Situation and Outlook for
continue to fall as a result of world oversupply. Total
world supplies are forecast at a record 106,010 tons for
1999/2000, up 5 percent from last year. Forecasted
acreage and yield increases in Australia and South
Africa, the worlds first and third largest
producers, respectively, are expected to increase world
supplies to 116,547 tons in 2000/2001. The lingering
effects of the economic crisis in Asia, the largest
regional market for U.S. exports, continue to hold down
Asian demand for U.S. macadamia nuts. Stiff competition
from other macadamia producing countries is also
weakening demand for U.S. exports. Exports from selected
countries are forecast to increase 8 percent to a record
41,912 tons. Australia remains the worlds largest
exporter of macadamias, accounting for more than 40
percent of total world exports. The United States, the
worlds second largest producer, is the largest
single export market for Australia, South Africa,
Guatemala, Brazil, and Costa Rica.
- United States
- U.S. macadamia nut production in 1999/2000 is forecast at
24,040 tons, 8 percent below the 1998/99 crop, due to
drought-like conditions throughout most of 1999. Output
for 2000/2001 is expected to remain at the same level.
Exports in 1999/2000 are forecast to decrease 12 percent
from last year to 3,000 tons, due to decreased demand
from Asia, the largest market for U.S. macadamia exports,
and increased competition from imports. The United States
exports mostly prepared or preserved macadamias. With the
exception of Hong Kong, sales to the Asian market are
down significantly compared to this same period last
year. While sales to date for Hong Kong are up 83
percent, sales to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are down an
average of 45 percent. Japan is the largest single
country market, purchasing over 50 percent of U.S.
macadamia exports. With no strong recovery expected in
Asian demand, macadamia exports for 2000/2001 are
forecast to remain the same as 1999/2000.
- U.S. imports in 1999/2000 are forecast to increase 8
percent to 20,000 tons, due to increased production in
other countries and low Asian demand. Other macadamia
producers grow solely for export, primarily to the United
States, the worlds largest macadamia consumer.
Rising U.S. consumer income and spending has been a
factor in soaking up some of the excess in world
supplies. Additionally, U.S. food processors report
difficulties in procuring a steady 12-month supply from
Hawaii. The majority of macadamia imports are bulk and
industrial product intended for processing.
- The Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service (HASS) reports
that in shell grower prices averaged $.67/lb, a 3 percent
increase from 1998/99. Although prices received by some
growers were lower than last season, the overall average
was influenced in part by higher, long-term contract
- Australia is the worlds largest macadamia producer.
Output in 1999/2000 is forecast at 34,000 tons, the same
as the 1998/99 record crop, due to the crops
alternate bearing cycle. Macadamia production for
2000/2001 is forecast to increase to 39,100 tons, up 15
percent from 1999/2000, due to increasing acreage, better
yields, and more trees coming into production. The
Australian macadamia nut industry is highly export
oriented, exporting over 50 percent of production.
Exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 18,100 tons, only a
slight increase from 1998/99. In 1999/2000, exports are
forecast to increase 17 percent to 21,100 tons, due to
the larger crop. The United States is still the major
single country market for Australian macadamia exports.
However, the Asian market, which Japan and Hong Kong
dominate, accounted for about 43 percent of total exports
in 1998/99. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS)
estimates that grower prices fell about 12 percent from
1998 to 1999 to A$2.20, reflecting the world oversupply
- South Africa
- The 1999/2000 harvest is expected to increase 18 percent
from last year to 8,000 tons, due to increased acreage
and trees coming into full production. This is expected
to continue for the next few years, as more than 50
percent of planted trees will come into bearing age.
Output for 2000/2001 is forecast to increase another 19
percent to 9,500 tons. If current trends continue,
macadamia production could reach 20,000 tons by 2005.
Exports in 1999/2000 are also expected to rise, up 14
percent from 1998/99 to 7,650 tons. In 2000/2001, exports
are forecast at 9,090, an increase of 19 percent from
1999/2000. South Africa exports over 80 percent of total
production, with the United States and Europe being the
biggest importers, accounting for 59 percent and 29
percent of total 1998/99 exports, respectively. With
current high world supply levels, increasing worldwide
production, and modest demand in their two main markets,
South African grower prices have fallen about 20 percent
from 1997/98 to 1998/99.
- Macadamia output for 1999/2000 is forecast at 6,000 tons,
down 8 percent from last year, due mainly to premature
nut harvest and bad weather. Production for 2000/2001 is
forecast to increase slightly due to improved agronomic
practices and increased plantings. Exports are forecast
to increase to 6,481 tons in 1999/2000, up 19 percent
from last season, due to the increasing export oriented
nature of the industry. Japan and the United States are
the primary export destinations, accounting for 58
percent and 32 percent of total exports, respectively.
- In 1999/2000, macadamia nut production is forecast at
4,000 tons, an increase of 43 percent from last year.
Output for 2000/2001 is to increase to 7,200, an increase
of 80 percent. This upward trend is mainly due to new
trees coming into full production. Guatemala exports
nearly all of its macadamia production, with the United
States and the European Union receiving 80 percent and 11
percent of 1998/99 shipments, respectively. World
oversupply and the lingering effects
of the Asian crisis precipitated a substantial drop in
macadamia prices; FOB sale prices have dropped 37 percent
to USD$2.20/lb between 1998 and 1999.
- In 1999/2000, Brazils output of macadamias is
expected to rise 2 percent to 2,000 tons, as a result of
more trees coming into production. This trend is expected
to continue, with production expected to rise an
additional 10 percent to 2,200 tons in 2000/2001. Exports
are forecast to increase 3 percent in 1999/2000 and a
further 10 percent in 2000/2001, reflecting the increased
competitiveness of the Real as a result of last
years currency devaluation. The United States and
the European Union are Brazils top two export
markets, receiving 50 percent and 12 percent of macadamia
shipments in 1998/99, respectively.
- Costa Rica
- Macadamia production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 2,000
tons, the same as last year. Output for 2000/2001 is
expected to remain the same. In response to several years
of low nut prices, producers are switching to other
crops. Consolidation in the industry has left only one
large macadamia producer in the country. Exports totaled
1,681 tons in 1998/99 and are expected to increase 13
percent in 1999/2000, comprising 95 percent of total
production. Costa Ricas main export market is the
United States, which accounted for 77 percent of total
exports in 1998/99.
- (The FAS Attache Report search engine contains
reports on the macadamia industry for 6 countries,
including Australia, Guatemala, Kenya, and South Africa.
For information on production and trade, contact Lisa
Anderson at 202 720-5028).
Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000