World Raisin Situation and
- Raisin production in selected
countries is expected to fall in 1999/2000, for
the second consecutive year. Smaller raisin crops
in Chile, South Africa, Greece, Turkey and Mexico
in 1999/2000 will lead to a 4 percent decline in
world raisin production. Only Australia and the
United States are expected to post increases in
raisin production during 1999/2000. As a result
of the smaller raisin crop, exports for selected
countries are expected to be down 8 percent to
365,000 tons in 1999/2000. Australia is the only
country that estimates a significant increase in
exports. Australias raisin exports are
forecast to rise 87 percent to 10,000 tons, still
far below the average level of raisin exports.
- The 1999/2000 (March 2000 -
February 2001) raisin crop is expected to rise by 48
percent to 32,500 tons. Recent developments in production
techniques, such as trellis drying, are driving this
increase in production. At the same time, winemakers,
which had been purchasing sultana grapes for the
production of certain types of wine, have greatly reduced
their intake of sultana varieties. This alone is expected
to increase the supply of raisins by 4,000 to 5,000 tons.
Despite this increase, raisin production is still not
expected to reach the record level achieved in 1997/98.
Raisin production in 1998/99 was changed from 20,700 tons
to 22,000 tons in line with revised industry estimates.
Unfavorable weather during 1998/99 led to a 43 percent
decline in production compared to 1997/98.
- Exports during 1999/2000 are
expected to reach 10,000 tons, up 87 percent from 1998/99
as a result of the larger than expected raisin crop.
Raisin exports fell in 1998/99 by 63 percent to 5,337
tons due to a sharp reduction in production. The major
export markets in 1998/99 were Canada, Germany, New
Zealand, the United Kingdom and Japan. Raisin imports
increased 11 percent in 1998/99 to 12,714 tons, but with
greater production expected in 1999/2000, raisin imports
are forecast to decline by 10 percent to 11,500 tons.
Turkey continues to be the largest supplier of raisins in
Australia, with 55 percent of the market.
- Raisin production is
forecast down 14 percent to 31,000 tons in 1999/2000
(January 2000 - December 2000) as a result of a
significant decline in export prices due to weak export
demand. Weak demand has also caused prices for discarded
grapes, which are dried for raisins, to fall in 2000 from
an average of U.S. $0.20 per kg to U.S. $0.10 per kg.
- During 1998/99, raisin
production was significantly higher than initially
estimated and 29 percent above the previous year. Raisin
production had been expected to decline in 1998/99 due to
smaller table grape production and increased competition
by the wine and juice concentrate industries for grapes
discarded by the fresh fruit industry. However, there was
less competition from the wine industry in light of
increasing production by newly planted vineyards
dedicated to wine grapes. Higher raisin prices together
with a strong export demand also had a positive effect on
total raisin production during 1998/99.
- Exports are expected to fall
by 17 percent to 27,000 tons in1999/2000 due to a decline
in raisin production. Over 90 percent of Chiles
raisin production is exported. The largest destinations
for Chiles raisins are the United States, Mexico,
Brazil, Peru and Colombia. Chile does not import raisins.
- South Africa
- Raisin production is
forecast to decline by 11 percent in 1999/2000 (January
2000 - December 2000) as a result of poor weather
conditions during the fruit drying period. Production is
expected to reach 36,000 tons in 1999/2000 compared to
40,438 tons in 1998/99.
- Exports during 1999/2000 are
expected to increase slightly to about 26,500 tons. The
European Union is South Africas major export
destination point for agricultural products, including
dried fruit. South Africas major markets
during1998/99 were the United Kingdom, the Netherlands,
Germany, Canada, France and Japan.
- Under the EU-South African
Free Trade Agreement, South African dried fruit will soon
be subject to preferential tariff quotas in the European
market. However these products will not have duty free
entry that other South African products will eventually
- The 1999/2000 raisin crop
(September 1999 - August 2000) has been revised downwards
to 22,500 tons, a 20 percent decline from the previous
year. Hot and dry conditions during the growing period
combined with wet weather during the fruit drying period
negatively affected the quality and output of the
1999/2000 raisin crop. Raisin production in 1998/99 has
also been revised down to 28,000 tons and was of good
- Raisin exports are expected
to fall from 24,000 tons in 1998/99 to 22,000 tons in
1999/2000. Greeces official trade data reports that
in 2000, raisin exports to Australia have increased
sharply. During 1998/99 major markets for Greeces
raisins were Germany, the Netherlands, the United
Kingdom, France, Poland and Canada.
- Raisin production during
1999/2000 (September 1999 - August 2000) remains
unchanged from the earlier forecast of 190,000 tons.
After two consecutive years of excellent crops and record
highs, raisin production is thus expected to fall by 24
percent during 1999/2000 compared to the previous year.
Crop disease and hail in some producing areas resulted in
smaller and lower quality raisins.
- Exports during 1998/99 are
expected to be up slightly from 186,700 tons to 190,000
tons, despite the small crop. Between September 1999 and
April 2000, the largest destinations for Turkeys
raisins were to the United Kingdom, Germany, the
Netherlands and Italy. Imports are expected fall from
3,131 tons in 1997/98 to 3,000 tons in 1998/99, a 4
percent decline. The import duty for raisins in 2000 is
57.3 percent of the CIF value on raisin imports.
- United States
- Raisin production in
1999/2000 has been revised up from 267,183 tons to
297,557 tons, up 18 percent from the previous year.
- Exports are estimated to
fall 23 percent in 1999/2000 to reach 85,000 tons as a
result of strong domestic demand and low stock levels.
Year to date (August 1999 - April 2000) raisin exports
are 60,000 tons. Major markets for U.S. raisins include
Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden and Denmark.
Imports are also estimated to fall from a high of 24,750
tons in 1998/99 to 18,000 tons in 1999/2000, as a result
of the larger raisin crop.
- For the 2000/01 marketing
year (August 2000-July 2001), the Raisin Administrative
Committee (RAC) has received a budget ceiling of $2.07
million to market California raisins under the Market
Access Program (MAP). MAP funding is allocated for the
same markets targeted in 1999/2000 and include China,
Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Scandinavia
(Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), Singapore,
Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. The RACs primary
objectives in these markets are to increase consumer and
trade awareness of the quality of California raisins, and
to show the products versatility in baking and
- (The FAS Attache
Report search engine contains reports on the Dried Fruit
industries for 6 countries, including Australia, Chile
and South Africa. For information on
production and trade, contact Karina Ramos at
202-720-0897. For information on marketing contact Kelly
Strzelecki at 202-690-1341.)
Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000