4 million tons, down 7 percent from a record output in 1999. The decline was attributed mainly to a 16 percent drop in U.S. output and a 7 percent decline in Western Mediterranean countries, with Italy accounting for the region’s largest decline. Production of tomato paste in selected countries, excluding the United States, in 2000/2001 is forecast at 1.48 million tons, down 8 percent from last year’s record level, due mostly to abundant supplies and lower prices. Production of canned tomato pack in selected countries in 2000/2001 is forecast at 2.1 million tons, down 11 percent from the previous year’s record, due primarily to an expected decline in Italian output. During this same period, exports of tomato paste from selected countries are forecast at 1 million tons, unchanged from 1999/2000, while exports of canned tomato pack are forecast at 908,000 tons, up 3 percent from 1999/2000.

Western Hemisphere

In the United States, production of processing tomatoes under contract in 2000 is estimated at 9.6 million tons, down 16 percent from 1999. The decline in output is due mainly to a reduction in area caused by large carryover of stocks and lower wholesale prices for tomato products during the marketing year, following last year’s record crop. California accounts for about 95 percent of the U.S. processing tomato crop. The bulk of U.S. tomatoes for processing is for tomato paste output.
U.S. exports of tomato products (canned tomatoes, tomato paste, ketchup and tomato sauce) in calendar year 1999 totaled 273,000 tons valued at $226 million, down 6 percent in volume and 2 percent in value from 1998. Canada remained the biggest U.S. customer for tomato paste, sauce and canned tomatoes, while Japan was the top market for U.S. ketchup. U.S. imports of processed tomato products (canned tomatoes, ketchup, tomato paste and sauce) during the same period totaled 164,000 tons valued at $116 million, up 7 percent in volume and 10 percent in value from 1998, due mostly to sizeable increases in paste imports from Chile and Mexico.

In Mexico, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 240,000 tons, down 35 percent from the revised level in 1999, due to less planted area. The reduction is attributed to oversupply problems and lower prices from last year’s record production. Tomato paste production in Mexico in 2000/2001 (March to February) is forecast at 36,000 tons, down 32 percent from the revised volume in 1999, due mainly to high international stocks. Exports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico to the United States, are also expected to be down in 2000 due to supply pressure against the U.S. minimum floor price of $5.27 per 25-pound box.

In Brazil, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 1.0 million tons, down 18 percent from the revised level in the previous year, because of lower yields, disease and pest problems in Bahia Region, and large carryover of paste stocks. Nearly all of Brazil’s processing tomatoes are made into paste. Output of tomato paste in 2000 is forecast at 110,000 tons, also down 18 percent, due mainly to lower Brix yields and high paste stocks.

In Chile, output of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 975,000 tons, up 3 percent from 1999, due largely to an increase in planted area. Tomatoes for processing in Chile are planted from mid-September through December of each year and harvested from January 10 to April 15. Output of tomato paste in 2000 is forecast at 115,000 tons, down 2 percent from 1999 in spite of an expected larger output of tomatoes for processing, due to poor fruit quality caused by a delay of the harvesting season.

Mediterranean Area

Production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 in the major producing countries in the European Union (EU) is forecast at 6.8 million tons, about the same as the previous year.

In Spain, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 1.7 million tons, down slightly from 1999, due primarily to a reduction in planted area. Canned tomato production for the same period is forecast at 229,000 tons, down 1 percent from 1999 as a result of fewer deliveries of fruit to processors. Tomato paste production in 2000 is forecast at 184,000 tons, down 4 percent from the previous year as a result of fewer deliveries of fruit to processors, as well. Spain is a net exporter of fresh, canned and other tomato products, with very little market opportunities existing for U.S. exports of these products.

In Portugal, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 970,000 tons, down 3 percent from 1999, due mainly to dry weather conditions existing early in the growing season. Portugal’s output of processed tomato products consist mainly of tomato paste. Tomato paste production in Portugal in 2000 is forecast at 160,000 tons, down 15 percent from last year due mostly to lower area caused by dry weather. Tomato paste exports, accounting for the bulk of Portugal’s tomato paste production, are forecast at 125,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year. As Portugal is self-sufficient in tomato and tomato products production, there are few opportunities to export U.S. tomato products to Portugal.

In Greece, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 1.3 million tons, down 4 percent from a year ago, due largely to lower planted area. In spite of reduced area, production of tomato paste in Greece in 2000 is forecast at 209,000 tons, up 3 percent from 1999, due mostly to improved quality of fruit delivered to processors and expected higher Brix yields. Canned tomato production in 2000 is forecast at 31,000 tons, up 2 percent from 1999, due mostly to increased deliveries to processors.
In Italy, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 4.4 million tons, down 10 percent from the previous year, due mainly to reduced acreage resulting from large carryover stocks. Production of canned tomatoes for the same period is forecast at 1.8 million tons, down 12 percent from 1999, due primarily to the surplus stocks situation. At the same time, tomato paste output in 2000 is forecast at 330,000 tons, down 12 percent from 1999.
In Turkey, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 1.7 million tons, down 17 percent from the previous year, due mainly to reduced area, because of farmers’ dissatisfaction with the cash returns received for industrial tomatoes last year. Also, processors in Turkey are cautious about the potentially large output in California and extremely low export prices offered by China, and are not willing to increase their overall production volume this year. Production of tomato paste in 2000 is forecast at 260,000 tons, down 16 percent from 1999, due mostly to reduced area and large carryover of paste stocks.

In France, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 330,000 tons, down 9 percent from 1999, due mostly to lower planted area. Production of tomato paste accounts for the bulk of processed tomatoes in France. In 2000, output of paste is forecast at 43,000 tons, down 11 percent from the previous year, due mostly to a decrease in fruit delivered to processors. Production of canned tomatoes for the same period is forecast at 29,000 tons, also down 11 percent from 1999. France continues to be a net importer of both canned tomatoes and tomato paste. There is almost no trade between the United States and France for these products.

In Israel, production of tomatoes for processing in 2000 is forecast at 256,000 tons, down 17 percent from the revised output in 1999, because of reduced area, high carryover stocks for processed products (canned tomatoes, tomato paste and sauce), and stiff international competition in the EU market for these products. In 2000, production of tomato paste in Israel is forecast at 28,000 tons, down 23 percent from the previous year, due mostly to fewer deliveries to processors. Exports continue to account for about 70 percent of Israel’s tomato paste pack.

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on Tomatoes and Tomato Products industries for more than 10 countries, including the United States, Italy and Chile. For information on supply and demand, please contact Emanuel McNeil at (202) 720-2083. For information on marketing issues contact Elizabeth Mello at (202) 720-9903.)

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000