World Raisin Situation and Outlook

Southern Hemisphere

 

Australia

 

The 1999/2000 (March 2000 - February 2001) raisin crop is expected to rise by 48 percent to 32,500 tons. Recent developments in production techniques, such as trellis drying, are driving this increase in production. At the same time, winemakers, which had been purchasing sultana grapes for the production of certain types of wine, have greatly reduced their intake of sultana varieties. This alone is expected to increase the supply of raisins by 4,000 to 5,000 tons. Despite this increase, raisin production is still not expected to reach the record level achieved in 1997/98. Raisin production in 1998/99 was changed from 20,700 tons to 22,000 tons in line with revised industry estimates. Unfavorable weather during 1998/99 led to a 43 percent decline in production compared to 1997/98.

 

Exports during 1999/2000 are expected to reach 10,000 tons, up 87 percent from 1998/99 as a result of the larger than expected raisin crop. Raisin exports fell in 1998/99 by 63 percent to 5,337 tons due to a sharp reduction in production. The major export markets in 1998/99 were Canada, Germany, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Japan. Raisin imports increased 11 percent in 1998/99 to 12,714 tons, but with greater production expected in 1999/2000, raisin imports are forecast to decline by 10 percent to 11,500 tons. Turkey continues to be the largest supplier of raisins in Australia, with 55 percent of the market.

 

Chile

 

Raisin production is forecast down 14 percent to 31,000 tons in 1999/2000 (January 2000 - December 2000) as a result of a significant decline in export prices due to weak export demand. Weak demand has also caused prices for discarded grapes, which are dried for raisins, to fall in 2000 from an average of U.S. $0.20 per kg to U.S. $0.10 per kg.

 

During 1998/99, raisin production was significantly higher than initially estimated and 29 percent above the previous year. Raisin production had been expected to decline in 1998/99 due to smaller table grape production and increased competition by the wine and juice concentrate industries for grapes discarded by the fresh fruit industry. However, there was less competition from the wine industry in light of increasing production by newly planted vineyards dedicated to wine grapes. Higher raisin prices together with a strong export demand also had a positive effect on total raisin production during 1998/99.

 

Exports are expected to fall by 17 percent to 27,000 tons in1999/2000 due to a decline in raisin production. Over 90 percent of Chile’s raisin production is exported. The largest destinations for Chile’s raisins are the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Peru and Colombia. Chile does not import raisins.

 

South Africa

 

Raisin production is forecast to decline by 11 percent in 1999/2000 (January 2000 - December 2000) as a result of poor weather conditions during the fruit drying period. Production is expected to reach 36,000 tons in 1999/2000 compared to 40,438 tons in 1998/99.

 

Exports during 1999/2000 are expected to increase slightly to about 26,500 tons. The European Union is South Africa’s major export destination point for agricultural products, including dried fruit. South Africa’s major markets during1998/99 were the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, France and Japan.

 

Under the EU-South African Free Trade Agreement, South African dried fruit will soon be subject to preferential tariff quotas in the European market. However these products will not have duty free entry that other South African products will eventually enjoy.

 

Northern Hemisphere

 

Greece

The 1999/2000 raisin crop (September 1999 - August 2000) has been revised downwards to 22,500 tons, a 20 percent decline from the previous year. Hot and dry conditions during the growing period combined with wet weather during the fruit drying period negatively affected the quality and output of the 1999/2000 raisin crop. Raisin production in 1998/99 has also been revised down to 28,000 tons and was of good quality.

 

Raisin exports are expected to fall from 24,000 tons in 1998/99 to 22,000 tons in 1999/2000. Greece’s official trade data reports that in 2000, raisin exports to Australia have increased sharply. During 1998/99 major markets for Greece’s raisins were Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Poland and Canada.

 

Turkey

 

Raisin production during 1999/2000 (September 1999 - August 2000) remains unchanged from the earlier forecast of 190,000 tons. After two consecutive years of excellent crops and record highs, raisin production is thus expected to fall by 24 percent during 1999/2000 compared to the previous year. Crop disease and hail in some producing areas resulted in smaller and lower quality raisins.

 

Exports during 1998/99 are expected to be up slightly from 186,700 tons to 190,000 tons, despite the small crop. Between September 1999 and April 2000, the largest destinations for Turkey’s raisins were to the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Imports are expected fall from 3,131 tons in 1997/98 to 3,000 tons in 1998/99, a 4 percent decline. The import duty for raisins in 2000 is 57.3 percent of the CIF value on raisin imports.

 

United States

 

Raisin production in 1999/2000 has been revised up from 267,183 tons to 297,557 tons, up 18 percent from the previous year.

 

Exports are estimated to fall 23 percent in 1999/2000 to reach 85,000 tons as a result of strong domestic demand and low stock levels. Year to date (August 1999 - April 2000) raisin exports are 60,000 tons. Major markets for U.S. raisins include Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden and Denmark. Imports are also estimated to fall from a high of 24,750 tons in 1998/99 to 18,000 tons in 1999/2000, as a result of the larger raisin crop.

 

For the 2000/01 marketing year (August 2000-July 2001), the Raisin Administrative Committee (RAC) has received a budget ceiling of $2.07 million to market California raisins under the Market Access Program (MAP). MAP funding is allocated for the same markets targeted in 1999/2000 and include China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Scandinavia (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), Singapore, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. The RAC’s primary objectives in these markets are to increase consumer and trade awareness of the quality of California raisins, and to show the product’s versatility in baking and cooking.

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit industries for 6 countries, including Australia, Chile and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Karina Ramos at 202-720-0897. For information on marketing contact Kelly Strzelecki at 202-690-1341.)

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000