apple juice

Outlook for Concentrated Apple Juice Production and Trade
in Selected Countries

Production of apple juice (AJ) in selected countries in 1999/2000 is estimated at 633,000 tons (70/71 degrees brix equivalent), 7 percent below the previous season’s output. The downturn mainly reflects a sharp decrease in Polish and Argentine AJ production. On the other hand, production in 1999/200 in the United States, the world’s largest producer, is estimated to increase modestly to 150,000 tons. Exports of AJ from selected countries in 1999/2000 are estimated at 523,000 tons, 3 percent below last season’s shipments, due primarily to expected reduced exportable supplies from Argentina. U.S. AJ exports in 1999/2000, however, are expected to increase for the first time in three years. Strong demand from major customers, such as Japan, Canada, Venezuela, and Taiwan has improved overall U.S. 1999/2000 AJ export prospects. U.S. AJ imports are expected to continue to increase in 1999/2000 to 225,000 tons.

Northern Hemisphere

United States

U.S. AJ production in 1999/2000 is estimated at 150,000 tons, up 3 percent from the1998/99 output. Increased apple production in some of the major eastern apple processing states, such as New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia has improved overall U.S. AJ production in 1999/2000. Processing of apples in 1999/2000 is expected to increase 21 percent in New York, 33 percent in Michigan, 41 percent in Pennsylvania, and 38 percent in Virginia. Normally, about 35 percent of New York’s apples for processing are diverted to the juice and cider industries compared with 40 percent in Michigan and 25 percent in Pennsylvania.

U.S. AJ imports in 1999/2000 are estimated at 225,000 tons, up 3 percent from last season, based on higher imports to date. AJ imports into the United States, which are mostly concentrated non-frozen, totaled 128,119 tons, 70/71 degrees brix equivalent, for the period July 1999 through January 2000, up 9 percent from the same period last season. The increase mainly reflects more imports from Argentina and Chile, which are running ahead 65 percent and 95 percent, respectively, from the same period last season. Although overall U.S. AJ imports for the period July 1999 through January 2000 were up 9 percent, imports from China decreased 72 percent. The decrease likely reflects the dumping investigation initiated last year by the U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration (ITA), against low-cost AJ concentrate from China. As such, on Thursday, April 6, 2000 the ITA announced final antidumping duties on AJ imports from China. Dumping margins were established between 0 percent and 52 percent, down slightly from the November 1999 preliminary calculation of 55 percent. Correspondingly, on Monday, May 22, 2000 the International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to issue its final injury ruling. If ITC determines that injury or threat of material injury does exist, the Department of Commerce will issue an antidumping order directing Customs officials to assess antidumping duties on all imports of Chinese non-frozen AJ concentrate.

The ITA final dumping ruling on Chinese AJ should help improve domestic prices for apple products. There is already some indication that import prices for AJ are firming up. For the period July 1999 to January 2000, average AJ import prices for all countries are up almost 30 percent from the same period last season. During the same period, average prices for AJ from China increased 31 percent. Industry sources in the Pacific Northwest report that, as of March 15, 2000, season to date prices for juice apples in the northwest are estimated around $120 per ton, compared to an average of $40 per ton last season.

U.S. AJ exports in 1999/2000 are expected to increase for the first time in three years, based on higher shipments to date. As such, AJ exports are estimated at 8,000 tons in 1999/2000, up 25 percent from shipments last season. For the period July 1999 through January 2000, U.S. AJ exports totaled 4,200 tons, 70/71 degrees brix equivalent, up 25 percent from the same period last season. Exports to Japan, Canada, and Venezuela are running ahead 23 percent, 26 percent, and more than 270 percent, respectively. Strong demand from these countries is expected to continue throughout the season.

Poland

Poland is the one of the world’s leading AJ producing and exporting countries. Poland’s AJ production in 1999/2000 is estimated at 110,000 tons, 15 percent below the 1998/99 output. Tight supplies of processing apples will likely hamper Polish AJ production for the second consecutive season. In Poland, around 60 percent of the apple crop is processed, while most of the remaining 40 percent is directed to the fresh domestic market. Processed apple products include concentrated juice, fruit beverage, wine, and jam.

Although Polish AJ production in 1999/2000 is expected lower, exports are estimated to recover to 115,000 tons, 10 percent above 1998/99 shipments. The increase reflects larger available stocks, the result of lower AJ sales to Germany in 1998/99. Most Polish AJ production is exported (about 95 percent) to neighboring countries. Germany is by far the leading customer, normally accounting for more than 80 percent of total Polish AJ exports.

Southern Hemisphere

Argentina

Argentina is the leading AJ producer in the Southern Hemisphere. Argentine production of AJ in 1999/2000 is estimated at 51,600 tons, down sharply from 1997/98. Fewer apples are expected to be processed this season, reflecting a much smaller fresh crop. Traditionally, apples not suitable for the fresh domestic and export markets are processed. An estimated 80 percent of Argentina's processed apples go to AJ, 15 percent are used for cider, and 5 percent are dried or processed into jams, vinegar, and other products.

Argentina is the third largest AJ exporter for selected countries following Germany and Poland. Exports of AJ in 1999/2000 are estimated at 51,600 tons, more than 30 percent behind last season’s shipments, due to lower exportable supplies. The United States is by far Argentina’s major AJ market, accounting for more than 95 percent of total shipments.

Chile

Chile’s AJ production in 1999/2000 is estimated at 24,000 tons, down more than 20 percent from the 1998/99 output, mainly the result of a lower apple crop and, as such, reduced processing. There are six juice processing plants in Chile with excess production capacity. Traditionally, apples not suitable for the fresh export market, are processed into apple juice.

Chilean AJ production is mainly directed to the export market. Chile’s AJ exports in 1999/2000 are estimated at 23,000 tons, down 23 percent from 1998/99. The United States is Chile's largest AJ customer, accounting for more than 70 percent of total export sales. However, the importance of other markets, such as Japan, Canada, and Australia is increasing. Only small amounts of AJ are consumed domestically, principally single-strength type.

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the apple juice industry industry for more than 10 countries, including Argentina, Chile, and Germany. For further information on supply, distribution, and trade, contact Samuel Rosa at (202) 720-6086.)

Last modified: Wednesday, February 20, 2002